Observatorio ARVAL

Meteorology for South Florida and the Caribbean

The Moist Tropical Climate of the Caribbean
The Moist Tropical Climate of South Florida
Images from the Meteorological Satellites
Graphic Weather Forecasts
Tides
Hurricanes
Other Local Meteorological Forecasts
Global Warming?

Astronomy for South Florida (Fair Weather Astronomy - Separate Page)
   - Calendar of Astronomical Events

The Moist Tropical Climate of the Caribbean:

The Trade Winds from the Northeast are dominant in the climate of the Caribbean, they are weaker and variable during the Northern Hemisphere Summer, in July, August and September.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is an area of low atmospheric pressure that forms where the Northeastern Trade Winds meet with those from the Southeast, near the Equator. When these winds converge, the warm and moist air is forced to rise. This causes the water vapor it contains to condense as the air rises and cools, resulting in a band of strong precipitation around the globe.
Precipitations in the ITCZ show a dairy cycle: The clouds form late in the morning and early in the afternoon, and between 3 and 4 PM, the warmest hours of the day, the storms form and the precipitations start.
This band moves with the seasons of the year, always attracted to the areas of higher intensity of Solar heating, with grater surface temperatures. It moves towards the Southern Hemisphere from September to February and changes direction in April, May and June, before the Northern Hemisphere Summer.
The ITCZ is always to the Southeast of Venezuelan territory, but is nearer and affects it during the Northern Hemisphere Summer. The ITCZ is less mobile over the oceanic longitudes.
The variation in the location of the ITCZ dramatically affects the precipitations in the equatorial regions, resulting in a humid season (from May to November) and a dry one (from December to April) between the Tropics of Cancer (23.5° N) and Capricorn (23.5° S), instead of the cold and warm of higher latitudes (Temperate Climates).

Tropical moist climates extend northward and southward from the equator to about 15° to 25° of latitude. In these climates all months have average temperatures greater than 18° Celsius (64° F). Annual precipitation is greater than 1,500 mm.

See Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (NASA - JAXA)

The Moist Tropical Climate of South Florida:

South Florida is the only region in the continental U.S. that has a Moist Tropical Climate.
The Moist Tropical Climate of southern Florida borders the Moist Subtropical Mid-Latitude Climate of central and northern Florida. This Subtropical climate generally has hot muggy summers and frequent thunderstorms, with mild winters. Its extent is from 30° to 50° of latitude, mainly on the eastern and western borders of most continents.

The border between the Florida Tropical and Subtropical climates, according to Wladimir Köppen (1918) is a line from Vero Beach to the South of Lake Okeechobee, to Fort Myers, to Punta Gorda, to Tarpon Springs.

Southern Florida is a Tropical Savannah, dominated by the Everglades. It shows pronounced, alternaing, wet and dry seasons. During the rainy season, from May to October, southern Florida shows frequently cloudy skies, high humidity and warmer temperatures. During the dry season, from November to April, southern Florida shows frequently clear skies, low humidity and colder temperatures.
There is a narrow coastal transitional strip from near Fort Pierce to Miami with a shorter dry season.

In Southern Florida the winds normally come from the East all year long. These winds tend to block cold air intrusions from the north. All months have average temperatures greater than 18° Celsius (64° F). Annual precipitation is greater than 1,500 mm. The temperature variations are kept very small by the waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.

See "The Climate and Weather of Florida", James A. Henry, Kenneth M. Portier and Jan Coyne, 1994. Pineapple Press, Sarasota, Florida.

See The Rains & Temperatures in South Florida (monthly averages) [in ARVAL]

ITCZ, Pressure and Wind at Sea Level:

The graphics show the center of the ITCZ (red line) and the atmospheric pressure (colors), velocity and direction at sea level (black arrows), in January and July (39 years average).

See Global Scale Circulation of the Atmosphere, Tropical Weather and Hurricanes, Chapter 7: Introduction to the Atmosphere. Fundamentals of Physical Geography - Dr. Michael Pidwirny, University of British Columbia Okanagan (PhysicalGeography.net).
See Understanding the ITCZ (International Research Institute for Climate and Society).

El Niño and La Niña are natural oscillations of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific that have important consequences for weather around the globe. Current science can detect them, but not predict them in the long term.
They are part of a phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a continual but irregular cycle (of about 3 to 7 years) of shifts in ocean and atmospheric conditions that affect the global climate.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to La Niña, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
Among these consequences are increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia.

Negative values of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) represent the cold ENSO phase (La Niña), while positive values of the MEI represent the warm phase (El Niño). See ESRL-PSD: Multivariate ENSO Index (NOAA).

El Niño strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

"El Niño events release heat from the tropical Pacific, and through ocean currents and changes in atmospheric circulation, they raise surface temperatures outside of the tropical Pacific."

"During La Niña events, the tropical Pacific releases less heat than normal, and global temperatures decline."

"La Niña events are a vital portion of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) coupled ocean-atmosphere process. La Niña events recharge the heat released from the tropical Pacific during the El Niño."

"Note that most La Niña events do not fully recharge the heat released by the El Niño events."

"During a La Niña event, tropical Pacific trade winds rise above normal levels. The increase in trade winds reduces cloud cover. Reduced cloud cover allows more Downward Shortwave Radiation (visible light) to warm the tropical Pacific."

"Contrary to the beliefs of anthropogenic warming proponents the 1997/98 El Niño was NOT fueled by a long-term accumulation of heat from manmade greenhouse gases.
The 1997/98 El Niño was strong enough to temporarily raise Global Lower Troposphere Temperature anomalies ~0.7° C."

"The La Niña event of 1973/74/75/76 provided the tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content necessary for the increase in strength and frequency of El Niño events from 1976 to 1995. The 1995/96 La Niña furnished the Ocean Heat Content that served as fuel for the 1997/98 El Niño. And the 1998/99/00/01 La Niña recharged the tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content after the 1997/98 El Niño, returning it to the new higher level established by the La Niña of 1995/96."

Ver Tisdale on the importance of El Nino's little sister - recharging ocean heat content (Bob Tisdale, Feb. 13 '10, Watts Up With That).

See El Niño story, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (NOAA).
El Niño: online meteorology guide (WW2010, University of Illinois)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Project (Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array, NOAA)
El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere (The National Academies)

Images from the GOES East Meteorological Satellite (GOES-12):

Intellicast: Atlantic, Caribbean, Europe, South America, United States, World (Infrared).

Images from NOAA Satellite Services Division:
GOES East Satellite Imagery: (updated every 30 min.)
Eastern U.S.: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 10 Km, 23° to 53° N, 112° to 48° W]
Central Atlantic: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 3° to 33° N, 76° to 24° W]
West Atlantic: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 3° to 33° N, 106° to 54° W]
Caribbean: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 5° to 35° N, 90° to 40° W]
Puerto Rico: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 12° to 25° N, 77° to 54° W]
Gulf of Mexico: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 4 Km, 18° to 32° N, 102° to 75° W]
South Central US: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 25° to 35° N, 109° to 89° W]
Southeast US: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 24° to 33° N, 94° to 76° W]

Image Loops from NOAA Satellite Services Division:   [Adobe Flash]
GOES East Satellite Imagery: (latest 15 images, every 30 min.)
Eastern U.S.: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 10 Km, 23° to 53° N, 112° to 48° W]
Central Atlantic: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 3° to 33° N, 76° to 24° W]
West Atlantic: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 3° to 33° N, 106° to 54° W]
Caribbean: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 5° to 35° N, 90° to 40° W]
Puerto Rico: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 12° to 25° N, 77° to 54° W]
Gulf of Mexico: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 4 Km, 18° to 32° N, 102° to 75° W]
South Central US: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 25° to 35° N, 109° to 89° W]
Southeast US: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 24° to 33° N, 94° to 76° W]

[The most detailed information on South Florida is in the "Southeast US" sequences]

Images from the Naval Research Laboratory:
Naval Research Laboratory - Monterey, California (NRL-MRY):
West Tropic-Atlantic: (updated every 30 min.) [10° to 50° N, 100° to 0° W]
Visible Spectrum, Infrared Spectrum, Water Vapor Spectrum.
East Tropic-Atlantic: (updated every 30 min.) [0° to 40° N, 65° W to 65° E]
Visible Spectrum, Infrared Spectrum, Water Vapor Spectrum.
Multisat Stitched Atlantic Basin: (updated every 3 hours) [20° S to 55° N, 100° W to 10° E]
Visible Spectrum, Infrared Spectrum, Water Vapor Spectrum, Visible/Infrared Spectrum (Geo-Color).
Global-Atlantic: (updated every 3 hours) [75° S to 75° N, 150° to 0° W]
Visible Spectrum, Infrared Spectrum, Water Vapor Spectrum.
Cloud Winds (West Tropic-Atlantic): (updated every 6 hours) [0° to 45° N, 100° to 30° W]
Winds at low and medium Height (Visible Spectrum - 950, 800 to 600 mbar: 0,5, 1,5 to 4,3 Km),
Winds at medium Height (Infrared Spectrum - 950, 800, 600 to 400 mbar: 0,5, 1,5, 4,3 to 8,0 Km),
Winds at medium and great Height (Water Vapor Spectrum - 500, 350, 250 to 100 mbar: 5,5, 8,0, 10,5 to 13,7 Km),
Wind Shear - Low and High Level (Low-High Level Wind Shear, Knots).

[The easiest image to interpret is the "Visible/Infrared Spectrum (Geo-Color)"]

The images in the Visible spectrum are the closest to what we see with our own eyes, binoculars and telescopes. The images in the Infrared spectrum reveal heavier cloud cover, with condensation. The images in the Water Vapor spectrum reveal up to thin cloud cover and transparency (sky magnitude).

Global Hydrology and Climate Center - GOES
Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite Images (NASA GHCC)

Global Hydrology and Climate Center - GOES (en Español)
Imágenes Interactivas de Satélites Meteorológicos Geoestacionarios (NASA GHCC)

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES):
GOES-8 (in the GOES-EAST position) was a geostationary satellite, at some 35,800 Km of altitude, in Lat. 0°, Long 75° W. At his height, the orbital period of the satellite equals the rotational period of the Earth. It was launched in April 13, 1994 and stopped operating in May 5, 2004. In April 1, 2004 it was substituted by GOES-12, with a similar orbit but with higher resolution sensors that was launched in July 2001.

See NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

See Office of Satellite Operations (NOAA)

See Table of Contents for the GOES Imager Tutorial

Graphic Weather Forecasts:

Weather Underground:

Clear Sky Charts for Canada, USA and parts of Mexico - by Attilla Danko:

Miami Clear Sky Chart (Downtown, 25° 46.44' N, 80° 11.64' W)

Kirby Storter Roadside Park Clear Sky Chart (US-41, Big Cypress National Preserve, 25° 52.12' N, 81° 9.84' W)

Kendale Observatory Clear Sky Chart: (Kendall, 25° 41.69' N, 80° 25.79' W)

Heaven Sent Observatory Clear Sky Chart (Florida City entrance of the Everglades, 25° 24.7' N, 80° 32.1' W)

Winter Star Party (WSP) Clear Sky Chart (West Summerland Key, 24° 38.98' N, 81° 18.57' W)

Clear Sky Alarm Clock (Mark Casazza)

Astronomy Sky Conditions (Environment Canada):
Regional model, satellite simulation, Eastern United States window (48 hrs. animation)
Cloud Images for forecast hours 00h UTC+ ... (updated between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC)
Cloud Images for forecast hours 12h UTC+ ... (updated between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC)

NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) - Southern Region Headquarters:

NWS Southern Florida - 7-Day Point Forecasts:
4 mi. East of Ochopee (25.91° N, 81.24° W)
Key Biscayne (25.69° N, 80.17° W)
Cutler (25.63° N, 80.3° W)
5 Miles W of Florida City, Everglades National Park entrance (25.41° N, 80.56° W)
Key West (24.55° N, 81.77° W)

NWS Southern Florida - Hourly Graphical Weather Forecasts (3 days):
13 Miles WNW of Kendal Lakes West (25.78° N, 80.67° W)
Key Biscayne (25.69° N, 80.17° W)
Cutler (25.61° N, 80.33° W)
18 Miles W of Florida City, near Pa-hay-okee Overlook (25.47° N, 80.81° W)
20 Miles WSW of Florida City, near Mahogany Hammock (25.34° N, 80.72° W)
Key West (24.57° N, 81.80° W)

NOAA NWS Miami Base/Composite Reflectivity NWS Radar

NOAA NWS Interactive Graphical Sector Forecast for Miami, FL

NOAA NWS - Miami Weather Calculator

NOAA National Hurricane Center Latitude-Longitude Distance Calculator

Tides:

NOAA Water Level Station Monitoring: Virginia Key, FL

Miami Harbor Entrance Tidal Locations (Tidesonline.com)

Hurricanes:

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is between June and November. These strong cyclonic storms generally move Westward and Northward, starting from the Tropical zone North of the Equator in the Atlantic Ocean or the Caribbean Sea. They originate over warm waters in an area of low atmospheric pressure and light winds that start turning counterclockwise.

See Hurricane Basics (National Hurricane Center)
See Tropical Weather and Hurricanes. Fundamentals of Physical Geography - Dr. Michael Pidwirny, University of British Columbia Okanagan (PhysicalGeography.net)

The Tropical Meteorology Project: (Colorado State University)

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2009 (December 10 '08):

"We foresee a somewhat above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2009. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."

"Information obtained through November 2008 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be somewhat more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2008 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 14 named storms (average is 9.6), 70 named storm days (average is 49.1), 30 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 120 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2009 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average."

"This forecast is based on a new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We currently do not expect to see El Niño conditions during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season."

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2008 (April 9 '08):

"We foresee a well above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2008. We have increased our seasonal forecast from our initial early December prediction. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."

"Information obtained through March 2008 indicates that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2008 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 9 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2008 to be about 160 percent of the long-term average."

"This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We expect current La Niña conditions to continue to weaken by the start of the 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane season."

Also see Remote Sensing Systems - Tropical Cyclone Watch

Also see Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Hurricanes: (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration - NOAA)

Images from the GOES-12 Satellite (Hurricane Tracking):
NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) - Tropical Prediction Center - Satellite Imagery:
East Sector Images: Visible, Infrared, Water Vapor (10° a 40° N, 100° a 47° W - updated every 30 min.).
NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook: Atlantic, East Pacific.

Images from the GOES-12 Satellite (Atlantic Sector):
NOAA GOES Server - NOAA Tropical Sectors:
Atlantic Sector Images: Visible, Infrared, Water Vapor (0° to 45° N, 103° to 25° W - updated every 30 min.).

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is between June 1 and November 30.
Its maximum is between mid-August and end-October.
The middle of the season is near September 10.
Hurricanes and tropical storms per century in Hurricane Season:

See NOAA National Hurricane Center - Hurricane Climatology
(Monthly Probabilities for the trajectories of hurricanes)
and NOAA National Hurricane Center - Tropical Cyclone Climatology
(Trajectories and hurricane frequencies)

South Florida, Biscayne Bay in particular, has the highest hurricane landfall frequency in the U.S.A.; The lowest Hurricane Return Period. See NOAA National Hurricane Center - Hurricane Return Periods.

Since 1851 only 7 of 1,325 hurricanes or tropical storms have passed directly over Venezuelan territory: Paraguaná 1877, Margarita and Paraguaná 1892, Sucre and Paraguaná 1933, Sucre, Central Litoral and Falcón 1974, Paraguaná 1988, Sucre, Central Litoral, Falcón and Zulia 1993, Paraguaná 1996.
See UNISYS - Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year.

On average, in a season there are 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes, 2 of them very strong.

NOAA forecasted for 2009 a season with activity probably near or below the average: From 7 to 11 tropical storms (there were 9), with 3 to 6 turning into hurricanes (there were 3), of which 1 to 2 could be very strong (there were 2). The great majority of these storms and hurricanes was in August, September and October '09.

See Slow Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close (NOAA)

See 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update [Graphic] (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, August 6 '09)

See Hurricanes: Nature's Greatest Storms (NOAA)
See NOAA-AOML Hurricane FAQ (with Spanish version)

The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially came to a close on Sunday, November 30, marking the end of a season that produced a record number of consecutive storms to strike the United States and ranks as one of the more active seasons in the 64 years since comprehensive records began.

See Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records (NOAA News, November 26 '08)

NOAA forecasted for 2008 another season with activity probably over the average: From 12 to 16 tropical storms (there were 16), with 6 to 9 turning into hurricanes (there were 8), of which 2 to 5 could be very strong (there were 5). The great majority of these storms and hurricanes would be in August, September and October '08.

See 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Aug 7 '08)

NOAA forecasted for 2007 another season with activity probably over the average: From 13 to 17 tropical storms (there were 9), with 7 to 10 turning into hurricanes (there were 6), of which 3 to 5 could be very strong (there were 2). The great majority of these storms and hurricanes would be in August, September and October '07 (there were from May to December).

See NOAA: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, May 22 '07. Updated in August 9 '07)
See NCDC: Atlantic Ocean 2007 Tropical Cyclones (National Climatic Data Center)
See The 2007 North Atlantic Hurricane Season - A Climate Perspective (Adobe .pdf, NOAA Climate Prediction Center)

NOAA forecasted for 2006 another season with activity probably over the average: From 12 to 15 tropical storms (there were 9), with 7 to 9 turning into hurricanes (there were 5), of which 3 to 4 could be very strong (there were 2). The great majority of these storms and hurricanes would be in August, September and October '06 (they were in August and September).

See NOAA: 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, May 22 '06. Updated in August 8 '06)
See NCDC: Atlantic Ocean 2006 Tropical Cyclones (National Climatic Data Center)
See The 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season - A Climate Perspective (Adobe .pdf, NOAA Climate Prediction Center)

NOAA forecasted for 2005 another season with activity probably over the average: From 18 to 21 tropical storms (there were 28), with 9 to 11 converting into hurricanes (there were 15), of which 5 to 7 could be very strong (there were 5).

The 2005 season is the most active in the records and continued the cycle initiated in 1995 that will probably extend into coming years.

See NOAA Raises the 2005 Atlantic Season Outlook (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, August 2 '05)
See NOAA Reviews Record-Setting 2005 Hurricane Season (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, April 13 '06)
See NCDC: Atlantic Ocean 2005 Tropical Cyclones (National Climatic Data Center)
See The 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season - A Climate Perspective (Adobe .pdf, NOAA Climate Prediction Center)

The Saffir-Simpson Scale for Tropical Cyclones:

Ryan N. Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
PhD Candidate, Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee

North Atlantic Hurricane Season ends

November 30, 2009:
In terms of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index [ACE], 2009 tallied ~52 ACE points which is less than half of normal. 2009 was the quietest year since 1997 (ACE= 41) and the 16th slowest since 1940.
Interestingly, 2009 saw 1/5th of the activity of 2005, the most active ACE season on record: 3 storms out of the total of 9 accounted for 85% of the total ACE (Bill, Fred, and Ida). These 3 storms were the only hurricanes out of the total 9 tropical storms.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) metric combines frequency, duration, and the intensity of tropical cyclones into one value that can be calculated from historical storm records as well as current operational center (i.e. NHC) advisories.

Global tropical cyclone activity remains near 30-year+ lows.

For a listing of the past 70-years of ACE values for the North Atlantic Listing, see Ryan N. Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update.

Other Local Meteorological Forecasts:

AccuWeather.com: Hurricane Center, Southern US Weather, Key Biscayne.

cbs4.com - Weather (Miami and other Florida cities)

NBC6 Miami - Weather (Miami Weather Reports, Forecasts, Maps & Radar)

7 WSVN-TV - Weather (Miami and South Florida)

Weather.com (The Weather Channel): Miami, Florida - Weather Forecast and Conditions,
Hurricane Central, Hurricane Trackers and Hurricane Information,
weather.com/espanol, Tiempo Local - Miami, Florida, Estados Unidos (en Español)

Forecast for Key Biscayne, Florida (HAMweather)

Local Meteorological Conditions:

NOAA - NWS Internet Weather Source: Florida Weather Conditions, Miami, Miami International Airport

Global Warming? (now called "Climate Change")

"In 1988 the scientist James Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) announced to Congress (USA) and the world, "Global warming has begun". He went on to report that, at least to his satisfaction, he had seen the "signal" in the climate noise and that the earth was destined for global warming, perhaps in the form of a runaway greenhouse effect. Hansen later revised his remarks, but his statement remained the starting point of widespread concerns over global warming. That same year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed as a joint program of the United Nations Environmental Program, the World Meteorological Organization, and the International Congress of Scientific Unions. It has a mandate to prepare regular assessments of what is known and what should be done about anthropogenic climate change."

See Updating the Climate Science (Makiko Sato & James Hansen, Columbia University)
See Climate Definition, Synonyms (Answers.com)

Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen "embarrassed NASA". He violated NASA's official agency position on climate forecasting ("we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind's effect on it"). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress. [January 15, 2009]

Theon declared: "Climate models are useless".

See Watts Up With That? (January 27, 2009)

James Hansen is the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) (Study of global climate change).

El Niño and La Niña are natural oscillations of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific that have important consequences for weather around the globe. Current science can detect them, but not predict them in the long term.
They are part of a phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a continual but irregular cycle (of about 3 to 7 years) of shifts in ocean and atmospheric conditions that affect the global climate.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to La Niña, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
Among these consequences is increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a natural long-term fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean. The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years.
Even more irregular is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) a large-scale mode of natural climate variability having large impacts on weather and climate in the North Atlantic region and surrounding continents.
Then there are the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), all contributing to natural global climate variability.

Negative values of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) represent the cold ENSO phase (La Niña), while positive values of the MEI represent the warm phase (El Niño). See ESRL-PSD: Multivariate ENSO Index (NOAA).

El Niño strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

"El Niño events release heat from the tropical Pacific, and through ocean currents and changes in atmospheric circulation, they raise surface temperatures outside of the tropical Pacific."

"During La Niña events, the tropical Pacific releases less heat than normal, and global temperatures decline."

"La Niña events are a vital portion of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) coupled ocean-atmosphere process. La Niña events recharge the heat released from the tropical Pacific during the El Niño."

"Note that most La Niña events do not fully recharge the heat released by the El Niño events."

"During a La Niña event, tropical Pacific trade winds rise above normal levels. The increase in trade winds reduces cloud cover. Reduced cloud cover allows more Downward Shortwave Radiation (visible light) to warm the tropical Pacific."

"Contrary to the beliefs of anthropogenic warming proponents the 1997/98 El Niño was NOT fueled by a long-term accumulation of heat from manmade greenhouse gases.
The 1997/98 El Niño was strong enough to temporarily raise Global Lower Troposphere Temperature anomalies ~0.7° C."

"The La Niña event of 1973/74/75/76 provided the tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content necessary for the increase in strength and frequency of El Niño events from 1976 to 1995. The 1995/96 La Niña furnished the Ocean Heat Content that served as fuel for the 1997/98 El Niño. And the 1998/99/00/01 La Niña recharged the tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content after the 1997/98 El Niño, returning it to the new higher level established by the La Niña of 1995/96."

Ver Tisdale on the importance of El Nino's little sister - recharging ocean heat content (Bob Tisdale, Feb. 13 '10, Watts Up With That).

Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, a former contract researcher for NASA's Langley Research Center, discovered a self-regulating mechanism, or "constant", that keeps Earth's greenhouse gases in equilibrium. According to his equilibrium theory, this constant cannot be altered by increases in emissions of CO2 or other atmospheric gases such as methane.

"The only thing my theory is telling us is that the nature of the greenhouse effect is such, that under the conditions we have here on Earth, the atmosphere will maximize its cooling by keeping its infrared optical depth - or infrared absorption - at a preferred critical value".

"With relatively simple computations using NOAA's annual mean temperature, H20 and CO2 time series, I have shown that in the last 61 years, despite a 30 percent increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the cumulative atmospheric absorption of all greenhouse gases has not been changed and has remained constant. There is no runaway greenhouse effect."

Ver New research into greenhouse effect challenges theory of man-made global warming (Dr. F. Miskolczi, Feb. 9 '10),
Former NASA scientist defends theory refuting global warming doctrine (Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, February 12 '10)
(Kirk Myers, Seminole County Environmental News Examiner)

Man-made 'global warming' has not been scientifically proven correct, while significant reasons for considering this hypothesis as incorrect have been presented:

"The Earth’s climate has predominantly been warmer than at present. However, there has been some significant cooling that resulted in the development of extensive glaciations, in some of which ice sheets even reached the tropics. Therefore, any reliable forecasts of climate change, before discussion of prevention or neutralization, should take into account evidence from the geological past when, obviously, neither humans nor industry affected the Earth."

"During the last 400 thousand years – still without anthropogenic greenhouse influence – the content of carbon dioxide in the air, as indicated by ice cores from Antarctica, was repeatedly 4 times at similar or even slightly higher level than at present."

"In the past millennium, after warm medieval ages, by the end of the 13th century a cold period started and lasted up to the middle of the 19th century, then gave pace to another warm period in which we are living now. The phenomena observed today, specifically a temporary rise of global temperature, just reflect a natural rhythm of climate change."

"Instrumental monitoring of climate parameters has been carried out for only slightly more than 200 years and exclusively on some parts of the continents that constitute a small part of the Earth. Several older measurement stations once set up in suburbs now appear, due to progressive urbanization, in the town centers which results among other effects in increased values of the measured temperatures. Profound examination of the oceans was initiated 40 years ago. Reliable climatic models must not be based on such a short measurement data base. Therefore, considerable restraint is desirable if ascribing exclusive or predominant responsibility to man for increased emission of greenhouse gases. The reality of such arbitrary statement on human influence has not been demonstrated."

"It is certain that increased content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is connected partly with human activity. Therefore, all steps that restrain this emission and agree with principles of sustainable development should be taken, starting from a cease of extensive deforestation, especially in tropical areas."

See Attitude of the Committee of Geological Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences to the question of impending of global warming (February 12 '09, .pdf)

"IPCC predicts rapid, exponential CO2 growth that is not occurring".
"The 29-year global warming trend is just 2.5 °F (1.5 °C) per century".

"The IPCC assume CO2 concentration will rise exponentially from today's 385 parts per million to reach 730 to 1,020 ppm, central estimate 836 ppm, by 2100". "However, for seven years, CO2 concentration has been rising in a straight line towards just 575 ppm by 2100".

See Trends in Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory)
See SPPI Monthly CO2 Report: March 2009 (Science and Public Policy Institute)

"The observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)".

See Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected? (Stephen E. Schwartz et al. - AMS Online Journals)

"Over the 1993-2000 period, the mean sea level trend of the Southern Ocean is estimated at 2.34 ± 0.34 mm/yr, compared to 1.21 ± 0.15 mm/yr for the global ocean".
"Globally, no dramatic sea level rising trend resembling the exponential concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is observed during the past century".

See "Sea level trends: southern ocean versus global ocean", in Interannual sea level variability in the Southern Ocean within the context of global climate change (NASA-JPL, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason)

E-mails leaked out of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia appear to show scientists colluding to distort data to favor the man-made global warming hypothesis and suppress opinion and scientific works opposing it.
Scientists from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia are leading authors and contributors of the IPCC Assessment Reports on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UNEP).

See Climate Emails Stoke Debate (Keith Johnson, The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 23 '09)
See What the Global Warming Emails Reveal (Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 24 '09)
See The Climate Science Isn't Settled (Richard S. Lindzen, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1 '09)
See Climategate: Follow the Money (Bret Stephens, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1 '09)
See How to Manufacture a Climate Consensus (Patrick J. Michaels, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 17 '09)
Ver The Continuing Climate Meltdown (Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 16 '10)

See East Anglia Confirmed Emails from the Climate Research Unit (Searchable)

Science is not based on models but on autentic measurements. Models must be based on science, not the other way around.

The climate in Venus is controlled by an atmospheric 'greenhouse effect' because CO₂ is near 97% in its atmosphere, on Earth, CO₂ is some 0.06%; probably not enough to cause a 'greenhouse effect'.
According to many climatologists and the IPCC climate models, there is a positive feedback action amplifying the CO₂ effect to be much more potent, but this theoretical effect has not been actually measured in practice.

Understanding that a trace amount of CO₂ can not be a main cause of an atmospheric 'greenhouse effect' means we are more in control of the quality of the air. We are more responsible for our planet regarding the atmospheric pollution we cause, and pollution must be minimized for the water and the ground too. Extensive deforestation must cease too.

Links:

AccuWeather.com: Global Warming News, Science, Myths, Articles
Anthropogenic Global Warming - Fact or Hoax? (A Middlebury Community Network editorial by James A. Peden)
C3 Headlines (Climate Cycle Changes)
Calamitology.com (Steve Schulin, Discussion of exaggerated claims about climate science)
Carlin Economics and Science (Dr. Alan Carlin, Ph.D. in Economics, B.S. in Physics)
Christopher Booker's comment, columns and opinion (Telegraph.co.uk)
Climate Audit (Steve McIntyre)
Climate Change Fraud (Because the debate is not over)
Climate Change Reconsidered (2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change [NIPCC])
Climategate (Anthropogenic Global Warming, history's biggest scam)
Climate Realists (Real explanations as to what has made our climate change)
Climate Research News (Bridging the gap between reality and official science)
Climate Review (Home of the movie "Church of Global Warming", James Follett, 1hr. - Free)
Climate Scam (Review of the Climate Change News)
CO2 Science (Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change)
Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker)
Global Warming (Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)
Global Warming at a glance (JunkScience.com)
Global Warming Facts (The Heartland Institute)
Global Warming - Introduction (West Virginia Plant Fossils)
 - Global Warming: A closer look at the numbers
Global Warming Science (Applied Information Systems - AppInSys, Alan Cheetham)
 - AIS Climate Data Visualizer (Global Historical Climate Network temperature data graphing - from NOAA, HadCRU)
Global Warming: The Other Side (Part 1) (Joseph D'Aleo, E. Michael Smith, Video, John Coleman, KUSI - News, Weather and Sports - San Diego, CA)
 - Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, The Amazing Story Behind the Global Warming Scam, Joseph D'Aleo (full interview)
 - Continued in Global Warming: Meltdown - Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.
International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP)
Minnesotans for Global Warming (M4GW)
 - Hide the Decline - Climategate (Musical Video)
NOconsensus.org (No Scientific Consensus on Global Warming. Donna Laframboise, Toronto, Canada)
San Francisco Environmental Policy Examiner (Thomas Fuller)
Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI)
 - 35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore's movie (Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Oct. 19 '07)
Seminole County Environmental News Examiner (Kirk Myers)
 - New research into greenhouse effect challenges theory of man-made global warming (Dr. F. Miskolczi, Feb. 9 '10)
 - Former NASA scientist defends theory refuting global warming doctrine (Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, February 12 '10)
surfacestations.org (Climate stations physical site survey data)
The Air Vent (by Jeff Id)
The Case for Skepticism on Global Warming (Michael Crichton, January 25, 2005)
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Martin Durkin, 10 min. video in YouTube, Produced by WAGTV)
The Real Inconvenient Truth: Greenhouse, global warming and some facts (JunkScience.com)
The Resilient Earth (Science, Global Warming and the Fate of Humanity)
 - The Resilient Earth (Downloadable Book. Doug L. Hoffman, Allen Simmons)
Watts Up With That? (by Anthony Watts)
World Climate Report (Chief Editor: Patrick J. Michaels)

Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse
(By Professor R. W. Wood, Philosophical Magazine, 1909. Vol. 17, pp. 319-320) [in tech-archive.net]
Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO₂ Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics
(.pdf, 1.5 MB, Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner, Version 4.0, January 6, 2009)
The Thermostat Hypothesis (Willis Eschenbach, Watts Up With That?, June 14 '09)
Global warming: Our best guess is likely wrong (Jade Boyd, Rice University News, July 14 '09)
What happened to global warming? (BBC NEWS | Science & Environment, Oct. 9 '09)
Not Evil Just Wrong (Documentary film, Phelim McAleer and Ann McElhinney, Oct. 18 '09)
The real climate change catastrophe (Christopher Booker, Telegraph.co.uk, Oct. 25 '09)
Climategate: CRU Was But the Tip of the Iceberg (Marc Sheppard, American Thinker, Jan. 22 '10)

Arctic Climate Change (University of Illinois)
 - Polar Sea Ice Cap and Snow - Cryosphere Today
Centre for Ocean and Ice (COI) (Danish Meteorological Institute)
Climate Change (NASA)
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (NOAA)
Climatic Research Unit (CRU) (University of East Anglia)
Data of Sea Ice Extent (IARC-JAXA)
Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (NOAA)
 - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño: online meteorology guide (WW2010, University of Illinois)
El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere (The National Academies)
Global Warming (NASA Worldbook)
Global Warming Facts, Causes, Effects, Solutions (National Geographic)
IPCC Reports - Climate Change (UNEP)
 - Vital Climate Graphics - Update 2005 (UNEP/GRID-Arendal)
National Snow Analyses NOAA-NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
National Weather Service (NWS) Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Ian Bell, Martin Visbeck, Columbia University)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (David B. Stephenson, Exeter University)
Observing the Earth - Understanding Our Planet (European Space Agency - ESA)
Ocean Surface Topography from Space (NASA-JPL, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason)
PALEOMAP Project (Earth & Climate History, Christopher R. Scotese)
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
Securing Our Environment (European Space Agency - ESA)
Solar Physics (Marshall Space Flight Center)
State of the Climate (NOAA National Climatic Data Center - NCDC)
Taking Earth's temperature (University of Alabama in Hunstville - UAH)
 - Daily Earth Temperatures from Satellites (AMSU-A Temperatures)
The Second Law of Thermodynamics (Frank L. Lambert, Professor Emeritus, Occidental College, Los Angeles)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Project (Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array, NOAA)
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (NASA - JAXA)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (United Nations)

For more information, see Observatorio ARVAL - Climate Change (Global Warming)? (Conference)

This page was updated in: March 16 '10

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