Observatorio ARVAL

Miami, Florida. Latitude 25° 36.5' N, Longitude 80° 19.2' W  (UT-5 EST / UT-4 EDT)

See this page in Black and White: Meteorology for South Florida and the Caribbean


Meteorology for South Florida and the Caribbean

The cyclic nature of Earth's weather
The Moist Tropical Climate of the Caribbean
The Moist Tropical Climate of South Florida
Atmospheric Circulation   - NOAA-NWS: Tropical Unified Surface Analysis
Oceanic Weather Influences   - Klaus Wolter: Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)
Images from the GOES East Meteorological Satellite
Interpreting Weather-Satellite Images
Graphic Weather Forecasts
Tides
Other Local Meteorological Forecasts
Hurricanes   - Ryan Maue: Global Tropical Cyclone Activity
Tornadoes
The Sun-Earth Connection
Global Warming?   - UAH: Satellite-Based Global Temperature Record
The "Greenhouse Effect"
References




The cyclic nature of Earth's weather:

Cyclic but chaotic, not regular.


"Weather is climate. More specifically, aggregations of weather are climate. Means, averages, and distributions of daily weather comprise climate."
See Actually, Weather Is Climate (William M. Briggs, Statistician & Consultant. Jan. 22, '10)




Climate is long-range weather, it is a description of the average or prevailing weather in each season along the years. The weather varies widely among different regions on Earth. Also, in some regions it varies more or less widely with the seasons.

Predicting the weather for a particular region, even for a few days in advance, is one of the most complex problems in science. One basis for these predictions is that weather changes slowly, so tomorrow's weather will be similar to today's weather and so on (but with less certainty the further we go on, because the weather is mathematically chaotic). Also, that weather tends to repeat seasonally, for each region, changing slowly with the years.

The most obvious local cycle in the weather pattern is diurnal, basically controlled by the Sun. The warmest time of the day is usually after noon, after receiving the highest energy influx. The coldest is usually before dawn, after cooling all night.

The second cycle in importance is yearly, also controlled by the amount of energy received from the Sun. The warmest days occur in the summer and the coldest in the winter, when one hemisphere is tilted towards the Sun while the other is tilted away. The axis of the Earth is currently tilted 23.5° in respect to its orbital plane. The northern hemisphere contains most of the land, the southern hemisphere contains most of the ocean.




The Moist Tropical Climate of the Caribbean:

The Trade Winds from the Northeast are dominant in the climate of the Caribbean, they are weaker and variable during the Northern Hemisphere Summer, in July, August and September.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is an area of low atmospheric pressure that forms where the Northeastern Trade Winds meet with those from the Southeast, near the Equator. When these winds converge, the warm and moist air is forced to rise. This causes the water vapor it contains to condense as the air rises and cools, resulting in a band of strong precipitation around the globe.
Precipitations in the ITCZ show a dairy cycle: The clouds form late in the morning and early in the afternoon, and between 3 and 4 PM, the warmest hours of the day, the storms form and the precipitations start.
This band moves with the seasons of the year, always attracted to the areas of higher intensity of Solar heating, with grater surface temperatures. It moves towards the Southern Hemisphere from September to February and changes direction in April, May and June, before the Northern Hemisphere Summer.
The ITCZ is always to the Southeast of Venezuelan territory, but is nearer and affects it during the Northern Hemisphere Summer. The ITCZ is less mobile over the oceanic longitudes.
The variation in the location of the ITCZ dramatically affects the precipitations in the equatorial regions, resulting in a humid season (from May to November) and a dry one (from December to April) between the Tropics of Cancer (23.5° N) and Capricorn (23.5° S), instead of the cold and warm of higher latitudes (Temperate Climates).

Tropical moist climates extend northward and southward from the equator to about 15° to 25° of latitude. In these climates all months have average temperatures greater than 18° Celsius (64°F). Annual precipitation is greater than 1,500 mm.


See Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (NASA - JAXA)




The Moist Tropical Climate of South Florida:

South Florida is the only region in the continental U.S. that has a Moist Tropical Climate.
The Moist Tropical Climate of southern Florida borders the Moist Subtropical Mid-Latitude Climate of central and northern Florida. This Subtropical climate generally has hot muggy summers and frequent thunderstorms, with mild winters. Its extent is from 30° to 50° of latitude, mainly on the eastern and western borders of most continents.

The border between the Florida Tropical and Subtropical climates, according to Wladimir Köppen (1918) is a line from Vero Beach to the South of Lake Okeechobee, to Fort Myers, to Punta Gorda, to Tarpon Springs.

Southern Florida is a Tropical Savannah, dominated by the Everglades. It shows pronounced, alternaing, wet and dry seasons. During the rainy season, from May to October, southern Florida shows frequently cloudy skies, high humidity and warmer temperatures. During the dry season, from November to April, southern Florida shows frequently clear skies, low humidity and colder temperatures.
There is a narrow coastal transitional strip from near Fort Pierce to Miami with a shorter dry season.

In Southern Florida the winds normally come from the East all year long. These winds tend to block cold air intrusions from the north. All months have average temperatures greater than 18° Celsius (64°F). Annual precipitation is greater than 1,500 mm. The temperature variations are kept very small by the waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.


See "The Climate and Weather of Florida", James A. Henry, Kenneth M. Portier and Jan Coyne, 1994. Pineapple Press, Sarasota, Florida.

See The Rains & Temperatures in South Florida (monthly averages) [in ARVAL]




Atmospheric Circulation:


ITCZ, Pressure and Wind at Sea Level:

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is identified on the figures by a red line. The formation of this band of low pressure is the result of solar heating and the convergence of the trade winds. In January, the intertropical convergence zone is found south of the equator. During this time period, the Southern Hemisphere is tilted towards the Sun and receives higher inputs of shortwave radiation. Note that the line representing the intertropical convergence zone is not straight and parallel to the lines of latitude. Bends in the line occur because of the different heating characteristics of land and water. Over the continents of Africa, South America, and Australia, these bends are toward the South Pole. This phenomenon occurs because land heats up faster than ocean.

ITCZ, Pressure and Wind at Sea Level in January

ITCZ, Pressure and Wind at Sea Level in July

The graphics show the center of the ITCZ (red line) and the atmospheric pressure (colors), velocity and direction at sea level (black arrows), in January and July (1959-1997 average).

During July, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is generally found north of the equator. This shift in position occurs because the altitude of the Sun is now higher in the Northern Hemisphere. The greatest spatial shift in the ITCZ, from January to July, occurs in the eastern half of the image. This shift is about 40° of latitude in some places. The more intense July Sun causes land areas of Northern Africa and Asia rapidly warm creating the Asiatic Low which becomes part of the ITCZ. In the winter months, the intertropical convergence zone is pushed south by the development of an intense high pressure system over central Asia. The extreme movement of the ITCZ in this part of the world also helps to intensify the development of a regional winds system called the Asian Monsoon.

See Global Scale Circulation of the Atmosphere, Tropical Weather and Hurricanes, Chapter 7: Introduction to the Atmosphere. Fundamentals of Physical Geography - Dr. Michael Pidwirny, University of British Columbia Okanagan (PhysicalGeography.net).
See Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (NWS JetStream)




Tropical Unified Surface Analysis:


NOAA-NWS OPC - Simplified Unified Surface Analysis
NOAA-NWS - Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), Simplified Unified Surface Analysis

From NOAA-NWS OPC - Unified Surface Analysis. Updated every 6 hours.
[Ctrl + to zoom in, Ctrl - to zoom out, Ctrl 0 to reset]

See Tropical Atlantic Unified Surface Analysis. Meteorological chart with the current position of the ITCZ (hatched double red curves) and the Monsoon Trough (double red curves). Blue high (H) and red low (L) pressure centers and yellow isobars. Warm fronts (red), cold fronts (blue), stationary fronts (red/blue), and occluded fronts (purple). Tropical waves (red curves). Storm and cyclone symbols (magenta). A trough is an elongated area of low pressure with no distinct low level center. It is drawn as an orange wide dashed line.

See Unified Surface Analysis Manual (.pdf)

See Introduction to synoptic meteorology (NWS JetStream)


Changes to the TAFB portion of the Unified Surface Analysis:

Beginning June 1, 2011, the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) will officially include, as part of its portion of the unified surface analyses (USA), a distinction between the trade wind Intertropical Convergence Zone (hereafter ITCZ) and the monsoon trough ITCZ (hereafter monsoon trough). A second addition to the TAFB portion of the USA will be the depiction of shear lines.

Depiction of the Monsoon Trough on the Tropical Analysis & Forecast Branch (TAFB) portion of the Unified Surface Analysis

The decision to differentiate between the ITCZ and monsoon trough arises from the differences in wind direction and its implication for the tropical cyclogenesis for each feature. TAFB's definition of each feature follows:

ITCZ - a zonally elongated axis of surface wind confluence of northeasterly (NE) and southeasterly (SE) trade winds in the tropics.

Monsoon Trough - the portion of the ITCZ which extends into or through a monsoon circulation, as depicted by a line on a weather map showing the location of minimum sea level pressure. This line coincides with the maximum cyclonic curvature vorticity, with southwesterly (SW) monsoonal flow prevailing south of the trough axis.

Implication for users of the TAFB surface analysis: users may anticipate SW winds to the south of the monsoon trough, and SE winds to the south of the ITCZ.

Implication for tropical cyclogenesis: the convergence of SW winds south of the monsoon trough and NE winds north of the monsoon trough creates a background flow that produces cyclonic vorticity, which is important for tropical cyclogenesis. The ITCZ creates a confluence zone of NE trade wind flow and SE trade wind flow, which does not readily create cyclonic vorticity. Thus, tropical cyclogenesis is more likely in a background flow associated with a monsoon trough than the ITCZ.

From Changes to the TAFB portion of the Unified Surface Analysis (May 19, 2011. NOAA-NWS. With graphics .pdf)




Also see earth wind map (Cameron Beccario); An animated Adobe Flash visualization of global winds conditions, forecasted by supercomputers, updated every three hours (Weather Data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction - NCEP / US National Weather Service / NOAA).
Standard Pressure/Altitude: 1000 hPa ≈ 100 m, 850 hPa ≈ 1,500 m, 700 hPa ≈ 3,500 m, 500 hPa ≈ 5,000 m, 250 hPa ≈ 10,500 m, 70 hPa ≈ 17,500 m, 10 hPa ≈ 26,500 m.   1 hectopascal (hPa) = 100 Pa = 1 mbar.
The "Surface" layer represents conditions at ground or water level, this layer follows the contours of mountains, valleys, etc.
Overlays for wind, temperature, total precipitable water, total amount of water in clouds, and air pressure reduced to sea level. See About earth wind map.
For example: earth wind map centered on Miami, FL (1000 hPa, Lat. 26° N, Long. 80° W), North Pole (10 hPa, Lat. 90° N, Long. 80° W).
[Click on map for local conditions for wind direction and speed, drag to rotate the globe, mouse wheel to zoom]




The troposphere is the lowest layer of the atmosphere, from the ground to the tropopause. It goes from some 20 Km in the equatorial regions to near 7 Km at the poles when in winter. In the temperate zones of the Earth it averages some 17 Km. In the troposphere are 80% of the mass and 99% of the water vapor and particles of the atmosphere.
Tropos means change in Greek; in the troposphere is where most of the weather occurs.
The composition of the atmosphere is very uniform but for the water, vapor and ice distribution. All this water is evaporated at the surface of continents and oceans.
The tropopause is the boundary region between the troposphere and the stratosphere. There is little mixing between these two layers.
In the troposphere layer temperature decreases with altitude (positive lapse rate, usually 6°C/Km), from an average of 15°C at sea level to about -55°C at the top of the tropopause.
In the stratosphere layer the temperature at first remains near constant, then increases with altitude (negative lapse rate), this defines the height of the tropopause.

The standard ground atmospheric pressure at the equator (1,013.25 hPa = 760 mmHg) results from the weight of the air above.
Local pressure decreases with temperature, elevation and latitude. Local pressure increases with humidity in the air above.
Low local pressures are normally associated with faster winds, clouds, precipitation and storms. High local pressures are normally associated with dry weather and mostly clear skies, with larger diurnal temperature changes and light winds.




Oceanic Weather Influences:


The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO):

The tropical atmosphere-ocean system varies on many time scales, including:

Accurate forecasting of this variability will benefit people living in the tropical regions, and also over the rest of the Earth due to remote 'teleconnections' between the weather in the tropics and the weather elsewhere around the globe. Here, we focus on variability on the intraseasonal time scale, which is dominated by the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). This was discovered by Madden and Julian (1971, 1972) who called it the '40-50-day oscillation' because of its preferred time scale. Since then it has been called the '30-60-day oscillation' and the 'intraseasonal oscillation', but the term 'MJO' has now emerged as a favorite.

The MJO is characterized by an eastward propagation of rainfall over the 'warm pool' region from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific.

In addition to strongly modulating the rainfall in the tropics, the MJO has a signal in other meteorological variables. For example, a clear MJO cycle in sea level pressure can also be seen.

The negative pressure anomalies appear to emanate out of the region of enhanced rainfall. One signal propagates eastward along the equator. This is an equatorial Kelvin wave. When it reaches the Andes mountain range along the eastern coast of the Pacific it is momentarily blocked, before continuing on eastward across the Atlantic, completing a circuit of the equator in one MJO cycle, about 48 days.

An equatorial Rossby wave signal is also forced by the MJO rainfall anomalies. This can be seen as a pair of negative sea level pressure anomalies, one either side of the equator, that lie slightly to the west of the enhanced rainfall.

In the 'other half' of the MJO cycle, the reduced rainfall triggers equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves of the opposite sign (positive sea level pressure anomalies).

The MJO also affects other meteorological systems in the tropics:


From Introduction to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) (Dr. Adrian Matthews. University of East Anglia, UK)


The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system that lasts about 1 to 2 months. It is one of the few aspects of the weather that can be skilfully predicted beyond about 2 weeks into the future.

From Current MJO forecast (Dr. Adrian Matthews. University of East Anglia, UK)




The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO):

The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is a mode of natural variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its principle expression in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The AMO is identified as a coherent pattern of variability in basin-wide North Atlantic SSTs with a period of 60-80 years.

From Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate Indices)

For an updated plot of the AMO index, see AMO from NOAA/ESRL PSD (Since 1850, averaged Jan. to Dec.)
From Analyze & Plot Long Range Climate Timeseries (NOAA/ESRL PSD GCOS WGSP)


Is the AMO a natural phenomenon, or is it related to global warming?
Instruments have observed AMO cycles only for the last 150 years, not long enough to conclusively answer this question. However, studies of paleoclimate proxies, such as tree rings and ice cores, have shown that oscillations similar to those observed instrumentally have been occurring for at least the last millennium. This is clearly longer than modern man has been affecting climate, so the AMO is probably a natural climate oscillation. In the 20th century, the climate swings of the AMO have alternately camouflaged and exaggerated the effects of global warming, and made attribution of global warming more difficult to ascertain.

From Physical Oceanography Division - Frequently Asked Questions - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory of NOAA)




The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is a recently discovered mode of Sea Surface Temperature variability for a significant portion of the global oceans. Climate studies provide different causes for the additional strength of the changes in North Atlantic SST anomalies: some blame the Atlantic branch of Thermohaline Circulation, while another discusses the multiple interactions between Saharan dust, Sahel precipitation, solar radiation, and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature.
While cause may be debatable, its impact on Northern Hemisphere sea surface and land surface temperature is clear.

Foltz and McPhaden (2008) write in their Abstract, "Trends in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), Sahel rainfall, and Saharan dust are investigated during 1980-2006. This period is characterized by a significant increase in tropical North Atlantic SST and the transition from a negative to a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). It is found that dust concentrations over western Africa and the tropical North Atlantic Ocean decreased significantly between 1980 and 2006 in association with an increase in Sahel rainfall. The decrease in dust in the tropical North Atlantic tended to increase the surface radiative heat flux by 0.7 W/m^2 which, if unbalanced, would lead to an increase in SST of 3 deg C. Coupled models significantly underestimate the amplitude of the AMO in the tropical North Atlantic possibly because they do not account for changes in Saharan dust concentration."

From An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO - Part 2 (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. August 16, 2010)




El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO):


El Niño and La Niña are natural oscillations of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific that have important consequences for weather around the globe. Current science can detect them, but not predict them in the long term.
They are part of a phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a continual but irregular cycle (of about 3 to 7 years) of shifts in ocean and atmospheric conditions that affect the global climate.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to La Niña, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
Among these consequences are increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia.
El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña events tend to enhance it.


In July 2009 the Journal of Geophysical Research published our paper titled "The Influence of the Southern Oscillation on Tropospheric Temperature". We showed that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, calculated according to the Troup method, was a good indicator of global average lower tropospheric temperature 7 months later except when volcanic eruptions around the Pacific Ocean caused cooling.

See Our ENSO - temperature paper of 2009 and the aftermath (Dr. John McLean, 2 Feb. 2011)

See also Tracking El Niño (PBS - NOVA Online)


The recent change from stronger El Nino to stronger La Nina conditions is revealed in monthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) data since 1950 ... which is also related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), some researchers consider the PDO to be a low-frequency modulation of El Nino and La Nina activity.

Of significance to the current 'global warming hiatus' issue is the observation that we might have now entered into a new La Niña-dominant phase. ... such a scenario could well lead to a 25- or 30-year period of no warming - or even cooling - just as was experienced up until the 1970s.

From On Changing ENSO Conditions: The View from SSM/I (September 24th, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.)




Who Turned on the Heat? - "The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation"
Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. August 2012

"The Southern Oscillation was discovered decades before it was found to be related to El Niño and La Niña events, which are not repetitive in time, so they are not parts of a true oscillation. While there are portions of El Niño and La Niña processes that behave as cycles, those cycles break down, and an El Niño or a La Niña can evolve as an independent event. Further, El Niño and La Niña are not opposites. That's also very obvious in the sea surface temperature records. La Niña is an exaggeration of the normal state of the tropical Pacific, while an El Niño is the anomalous phase. That's why many researchers believe there are only two states of the tropical Pacific: El Niño and 'other'. Also, over the last 30 years it's rare when a La Niña has been as strong as the El Niño that preceded it. How then could a La Niña counteract an El Niño? Of course, the temperature records also show a multidecadal period when La Niña were as strong as El Niño, and it's no coincidence that global surface temperature did not warm during it."

"A very strong El Niño like the one in 1997/98 is capable of temporarily raising global surface temperatures more than 0.4 deg C (about 0.7 deg F) over a 12-month period, and for some reason, many climate scientists claim such an event has no long-term aftereffects. This means those scientists have failed to account for the warm water that is redistributed after a strong El Niño and for the effects those leftover warm waters have on global climate."

"An El Niño and his sibling La Niña can cause flooding in some parts of the world, droughts in others - blizzards in some areas, record low snowfalls elsewhere. The strong storms they produce erode coastlines. They can suppress the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) in some parts of the globe and enhance the conditions for their development in others. It should go without saying that they cause heat waves and cold spells depending on the season and location. These causes and effects have been known for decades. Recently, however, a few headline-seizing climate scientists, with the help of mainstream media and blogs, have now redirected the blame for those weather events to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases."

"The IPCC uses climate model simulations of global surface temperatures with and without radiative forcings from manmade greenhouse gases to show that the warming of global surface temperatures for the past three decades could only be simulated by the models that included anthropogenic greenhouse gases. For the IPCC, this provided irrefutable proof that greenhouse gases were responsible for the warming. To the general public, however, it suggested another possibility. If climate models without radiative forcings from greenhouse gas couldn't simulate the warming, then those assumption-based climate models might be seriously flawed. This book, using the outputs of the climate models used by the IPCC, confirms that they are in fact flawed. Climate models show no skill whatsoever at being able to simulate the ocean processes that produced the warming of global sea surface temperatures for the past 3 decades."

"Maybe the IPCC should examine the sea surface temperature records for the past 30 years. Why? They do not agree with the IPCC's conclusions. Satellite-based sea surface temperature records show El Niño and La Niña are responsible for most of the warming of global sea surface temperatures over the past 3 decades. That fact shows up plain as day in sea surface temperature records. It's tough to miss. It really is. Maybe the IPCC has overlooked it intentionally."

"Who Turned on the Heat? uses observations-based data, not climate models, to illustrate where and how ENSO is capable of raising global sea surface temperatures over periods of 10, 20, 30 years and more. Because land surface air temperatures are basically along for the ride, mimicking the variations in sea surface temperatures, ENSO can be said to be responsible for most of the warming of global land plus sea surface temperatures for the past three decades as well."

"El Niño and La Niña events are often described as the 'unusual' warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) of the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. They happen every couple of years, so there's really nothing unusual about them. In fact, based on the NOAA's Oceanic NINO Index (ONI), official El Niño and La Niña months occurred about 55% of the time since 1950. Also, scientists who study historical changes in climate (paleoclimatologists) have presented evidence that El Niño and La Niña events were occurring 3 to 5 million years ago. In other words, not only do El Niño and La Niña events occur often, they've been around a long, long time."

"El Niño and La Niña are siblings, Mother Natures' mischievous but mighty children. Contrary to popular beliefs, they do not counteract one another. This is also plainly evident in sea surface temperature data. Further, El Niño is usually more powerful than his sister. On the other hand, La Niña can endure for as long as three years, while the stronger El Niño normally lasts for less than one year. Look out, though, when they both decide to test themselves as strong events in sequence, wrestling with global surface temperatures as a tag team. Together they can cause global surface temperatures to shift upwards for a decade, until they act together again as a team and cause another persistent change in surface temperatures around the globe. This happens because of some not-so-subtle differences between La Niña and El Niño phases, a fact that is very apparent once you understand those phases."

"The IPCC's climate models are allegedly used to determine the causes of the past warming and cooling of global surface temperatures, and they are employed to project global surface temperatures into the future based on a number of assumptions. Here's a simple but realistic way to look at the climate models: Climate models show how surface temperatures would warm IF they were warmed by manmade greenhouse gases. The truth is, the Earth's oceans do not respond to manmade greenhouse gases as the modelers have assumed. The sea surface temperature records show the global oceans could care less about a little back radiation from anthropogenic greenhouse gases. While global sea surface temperatures have definitely warmed over the past 3 decades, there is no indication that additional infrared radiation from increased concentrations of carbon dioxide caused the warming."

"Examples of climate model problems: Most of the climate models used by the IPCC in their 2007 4th Assessment Report (AR4), in addition to the failings already discussed, have multiple flaws with how they simulate the natural processes taking place in the tropical Pacific. They have difficulties simulating precipitation, cloud cover, downward shortwave radiation, trade wind speeds and location, etc., which are all interrelated and associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Climate models tend to make La Niña events as strong as El Niño events, while in the real world, starting in the late 1970s, El Niño events have tended to be stronger than La Niña events. Recently, though, they've been working their way back to a regime when El Niño and La Niña are more equally weighted. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña events are tied to the seasonal cycle with both phases peaking around December, but this is not the case in all climate models."

"The sea surface temperature and ocean heat content data for the past 30 years show the global oceans have warmed. There is no evidence, however, that the warming was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases in part or in whole; that is, the warming can be explained by natural ocean-atmosphere processes, primarily ENSO."


From Who Turned on the Heat? - "The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation" (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. August 2012).
A preview of the book is available at Preview of Who Turned on the Heat? (v2) - 1 (.pdf, 1,772 KB).

See also
Book Review By Donald Rapp Of "Who Turned on the Heat?" (Roger Pielke Sr., Climate Science, Sep. 12, 2012).

See also The Warming of the Global Oceans - Are Manmade Greenhouse Gases Important or Impotent? (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. September 16, 2012).

See also An Illustrated Introduction to the Basic Processes that Drive El Niño and La Niña Events (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. January 10, 2014).




Bob Tisdale - The Manmade Global Warming Challenge:

I've published an illustrated essay titled "The Manmade Global Warming Challenge". My message: ocean heat content data since 1955 and satellite-era sea surface temperature data indicate the oceans have warmed naturally.


From The Manmade Global Warming Challenge (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. January 1, 2013).

See The Manmade Global Warming Challenge - Introduction,
and The Manmade Global Warming Challenge (Bob Tisdale, .pdf, January 2013).




Bob Tisdale - New Book "Climate Models Fail":

The Free Preview of Climate Models Fail [.pdf] includes the Introduction, Table of Contents, and the Closing.
As you'll note from the Table of Contents, the book includes many of the model-data comparisons I published as blog posts over the past year. The text accompanying them has been rewritten, expanded and edited for readability in this book. And you'll note there are brand new presentations.

As you'll note from the Table of Contents, the book includes many of the model-data comparisons I published as blog posts over the past year. The text accompanying them has been rewritten, expanded and edited for readability in this book. And you'll note there are brand new presentations.

Climate Models Fail exposes the disturbing fact that climate models being used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report have very little practical value because they cannot simulate critical variables of interest to the public and policymakers. Using easy-to-read graphs, this book compares data (surface temperature, precipitation, and sea ice area) with the computer model simulations. It is very easy to see that the model outputs bear little relationship to the data. In other words, climate models create imaginary climates in virtual worlds that exhibit no similarities to the climate of the world in which we live.

This book was prepared for readers without scientific backgrounds. The terms used by scientists are explained and non-technical "translations" are provided. Introductory sections present basics. There are also numerous hyperlinks to additional background information. The book is well illustrated, with more than 250 color-coded graphs and maps. It is an excellent introduction to global warming and climate change for people who are not well-versed yet want to learn more.


From New Book: "Climate Models Fail" (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. September 24, 2013).

See also It Isn't How Climate Scientists Communicated their Message; It's the Message (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. March 6, 2014).




Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a natural long-term temperature fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean. The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years, has a dominant impact on hurricane variability in the Pacific and is probably influenced by the ENSO.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. While the two climate oscillations have similar spatial climate fingerprints, they have very different behavior in time.


Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - 21 July 2014

From Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (NOAA - National Climatic Data Center - June Global release: 21 July 2014)

Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO "events" persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO.

Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: "cool" PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while "warm" PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. A "cool" PDO regime has prevailed after 1998.

See What is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? (NOAA-NWS Western Region Headquarters).
See The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Nathan Mantua, University of Washington).
See The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), The El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Global Warming Science).
See Revisiting "Misunderstandings About The PDO - Revised" (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. May 25, 2009).


Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

"A simple climate model forced by satellite-observed changes in the Earth's radiative budget associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is shown to mimic the major features of global average temperature change during the 20th Century - including three-quarters of the warming trend. A mostly-natural source of global warming is also consistent with mounting observational evidence that the climate system is much less sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions than the IPCC's climate models simulate."

From Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (December 29, 2008).
See also A Primer on Our Claim that Clouds Cause Temperature Change (Sept. 3 '11, in ARVAL),
Our Chaotic Climate System (December 14th, 2012)
(Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH).


The Relationship Between the PDO and ENSO:

"The PDO index represents the spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific (20° N - 65° N) ... not the sea surface temperature anomalies themselves. A strong positive PDO index value indicates the sea surface temperature anomalies of the eastern extratropical North Pacific are warmer than the western and central portions, which is a spatial pattern created by El Niño events. On the other hand, a strong negative PDO index value indicates the sea surface temperature anomalies of the western and central portions of the extratropical North Pacific are warmer than the eastern portion, and that's a spatial pattern created by La Niña events."
[See Figure 1]

"A cooling of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the western-central portion of the North Pacific can cause the PDO index to increase, and a warming of the sea surface temperatures of the eastern North Pacific can also cause the PDO index to increase."

"A La Niña event in the tropical Pacific typically creates a spatial pattern in the extratropical North Pacific where it's cooler in the eastern portion than it is in the western and central portions."
"An El Niño event creates the opposite spatial pattern, where it's warmer in the eastern extratropical North Pacific and cooler in the western and central portions, and that also relates to a "warm" PDO spatial pattern."
[See Figure 2]

"It is often said that the PDO pattern is the dominant spatial pattern in the extratropical North Pacific, and that makes sense because the PDO pattern represents the El Niño- and La Niña-like pattern in the extratropical North Pacific ... and ... El Niños and La Niñas are the dominant mode of natural variability for the global oceans."

"The PDO data are not sea surface temperature data of the North Pacific. The PDO data, on the other hand, are determined from the sea surface temperature data there, using a statistical analysis called Principal Component Analysis. Note the distinction."

"It may be easiest to think of the PDO data in another way - as representing how closely the spatial pattern in the North Pacific at any point in time matches the spatial pattern created by La Niña and El Niño events. If the spatial pattern closely matches the La Niña pattern in Figure 2, then the PDO index value would be negative. The closer the match in the spatial pattern to one created by La Niña events, the greater the negative value. And the opposite holds true for the El Niño-related spatial pattern. The closer the resemblance to the El Niño pattern, the greater the positive PDO index value."
"The map on the right in Figure 2 presents a classic cool PDO pattern, which would be represented by a negative PDO index value."




Even more irregular is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) a large-scale mode of natural climate variability having large impacts on weather and climate in the North Atlantic region and surrounding continents.
Then there are the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), all contributing to natural global climate variability.

Also see Patterns in Arctic Weather and Climate (National Snow and Ice Data Center - NSIDC)




North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low. The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions. Both phases of the NAO are associated with basin-wide changes in the intensity and location of the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track, and in large-scale modulations of the normal patterns of zonal and meridional heat and moisture transport, which in turn results in changes in temperature and precipitation patterns often extending from eastern North America to western and central Europe.

Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-normal temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-normal temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-normal precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia and below-normal precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. During particularly prolonged periods dominated by one particular phase of the NAO, abnormal height and temperature patterns are also often seen extending well into central Russia and north-central Siberia. The NAO exhibits considerable interseasonal and interannual variability, and prolonged periods (several months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are common.


North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - July 21, 2014

From North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (NOAA - National Climatic Data Center - June Global release: 21 July 2014)


See: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (NOAA-NWS - Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: North Atlantic Oscillation),
North Atlantic Oscillation (AGU Chapman conference on the NAO, November 28 - December 1, 2000. University of Vigo (Orense campus), Orense, Galicia, Spain)

For an updated plot of the NAO index (from CRU), see NAO from NOAA/ESRL PSD (Since 1850, averaged Jan. to Dec.)
From Analyze & Plot Long Range Climate Timeseries (NOAA/ESRL PSD GCOS WGSP)




El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Patterns:

"Near the end of each calendar year ocean surface temperatures warm along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru. Local residents referred to this seasonal warming as "El Niño", meaning The Child, due to its appearance around the Christmas season. Every two to seven years a much stronger warming appears, which is often accompanied by beneficial rainfall in the arid coastal regions of these two countries. Over time the term "El Niño" began to be used in reference to these major warm episodes."

"Wetter than normal conditions during warm episodes are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina)."


"At times ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are colder than normal. These cold episodes, sometimes referred to as "La Niña" episodes, are characterized by lower than normal pressure over Indonesia and northern Australia and higher than normal pressure over the eastern tropical Pacific. This pressure pattern is associated with enhanced near-surface equatorial easterly winds over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific."

"Drier than normal conditions during cold episodes, are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina) during their respective winter seasons."

From Warm (El Niño) and Cold (La Niña) Episodes in the Tropical Pacific (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)


ENSO Related Rainfall Patterns:

"During La Niña, rainfall and thunderstorm activity diminishes over the central equatorial Pacific, and becomes confined to Indonesia and the western Pacific. The area experiencing a reduction in rainfall generally coincides quite well with the area of abnormally cold ocean surface temperatures. This overall pattern of rainfall departures spans nearly one-half the way around the globe, and is responsible for many of the global weather impacts caused by La Niña."

"In the left-hand panel you can see the seasonal rainfall totals over the Pacific Ocean, the United States, and South America during January-March 1989 when strong La Niña conditions were present. The heaviest rainfall is shown by the darker green and blue colors, and lowest rainfall is shown by the lighter green colors. The rainfall totals are shown in units of millimeters (mm). Since 25.4 mm is equal to 1 inch of rain, we see that the rainfall totals are more than 800 mm over the western tropical Pacific and Indonesia, which is more than 31½ inches of rain."

"In the right-hand panel you can see the January-March 1989 seasonal rainfall departures from average for strong La Niña conditions. The areas where the rainfall is well above average are shown by darker green colors, and the areas where the rainfall is most below average are shown by the darker brown and yellow colors. These rainfall departures are shown in units of 100 millimeters. We see that rainfall totals were more than 200-400 mm above normal over the western tropical Pacific and Indonesia during the season, which is roughly 8-16 inches above normal! We also see well below-average rainfall across the central tropical Pacific, where totals in some areas were more than 400 mm (15¾ inches) below normal."

La Niña Releated Rainfall Patterns

El Niño Releated Rainfall Patterns

"In the left-hand panel the seasonal rainfall totals during the strong El Niño conditions of January-March 1998 are shown for over the Pacific Ocean, the United States, and South America. The heaviest rainfall [in units of millimeters (mm)] is shown by the darker green and blue colors, and lowest rainfall is shown by the lighter green colors. Since 25.4 mm is equal to one inch of rain, we see that the rainfall totals are more than 800 mm just south of the equator along the International Date Line (indicated by the 180 label), which is more than 31½ inches of rain. And nearly double the normal amount."

"In the right-hand panel the January-March 1998 seasonal rainfall departures from average are shown. The areas with well above average rainfall are shown by darker green colors, and the areas with well below-average rainfall are shown by the darker brown and yellow colors. The rainfall departures are shown in units of 100 millimeters. We see that the seasonal rainfall totals were more than 400 mm above normal just south of the equator along the International Date Line (indicated by the 180 label), which is more than 15¾ inches above normal. Considerable rainfall also occurred farther north (near 40°N) over the central and eastern North Pacific, and across the western and southeastern United States. These areas lie along the main wintertime storm track, which brings above-average rainfall to the western and southeastern United States."

"During El Niño, rainfall and thunderstorm activity diminishes over the western equatorial Pacific, and increases over the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. This area of increased rainfall occurs where the exceptionally warm ocean waters have reached about 28°C or 82°F. This overall pattern of rainfall departures spans nearly one-half the distance around the globe, and is responsible for many of the global weather impacts caused by El Niño."

From La Niña Releated Rainfall Patterns, El Niño Releated Rainfall Patterns (Climate Prediction Center - CPC, NOAA-NWS).

See also Weather Impacts of ENSO (NWS JetStream).

See also El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Indicators (Teleconnections | National Climatic Data Center - NCDC)

See also ENSO impacts (Met Office).

See also Effects of El Niño on the world weather (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute - KNMI).




Long-Term Effects of Strong El Niño Events on Global Surface Temperatures:

"El Niño events cause massive changes in "normal" weather patterns around the globe and El Niño events can cause long-term changes in global surface temperatures."

"El Niño events are by far the largest of any weather-related phenomenon taking place on the planet, and they impact weather around the globe."


Long-Term Effects of Strong El Niño Events on Global Surface Temperatures

"Dr. Trenberth failed to discuss the causes of the "big jumps" in his RMS article. In the blog post Open Letter to the Royal Meteorological Society Regarding Dr. Trenberth's Article "Has Global Warming Stalled?", however, I illustrated and discussed the reasons for them. They were the Pacific Climate Shift of 1976, the 1986/87/88 El Niño and the 1997/98 El Niño."

"The upward steps are precisely what we would expect of ENSO if it is viewed, not as noise in the surface temperature record, but as a chaotic, sunlight-fueled, recharge-discharge oscillator."

From The 2014/15 El Niño - Part 9 - Kevin Trenberth is Looking Forward to Another "Big Jump" (Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. May 20, 2014).

See also The Great Pacific Climate Shift II? (Dr. Joseph D'Aleo, CCM. November 16, 2007)




For ENSO Current Conditions, see Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation (Climate Prediction Center - CPC, NOAA-NWS).

For the Current Conditions of the Global Ocean, see NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) (Climate Prediction Center - CPC, NOAA-NWS).

See also ENSO Wrap-Up - Current state of the Pacific and Indian Ocean (Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology).




Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI):


Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), November 5 '14

Negative values of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) represent the cold ENSO phase; La Niña, while positive values of the MEI represent the warm phase; El Niño. See ESRL-PSD: Multivariate ENSO Index (November 5 '14, Klaus Wolter, NOAA).

"El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Here we attempt to monitor ENSO by basing the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables are: sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky."

For MEI values before 1950 see ESRL-PSD: Extended Multivariate ENSO Index, a simplified MEI.ext index that extends the MEI record back to 1871, based on Hadley Centre sea-level pressure and sea surface temperatures, but combined in a similar fashion as the current MEI.

See also PSD Map Room: Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL).


El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion Archive (NOAA-NWS Climate Prediction Center - CPC):
[Monthly archive since January 2001]

"There is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015."
"During October 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) increased slightly across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were between +0.6°C (Niño-3.4 and Niño-1+2) and +0.9°C (Niño-3) at the end of the month (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 6 November 2014.

"El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015."
"During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3°C (Niño-3.4) to +1.1°C (Niño-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 9 October 2014.

"The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter."
"During August 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices warmed during the month with values of +0.5°C in Niño-4, +0.4°C in Niño-3.4, +0.4°C in Niño-3, and +0.8°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 4 September 2014.

"The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter."
"During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Niño-4, -0.1°C in Niño-3.4, +0.2°C in Niño-3, and +0.6°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 7 August 2014.

"The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter."
"During June 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were most prominent in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening evident near the International Date Line (Fig. 1), This weakening was reflected in a decrease to +0.3°C in the Niño-4 index (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 10 July 2014.

"The chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaches 80% during the fall and winter."
"Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) expanded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May 2014 (Fig. 1), though the collective atmospheric and oceanic state continued to reflect ENSO-neutral. All of the Niño indices increased during the month, with the latest weekly values between 0.6°C and 1.6°C (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 5 June 2014.

"Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer."
"ENSO-neutral continued during April 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific as well as persisting near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). The weekly SST indices were near to slightly above average and increasing in the Niño1+2, Niño3 and Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 8 May 2014.

"While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year, exceeding 50% by summer."
"ENSO-neutral continued during March 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific as well as near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). The weekly SSTs were below average in the Niño1+2 region, near average but rising in Niño3 and Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 10 April 2014.

"ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall."
"ENSO-neutral continued during February 2014, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continuing in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs increasing near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). Overall, the weekly Niño indices were variable during the month, with most indices remaining less than -0.5°C (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 6 March 2014.

"ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014."
"While remaining ENSO-neutral, January was characterized by the periodic emergence of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Weekly Niño index values in Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 bounced around -0.5°C, while Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 stayed within ±0.5°C (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 6 February 2014.

"ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014."
"During December, ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Nino indices in all of the regions were within ±0.5°C and showed only small changes during the month (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 9 January 2014.

"ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014."
"During November, ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). SST anomalies in all of the Niño regions were small, but showed increases in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 5 December 2013.

"ENSO-neutral is expected through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014."
"During October, ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). During the month, slightly below-average SSTs were evident in most of the Niño regions, except for Niño-4, which remained near zero (Fig. 2)."
See ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - 7 November 2013.




Tisdale on the importance of El Nino's little sister - recharging ocean heat content:

"El Niño events release heat from the tropical Pacific, and through ocean currents and changes in atmospheric circulation, they raise surface temperatures outside of the tropical Pacific."

"During La Niña events, the tropical Pacific releases less heat than normal, and global temperatures decline."

"La Niña events are a vital portion of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) coupled ocean-atmosphere process. La Niña events recharge the heat released from the tropical Pacific during the El Niño."

"Note that most La Niña events do not fully recharge the heat released by the El Niño events."

"During a La Niña event, tropical Pacific trade winds rise above normal levels. The increase in trade winds reduces cloud cover. Reduced cloud cover allows more Downward Shortwave Radiation (visible light) to warm the tropical Pacific."

"Contrary to the beliefs of anthropogenic warming proponents the 1997/98 El Niño was NOT fueled by a long-term accumulation of heat from manmade greenhouse gases.
The 1997/98 El Niño was strong enough to temporarily raise Global Lower Troposphere Temperature anomalies ~0.7° C."

"The La Niña event of 1973/74/75/76 provided the tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content necessary for the increase in strength and frequency of El Niño events from 1976 to 1995. The 1995/96 La Niña furnished the Ocean Heat Content that served as fuel for the 1997/98 El Niño. And the 1998/99/00/01 La Niña recharged the tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content after the 1997/98 El Niño, returning it to the new higher level established by the La Niña of 1995/96."

From Tisdale on the importance of El Nino's little sister - recharging ocean heat content (Bob Tisdale, Feb. 13 '10, Watts Up With That?).


See El Niño story, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (NOAA)
Occasionally Asked Questions about El Niño (Billy Kessler, NOAA)
An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO - Part 1 (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. August 8 '10)
An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO - Part 2 (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations. August 16 '10)
El Niño: online meteorology guide (WW2010, University of Illinois)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Project (Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array, NOAA)
NOAA El Niño Research, Forecasts and Observations
El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere (The National Academies)
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (NWS JetStream)
The Definition of El Niño (.pdf, Kevin E. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1 August 1997)
Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years (Mads Faurschou Knudsen, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Bo Holm Jacobsen & Antoon Kuijpers. Nature Communications, 01 February 2011)


Integrating ENSO: Multidecadal Changes In Sea Surface Temperature

"Global SST anomalies rose and fell over the past 100 years in response to the dominant ENSO phase; that is, Global SST anomalies rose over multidecadal periods when and because El Niño events prevailed and they fell over multidecadal periods when and because La Niña events dominated."

"The oceans outside of the central and eastern tropical Pacific integrate the impacts of ENSO, and it would only require the oceans to accumulate 6% of the annual ENSO signal in order to explain most of the rise in global SST anomalies since 1910."

From Integrating ENSO: Multidecadal Changes In Sea Surface Temperature (Bob Tisdale, Nov. 19 '10, Watts Up With That?).

See also Can Most Of The Rise In The Satellite-Era Surface Temperatures Be Explained Without Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases? (Bob Tisdale, Jan. 10 '11, Watts Up With That?).





Images from the GOES East Meteorological Satellite:
(Geostationary Satellite Imagery - Satellite Services Division)

Images from NOAA Satellite Services Division:
GOES East Satellite Imagery: (updated every 30 min.)
Eastern U.S.: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 10 Km, 23° to 53° N, 112° to 48° W]
Central Atlantic: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 3° to 33° N, 76° to 24° W]
West Atlantic: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 3° to 33° N, 106° to 54° W]
Caribbean: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 5° to 35° N, 90° to 40° W]
Puerto Rico: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 12° to 25° N, 77° to 54° W]
Gulf of Mexico: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 4 Km, 18° to 32° N, 102° to 75° W]
South Central US: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 25° to 35° N, 109° to 89° W]
Southeast US: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 24° to 33° N, 94° to 76° W]

GOES East and West Full Disk and Composite Images: Visible - Infrared (updated every 3 hours)
GOES Eastern US Sector Infrared Images: Channel 1, Channel 2, Channel 3, Channel 4.

Image Loops from NOAA Satellite Services Division:   [Adobe Flash]
GOES East Satellite Imagery: (latest 15 images, every 30 min.)
Eastern U.S.: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 10 Km, 23° to 53° N, 112° to 48° W]
Central Atlantic: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 3° to 33° N, 76° to 24° W]
West Atlantic: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 3° to 33° N, 106° to 54° W]
Caribbean: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 8 Km, 5° to 35° N, 90° to 40° W]
Puerto Rico: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 12° to 25° N, 77° to 54° W]
Gulf of Mexico: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 4 Km, 18° to 32° N, 102° to 75° W]
South Central US: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 25° to 35° N, 109° to 89° W]
Southeast US: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow - Water Vapor [Resolution 3 Km, 24° to 33° N, 94° to 76° W]

[The most detailed information on Florida is in the "Southeast US" sequences]


Images from NOAA Satellite Services Division: (updated every 15 min.)
GOES-East Miami, FL WFO Imagery: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow [Resolution 1 Km, 24° to 28° N, 84° to 78° W]

Image Loops from NOAA Satellite Services Division:   [Adobe Flash]
GOES-East Miami, FL WFO Imagery: Visible - Infrared Channel 4 - Rainbow [Resolution 1 Km, 24° to 28° N, 84° to 78° W]

[The most detailed GOES East information on South Florida]


Images from the Naval Research Laboratory:
Naval Research Laboratory - Monterey, California (NRL-MRY):
/Atlantic/Tropics: (updated every 30 min.) [0° to 40° N, 15° to 70° W]
NexSat, NRL/JPSS Next-Generation Weather Satellite Demonstration Project
Multisat Stitched Alantic Basin: (updated every 3 hours) [60° S to 60° N, 180° W to 180° E]
Espectro Visible/Infrarrojo (Geo-Color)

[The easiest image to interpret is the "Visible/Infrared Spectrum (Geo-Color)"]

The images in the Visible spectrum are the closest to what we see with our own eyes, binoculars and telescopes. The images in the Infrared spectrum reveal heavier cloud cover, with condensation. The images in the Water Vapor spectrum reveal up to thin cloud cover and transparency (sky magnitude).


Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite Images (NASA Global Hydrology and Climate Center - GHCC):
 - GOES East 1 km Hurricane Sector Pictures: Infrared, Water Vapor, Visible (most detailed; 1 Km).


Unisys Weather:
 - Current Tropical Atlantic Satellite Images: Visible, Infrared, Water Vapor.
 - Current Southeast Satellite Images: Visible, Infrared, Enhanced Infrared. Radar Summary.
 - Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly.




Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES):
GOES-8 (in the GOES East position) was a geostationary satellite, at some 35,800 Km of altitude, in Lat. 0°, Long 75° W. At his height, the orbital period of the satellite equals the rotational period of the Earth. It was launched in April 13, 1994 and stopped operating in May 5, 2004. In April 1, 2004 it was substituted by GOES-12, with a similar orbit but with higher resolution sensors that was launched in July 2001.
The GOES-13 satellite, launched into space in 2006 and was responsible for tracking weather systems across the eastern United States while the GOES West satellite monitored the country's western regions.
GOES-14 launched in 2009 and was placed in a storage orbit to serve as an in-space spare.
After September 23 '12 the GOES-13 satellite experienced problems with data from the imager and sounder instruments for several days, the GOES-14 satellite has been activated and has replaced GOES-13 as the NOAA operational GOES East satellite. GOES-14 will serve as GOES East until the GOES-13 satellite's malfunction can be repaired. The GOES-14 satellite, currently located above the equator at 105 degrees of longitude, can not cover the extreme eastern Atlantic. GOES-13 resumed GOES East services at 1445z on October 18, 2012.

See GOES-14 Replaces GOES-13 as the GOES East Satellite (NOAA, Sep. 24, 2012)


SPECIAL MESSAGE: GOES-East


In the early hours of May 22, 2013, GOES-13 suffered a loss of its ability to properly track the stars - the system that keeps its sensors pointed towards Earth. While engineers began working on the situation, NOAA quickly switched GOES-15 into a non-standard mode of capturing full hemisphere images every 30 minutes - the typical frequency that GOES-13 collects data. Changes to the images and movies on this page will reflect GOES-15 coverage until the morning of May 23 when GOES-14 is expected to be online and ready to assume the duties of GOES East.

See Real Time GOES East Regions (NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory)


GOES-14 is providing GOES-East coverage. GOES-14 is stationary at 105 degrees West with no current plans to drift east. GOES-13 will remain in storage mode while the anomaly is being investigated. There is no estimate on return to operations at this time. [June 4, 2013]
More information: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html.

The planned GOES-13 return to GOES-East operations scheduled for today, June 6, 2013 at 1534 UTC, has been POSTPONED due to a Critical Weather Day and Tropical Storm Andrea. The transition will be rescheduled for a date yet to be determined, but no sooner than Monday, June 10, 2013.
More information: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html.

GOES-13 has successfully returned to full operational service as GOES-East at 1545 UTC today [June 10, 2013]. All operations are nominal. Operational level 2 processing and distribution of GOES-13 resumed at that time.
More information: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html.

See Office of Satellite and Product Operations (NOAA)




Interpreting Weather-Satellite Images:

"Much as your eye does, visible images record visible light from the Sun that is reflected by cloud tops, land surfaces, ocean surfaces, and snow/ice surfaces."

"Cloud tops, land surfaces, ocean surfaces, and snow/ice surfaces reflect some of the visible light that strikes them, but they emit mostly IR radiation. Wavelengths of this emitted IR radiation that lie in a portion of the electromagnetic spectrum called the atmospheric window pass unaffected through the atmosphere to the satellite, which records them in ordinary infrared (IR) images."

"Note that visible and ordinary IR images tell us little about air itself, since both kinds of image record wavelengths to which air is transparent. However, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases in the atmosphere both absorb and emit IR radiation with wavelengths lying outside of the atmospheric window. Images that record infrared radiation emitted by water vapor, called water vapor images and images that record infrared radiation emitted by other gases, provide information about state of the atmosphere."

"Weather satellites record the "brightness" or intensity of the visible and infrared radiation coming from different parts of the Earth or atmosphere. Black-and-white satellite images display different intensities of radiation in different shades of gray."

"On visible images, brighter (that is, whiter or lighter) areas represent greater intensities of visible radiation, and darker areas represent lower intensities of visible radiation, just as your eye would see."

"On IR images, since our eyes can't see infrared radiation of any intensity, we have to decide arbitrarily how to translate different intensities into different shades of gray on a black and white image (or different colors on a color-enhanced IR image). By convention, we usually translate low intensities of infrared emission to lighter shades of gray, and greater intensities of infrared emission to darker shades of gray. Since infrared emission intensity tells us about temperature (the higher the emission intensity the higher the temperature), the different shades of gray (or different colors) therefore tell us about differences in temperature."

From Interpreting Weather-Satellite Images (Dr. Dave Dempsey, Professor of Meteorology, San Francisco State University)


Also see A View of GOES-8 (RAMMB - NOAA - CIRA)




Graphic Weather Forecasts:


Weather Underground:

Click for Key Biscayne, Florida Forecast   Click for Key Biscayne, Florida Forecast

Click for Kendall, Florida Forecast   Click for Kendall, Florida Forecast


Weather Underground Full Screen Weather (Active Tropical Storm Advisories, Radar and Satellite Imagery)

Weather Underground Tropical Weather (Active Tropical Storm Advisories, Forecasts and Satellite Imagery)

Weather Underground Hurricane Archive (Detailed tracking charts and info for tropical storms since 1851)


Clear Sky Charts for Canada, USA and parts of Mexico - by Attilla Danko:

Miami Clear Sky Chart (Downtown, 25° 46.44' N, 80° 11.64' W)

Kirby Storter Roadside Park Clear Sky Chart (US-41, Big Cypress National Preserve, 25° 52.12' N, 81° 9.84' W)

Bill Sadowski Park Clear Sky Chart: (Palmetto Bay, 25° 36.52' N, 80° 19.09' W)

Bill Sadowski Park Clear Sky Chart


Mahogany Hammock Clear Sky Chart (South of Florida City entrance to the Everglades, 25° 19.43' N, 80° 49.92' W)

Winter Star Party (WSP) Clear Sky Chart (West Summerland Key, 24° 38.98' N, 81° 18.57' W)

Clear Sky Alarm Clock (Mark Casazza)


SERVIR GLOBAL - The Regional Visualization and Monitoring System
 -  Sistema Regional de Visualización y Monitoreo de Mesoamérica (SERVIR) (Sismos, Volcanes, Tormentas, Incendios)


Astronomy Sky Conditions (Environment Canada) Clouds, Seeing, Sky Transparency, Weather forecasts
Regional model, satellite simulation, Eastern United States window (48 hrs. animations)


Intellicast:
Atlantic, Atlantic Analysis, Atlantic Forecast, Caribbean, Europe, South America, United States, World (Infrared).


European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Global medium-range numerical weather prediction - Long range forecasts (Public charts):
   2m temperature, Rain, Mean sea level pressure, Sea surface temperature (SST Anomaly)


NOAA National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC):
3-Days National Forecast Charts


NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) - Southern Region Headquarters

NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) - Miami-South Florida:

NWS Southern Florida - 7-Day Point Forecasts:
4 mi. East of Ochopee (25.91° N, 81.24° W)
Key Biscayne (25.69° N, 80.17° W)
Cutler (25.63° N, 80.3° W), Observed Weather for the past 3 Days: Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport
Florida City, Everglades National Park entrance (25.44° N, 80.48° W)
Key West (24.55° N, 81.77° W)

NWS Southern Florida - Hourly Graphical Weather Forecasts (3 days):
13 Miles WNW of Kendal Lakes West (25.78° N, 80.67° W)
Key Biscayne (25.69° N, 80.17° W)
Cutler (25.61° N, 80.33° W)
18 Miles W of Florida City, near Pa-hay-okee Overlook (25.47° N, 80.81° W)
20 Miles WSW of Florida City, near Mahogany Hammock (25.34° N, 80.72° W)
Key West (24.57° N, 81.80° W)

NOAA NWS Miami Base/Composite Reflectivity NWS Radar

NOAA NWS Interactive Graphical Sector Forecast for Miami, FL


NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center (Outlooks for U.S. Temperature and Precipitation, Hazards, Drought)

NOAA NWS - Weather Calculator

NOAA National Hurricane Center Latitude-Longitude Distance Calculator


TAU Desert Dust Forecast - Transatlantic Saharan Dust Transport (Tel-Aviv University Weather Research Center)




Other Local Meteorological Forecasts:

AccuWeather.com: Hurricane Center, Southern US Weather, Key Biscayne.

Crown Weather (Atlantic Tropical Weather Page)

cbs4.com - Weather (Miami and other Florida cities)

NBC6 Miami - Weather (Miami Weather Reports, Forecasts, Maps & Radar)

7 WSVN-TV - Weather (Miami and South Florida)

Weather.com (The Weather Channel): Miami, Florida - Weather Forecasts, Maps and Conditions,
Hurricane Central, Hurricane Trackers and Hurricane Information,
weather.com/espanol, Tiempo Local - Miami, Florida, Estados Unidos (en Español)
Map Room - Satellite Maps, Weather Maps, Doppler Radar, US Current Temperatures

Weather for Miami, Florida (HAMweather)


Local Meteorological Conditions:

NOAA - National Weather Service

NOAA-NWS Internet Weather Source: Florida Weather Conditions, Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport

NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center: Thunderstorm Outlook, Day 1 Convective Outlook (Categorical, Tornado, Wind, Hail)

NOAA-NWS Miami-South Florida (Weather Forecast Office)

NOAA-NWS South Florida Hazards (Weather Forecast Office)

NOAA-NWS Snowfall Analysis

National Snow Analyses NOAA-NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)
 - National - Current Snow Depth
 - National - Current 24hr Total Scaled Non-Snow Precipitation
 - South - Current 24hr Total Scaled Non-Snow Precipitation

Recent U.S. Snowfall and Snow Depth Maps National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) (U.S. Naval Oceanography Portal)
 - Western/South Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclones Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

Hurricane City Atlantic hurricane tracking,hurricane models and live hurricane coverage

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) (México)

Instituto de Meteorología de la República de Cuba

Meteorological Service of Jamaica Online

Meteorological Department Curaçao (MDC) (Meteo Curaçao)

Tropical Atlantic (Storms Modeling and Reconnaissance)

WeatherBell (Meteorological consulting, Joe Bastardi, Dr. Joseph D'Aleo, Dr. Ryan Maue) [with free Saturday Summaries]
 - Weather Maps
 - Global Temperature Anomalies
 - Global Tropical Cyclone Activity - Dr. Ryan N. Maue
 - WeatherBell Press

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Snow Cover (Environment Canada)

Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing (CSTARS) (Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami)

Stormsurf (Marine Weather Data)
 - South Florida Surf Report (24° to 26.4° N, 83° to 79° W)
 - North Brazil 2 Surf Report (2° to 15° N, 68° to 49° W)

coolwx.com Weather page with truly unique content since 1994 (Robert Hart, PhD.)
 - Hourly United States Weather Statistics: Temperature (°F), Sea-Level Pressure (mb), Estimated Cloud Cover (%)

IntelliWeather: ImageSuite Maps

Weather Street - U.S. Weather, Europe 10-Day Forecast, S America 10-Day Air Mass Temperature Forecast

Weather & Climate Data Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA)




Tides:

NOAA Tides & Currents (Operational Oceanographic Data)
 - Sea Level Trends (World Map)
 - Station 8723214, Virginia Key (Water Levels, Winds, Air Temp, Water Temp, Barometric)
 - Station 8723214, Virginia Key (Tide Predictions - Daily/Weekly/Monthly Views)

NOAA Water Level Station Monitoring: Virginia Key, FL




Hurricanes:

Cyclone: An area of low atmospheric pressure that has a closed circulation. Cyclones (or more commonly called "low pressure areas") rotate counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. They usually bring about clouds and precipitation. They originate over warm waters in an area of low atmospheric pressure and light winds that start turning counterclockwise.

Hurricane: A warm-core tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 kt (74 mph or 119 kph) or more. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. It has a diameter of 250 to 500 miles and a cyclonic circulation typically extending to near 50,000 feet. It is called a Typhoon in the western Pacific north of the Equator and west of the International Dateline, a Cyclone in the Indian Ocean, and Baguio in the Philippines area. (Surface winds are typically measured at an elevation of 10 meters)

Hurricane Season: The portion of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes. The hurricane season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico runs from June 1 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific basin runs from May 15 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Central Pacific basin runs from June 1 to November 30.


The Saffir-Simpson Scale for Tropical Cyclones:

CategoryMiles Per Hour (mph)Knots (kt)Kilometers Per Hour (km/hr)
Tropical Storm (TS)39-7334-6363-118
Cat 174-9564-82119-153
Cat 296-11083-95154-177
Cat 3111-12996-112178-208
Cat 4130-156113-136209-251
Cat 5157+137+252+
CategoryMiles Per Hour (mph)Knots (kt)Kilometers Per Hour (km/hr)
(Effective from May 15, 2012)


See Hurricane Basics (NOAA National Hurricane Center)
See Hurricanes Frequently Asked Questions (NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Chris Landsea)
See Atlantic basin hurricane database (HURDAT) (NOAA Hurricane Research Division)
See Tropical Weather and Hurricanes. Fundamentals of Physical Geography - Dr. Michael Pidwirny, University of British Columbia Okanagan (PhysicalGeography.net)
See Tropical Cyclone Introduction (NWS JetStream)




The Tropical Meteorology Project:
(Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray. Colorado State University - CSU)


Colorado State University October-November Forecast for 2014 Caribbean Basin Hurricane Activity
(.pdf, 1 October 2014):

We expect that October-November will have below-average hurricane activity in the Caribbean basin. This forecast is due to hurricane-suppressing factors from the two predictors utilized. Warm neutral ENSO conditions are currently occurring in the tropical Pacific (a negative factor), while Caribbean basin sea surface temperatures are relatively cool (an additional suppressing factor).


Colorado State University Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity from September 25-October 8, 2014
(.pdf, 25 September 2014) [two-week forecast]:

We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at below-average levels (<70 percent of climatology). The average ACE accrued during the period from 1981-2010 from September 25-October 8 was 12 units, and consequently, our forecast for the next two weeks is for 8 or fewer ACE units to be generated.

The below-average forecast is due to several factors. No tropical cyclones are currently present in the tropical Atlantic, and only one area east of the Lesser Antilles is given a 10% chance of TC formation by the NHC in the next five days. None of the global models develop this TC or any other TC during this time period.


Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2014
(.pdf, July 31 '14):

We continue to anticipate a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. While we only expect a weak El Niño to develop this year, conditions in the Atlantic basin appear especially detrimental for hurricane formation. Atlantic Main Development Region sea surface temperatures are cooler than normal, sea level pressures are higher than normal, and vertical wind shear throughout the Atlantic basin has been much stronger than normal. Landfall probabilities for both the United States and Caribbean are below their long-period average values.


Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2014
(.pdf, June 2 '14):

We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly. We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

Information obtained through May 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that 20 14 will have about 4 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 10 named storms (median is 12.0), 40 named storm days (median is 60.1), 15 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (median is 2.0) and 3 major hurricane days (median is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2014 to be approximately 70 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is slightly higher than the forecast that was issued in early April.


Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2014
(.pdf, April 10 '14):

We anticipate that the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have below-average activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. In addition, the tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past few months. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
Despite the quiet forecast, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.

Information obtained through March 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will likely have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that 2014 will have only 3 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 9 named storms (median is 12.0), 35 named storm days (median is 60.1), 12 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (median is 2.0) and 2 major hurricane days (median is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 65 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2014 to be approximately 60 percent of their long-term averages.

Please visit the Landfalling Probability Webpage for landfall probabilities for 11 U.S. coastal regions and 205 coastal and near-coastal counties from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine. The probability of each U.S. coastal state being impacted by hurricanes and major hurricanes is also included. In addition, we now include probabilities of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes tracking within 50 and 100 miles of various islands and landmasses in the Caribbean and Central America. We suggest that all coastal residents visit the Landfall Probability Webpage for their individual probabilities.

As an example we find that the probability of Florida being hit by a major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricane this year is 13% which is below the climatological average of 21%.
South Florida is much more prone to being impacted by a hurricane on an individual year basis compared with northeast Florida.
For the island of Puerto Rico, the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the island this year is 21%, 10%, and 3%, respectively.


Qualitative Discussion of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 2014
(.pdf, December 10 '13):

We discontinued our early December quantitative hurricane forecast in 2012 and are now giving a more qualitative discussion of the factors which will determine next year's Atlantic basin hurricane activity. One of the big uncertainties for the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season is whether or not El Niño will develop.

Our first quantitative forecast for 2014 may be issued on Wednesday, April 9 if additional funding is forthcoming.

We have been in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995 (despite the quiet season that occurred in 2013), and we expect that typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) will continue.

We anticipate that the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be primarily determined by the strength of the THC/AMO and by the state of ENSO.


Thermohaline Circulation (THC) - A large-scale circulation in the Atlantic Ocean that is driven by fluctuations in salinity and temperature. When the THC is stronger than normal, the AMO tends to be in its warm (or positive) phase, and more Atlantic hurricanes typically form.


Summary of 2013 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Seasonal and Two-Week Forecasts
(.pdf, November 19 '13):

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was much quieter than predicted in our seasonal outlooks. While many of the large-scale conditions typically associated with active seasons were present (e.g., anomalously warm tropical Atlantic, absence of El Niño conditions, anomalously low tropical Atlantic sea level pressures), very dry mid-level air combined with mid-level subsidence and stable lapse rates to significantly suppress the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. These unfavorable conditions were likely generated by a significant weakening of our proxy for the strength of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation/Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation during the late spring into the early summer. Overall activity in 2013 was approximately 30% of the 1981-2010 median.

There were 2 hurricanes (average is 5.5)
There were 13 named storms (average is 10.5)
There were 32.75 named storm days (average is 58)
There were 3.75 hurricane days (average is 21.3)
There were 0 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.0)
There were 0 major hurricane days (average is 3.9)
The Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity was 42% percent of the seasonal average
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was 30 units


Colorado State University Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity October 11 - October 24, 2013
(.pdf, October 10 '13):

We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at below-average levels (<70 percent of climatology). The average ACE accrued during the period from 1950-2010 from October 11 - October 24 was 7 units, and consequently, our forecast for the next two weeks is for 5 or fewer ACE units to be generated.


Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013
(.pdf, August 2 '13):

We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

Information obtained through July 2013 indicates that the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1981-2010 season. We estimate that the remainder of 2013 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.5) [there were 2], 14 named storms (average is 10.5) [there were 13], 75 named storm days (average is 58) [there were 32.75], 35 hurricane days (average is 21.3) [there were 3.75], 3 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.0) [there were 0] and 7 major hurricane days (average is 3.9) [there were 0]. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2013 season is estimated to be above its long-period average. We expect the remainder of the Atlantic basin hurricane season to accrue Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity approximately 140 percent of the seasonal average [it was 42%]. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early April and early June, due to anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic.

Cool neutral ENSO conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific, and we believe that these conditions are likely to persist for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. While sea level pressure anomalies across the tropical Atlantic have been relatively low during June and July, sea surface temperatures have anomalously cooled in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. These cooler SSTs are typically associated with less favorable thermodynamic conditions which we believe could cause slightly less TC activity than expected earlier.

Starting today and issued every two weeks following (e.g., August 16, August 30, etc), we will issue two-week forecasts for Atlantic TC activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August-October. A late-season forecast for the Caribbean basin will be issued on Tuesday, October 1.


Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2013
(.pdf, June 3 '13):

We continue to foresee a very active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains very warm, and we do not anticipate development of a significant El Niño. Given the above-average forecast, we are calling for an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.


Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2013
(.pdf, April 10 '13):

We anticipate that the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have enhanced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.

Information obtained through March 2013 indicates that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will have more activity than the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that 2013 will have about 9 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 18 named storms (median is 12.0), 95 named storm days (median is 60.1), 40 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (median is 2.0) and 9 major hurricane days (median is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2013 to be approximately 175 percent of the long-term average.

Probabilities for at least one major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 72% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)

Probabilities for at least one major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (10-20°N, 60-88°W):
1) 61% (average for last century is 42%)


Summary of 2012 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Authors' Seasonal and Two-Week Forecasts
(.pdf, updated November 29 '12):

"The 2012 hurricane season had more activity than predicted in our seasonal forecasts. It was notable for having a very large number of weak, high latitude tropical cyclones but only one major hurricane. The activity that occurred in 2012 was anomalously concentrated in the northeast subtropical Atlantic. While Superstorm Sandy caused massive devastation along parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast, its destruction was viewed to be within the realm of natural variability."


Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2012
(.pdf, updated August 3 '12):

"We anticipate a slightly-below average remainder of the hurricane season this year due to an anticipated weak El Niño event and a tropical Atlantic that is less favorable than in the past two years. This forecast is a slight increase from activity predicted in early June, due to a slower-than-anticipated onset of El Niño and a somewhat more favorable tropical Atlantic than observed earlier this year. We expect a slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."

"Information obtained through July 2012 indicates that the remainder of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly less active than the average 1981-2010 season. We estimate that the remainder of 2012 will have about 6 hurricanes [there were 10 in total] (average is 6.5), 14 named storms [there were 19 in total] (average is 12.0), 52 named storm days [there were 99.5 in total] (average is 60.1), 20 hurricane days [there were 26.0 in total] (average is 21.3), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes [there was 1 in total] (average is 2.0) and 5 major hurricane days [there were 0.25 in total] (average is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2012 season is estimated to be slightly below its long-period average. We expect the remainder of the Atlantic basin hurricane season to accrue Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity of approximately 90 percent of the seasonal average. We have increased our seasonal forecast from early April and early June, due to a combination of uncertainty in El Niño as well as slightly more favorable tropical Atlantic conditions."

"This forecast was based on a newly-developed extended-range early August statistical prediction scheme developed over the previous 33 years. Our two older statistical forecast models that have been utilized for the past few years were consulted. Analog predictors were also considered."


Summary of 2011 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Seasonal and Two-Week Forecasts
(.pdf, November 30 '11):

"The 2011 hurricane season had above-average tropical cyclone activity but not to the levels that we predicted. It was notable for having many weak tropical cyclones but only slightly above-average intense tropical cyclone activity."

"Atlantic basin hurricane activity in 2011 was well above-average for the number of weak TCs, while more intense TC activity was at slightly above-average levels. Integrated measures such as Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) were at somewhat above-average levels. This was likely due to a combination of anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a La Niña event."

"No major hurricanes made US landfall in 2011. The last major hurricane to make US landfall was Wilma (2005), so the US has now gone six years without a major hurricane landfall. Since 1878, the US has never had a six-year period without a major hurricane landfall."
"No Category 5 hurricanes developed in 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year with no Category 5 hurricanes."
"Hurricane Irene became the first hurricane to make US landfall since Hurricane Ike (2008)."
"Hurricane Irene was the first system to make landfall at hurricane strength in New Jersey since 1903."

"The string of good luck has been even more remarkable for the Florida Peninsula and the East Coast. From 1995-2011, only four major hurricanes out of 64 (6%) that formed in the Atlantic basin have made landfall along the Florida Peninsula/East Coast."

"Atlantic basin hurricane activity in 2011 was well above-average for the number of weak TCs, while more intense TC activity was at slightly above-average levels."

We estimated that the hurricane season of 2011 would be significantly more active than the average season for 1950-2000. We estimated that the hurricane season of 2011 would have about 9 hurricanes [there were 7 in total] (average is 5.9), 16 named storms [there were 19 in total] (average is 9.6), 90.5 named storm days [there were 80 in total] (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days [there were 25 in total] (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes [there was 3 in total] (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days [there were 4.5 in total] (average is 5.0).

The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall was estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expected Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2011 to be approximately 175 percent of the long-term average [it was 135%]. We had decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early December, due to anomalous warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and cooling in the tropical Atlantic."


Summary of 2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Seasonal and Two-Week Forecasts
(.pdf, November 10 '10).

"The 2010 hurricane season had activity at well above-average levels. Our seasonal predictions were quite successful. The United States was very fortunate to have not experienced any landfalling hurricanes this year."


Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2010
(.pdf, June 2 '10):

"We foresee a very active hurricane season in 2010. We have increased our forecast from early April, due to a combination of a transition from El Niño to currently-observed neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. All factors are lining up for a very active 2010 hurricane season."

"Information obtained through May 2010 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2010 will have about 10 hurricanes [there were 12] (average is 5.9), 18 named storms [there were 19] (average is 9.6), 90 named storm days [there were 88.25] (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days [there were 37.5] (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes [there were 5] (average is 2.3) and 13 major hurricane days [there were 11] (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity was estimated to be well above its long-period average. We expected Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 to be approximately 195 percent of the long-term average [it was 195%].
We expected Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in 2010 to be approximately 185 [it was 163] (average is 96.2).
We have increased our seasonal forecast from early April."

Two-Week Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity (for two-week periods between August and October) (.pdf)

"Only one tropical storm made U.S. landfall this year (Bonnie). We have not had a hurricane landfall since Hurricane Ike in 2008. The last time that we went two years in a row with no hurricane landfalls was 2000-2001."

"This forecast is based on an extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. The influence of El Niño conditions is implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor."

"We expect that the current trend from El Niño to neutral conditions will persist and that weak La Niña conditions will develop by the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). The expected trend towards weak La Niña conditions should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009. Another reason for our forecast increase is due to the persistence of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in both the tropical and North Atlantic. Current SST [Sea Surface Temperatures] anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season. Another factor in our forecast increase is the weaker-than-normal Azores High that prevailed during April-May. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons. Another important factor is that we are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of more major hurricane activity. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage."

"We are also debuting a hurricane forecast for activity in the Caribbean Basin. This forecast is based on a statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 60 years of past data. This model is predicting a very active season for the Caribbean."


[Note that this prediction by The Tropical Meteorology Project (Colorado State University) falls near the central ranges of the NOAA outlook]


["Only one tropical storm made U.S. landfall this year (Bonnie). We have not had a hurricane landfall since Hurricane Ike in 2008. The last time that we went two years in a row with no hurricane landfalls was 2000-2001."]


Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2009
(.pdf, June 2 '09):

"We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. We have reduced our seasonal forecast from our early April prediction. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."

"Information obtained through May 2009 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly less active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2009 will have about 5 hurricanes [there were 3] (average is 5.9), 11 named storms [there were 9] (average is 9.6), 50 named storm days [there were 27.25] (average is 49.1), 20 hurricane days [there were 11.25] (average is 24.5), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes [there were 2] (average is 2.3) and 4 major hurricane days [there were 3.25] (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be slightly below the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2009 to be approximately 90 percent of the long-term average [it was 66%]."

"This forecast is based on an extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. The influence of El Niño conditions is implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor."

"We expect current weak La Niña conditions to transition to neutral and perhaps weak El Niño conditions by this year's hurricane season. If El Niño conditions develop for this year's hurricane season, it would tend to increase levels of vertical wind shear and decrease levels of Atlantic hurricane activity. Another reason for our forecast reduction is due to anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Cooler waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are less conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season."


Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2008
(.pdf, June 3 '08):

"We continue to foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2008. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."

"Information obtained through May 2008 indicates that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2008 will have about 8 hurricanes [there were 8] (average is 5.9), 15 named storms [there were 16] (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days [there were 84.75] (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days [there were 29.50] (average is 24.5), 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes [there were 5] (average is 2.3) and 9 intense hurricane days [there were 8.50] (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2008 to be approximately 160 percent of the long-term average [it was 164%]. We have kept our seasonal forecast the same as it was in early April. The primary concern with our current seasonal forecast numbers is the continued ocean surface warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. Although it seems unlikely at this point, there is a possibility that an El Niño could develop this summer and fall."

"This forecast is based on a new extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We expect neutral ENSO conditions to persist during the 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane season, although there is a possibility that a weak El Niño could develop."




Other forecasts on the hurricane season:

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) (Long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide)

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) - Storm Watch Currently Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricanes - Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS)

Tropical cyclones - Met Office

WeatherBELL Analytics 2014 Hurricane Season Forecast (April 8, 2014):
Named Storms: 8-10, Hurricanes: 3-5, Major Hurricanes: 1-2, ACE: 75-90% of normal
WeatherBELL Analytics 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast (March 30, 2013):
Named Storms: 16 [there were 13], Hurricanes: 12 [there were 2], Major Hurricanes: 5 [there were 0], ACE Index: 165 [it was 42%]




Hurricanes: (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration - NOAA)

Images from the GOES-12 Satellite (Hurricane Tracking):
NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) - Tropical Prediction Center - Satellite Imagery:
East Sector Images: Visible, Infrared, Water Vapor (10° a 40° N, 100° a 47° W - updated every 30 min.).
NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook: Atlantic, East Pacific.
NHC Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch: (Marine) (updated daily)
NHC Experimental Graphical Forecast (Graphicast): Atlantic, East Pacific.


Images from the GOES-12 Satellite (Atlantic Sector):
NOAA GOES Server - NOAA Tropical Sectors:
Atlantic Sector Images: Visible, Infrared, Water Vapor (0° to 45° N, 103° to 25° W - updated every 30 min.).

Number of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is between June 1 and November 30.
Its maximum is between mid-August and end-October.
The middle of the season is near September 10.
On average, in a season there are 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes, 2 of them very strong.

See NOAA National Hurricane Center - Tropical Cyclone Climatology
(Trajectories and hurricane frequencies, monthly probabilities for the trajectories of hurricanes),
Historical Hurricane Tracks (NOAA Coastal Services), and NOAA National Hurricane Center - Index of Major U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Tracks: 1851-1860, 1861-1870, 1871-1880, 1881-1890, 1891-1900, 1901-1910, 1911-1920, 1921-1930, 1931-1940, 1941-1950, 1951-1960, 1961-1970, 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2005.
2001-2010. [Stronger than or equal to Category 3 U.S. landfalling hurricane tracks]


South Florida, Biscayne Bay in particular, has the highest hurricane landfall frequency in the U.S.A.; The lowest Hurricane Return Period. See NOAA National Hurricane Center - Hurricane Return Periods.

Since 1851 only 7 of 1,325 hurricanes or tropical storms have passed directly over Venezuelan territory: Paraguaná 1877, Margarita and Paraguaná 1892, Sucre and Paraguaná 1933, Sucre, Central Litoral and Falcón 1974, Paraguaná 1988, Sucre, Central Litoral, Falcón and Zulia 1993, Paraguaná 1996.
See UNISYS - Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year.


See NOAA Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Archive (1999-2014)


2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook [Updated]:

NOAA's updated 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that a below-normal season is likely. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

The main difference between this updated outlook and the pre-season outlook issued on 22 May is that the updated outlook indicates a higher chance of a below-normal season (70% compared to 50%), along with lower chances of a near-normal (25% compared to 40%) or an above-normal (5% compared to 10%) season.

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2014:

7-12 Named Storms
3-6 Hurricanes
0-2 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40% - 90% of the median.


From NOAA-NWS Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (August 7, 2014)


2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook:

NOAA's 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that a near-normal or below-normal hurricane season is likely this year. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of a below-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

The predicted oceanic and atmospheric conditions across the MDR typify a near- or below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, and contrast with those seen throughout the current high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.

The expected conditions for 2014 reflect the likely development of El Niño during the summer or early fall, along with model predictions for near-average or below-average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) (which spans the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean between 9°N - 21.5°N). Also, current atmospheric conditions are not showing the typical precursor signals of an above-normal season, further reducing our expectation for an above normal hurricane season.

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2014:

8-13 Named Storms
3-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40% - 100% of the median.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

These expected ranges are centered below the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Uncertainties:
One uncertainty in this 2014 outlook lies in exactly when El Niño will develop and how strong it will become. Another uncertainty lies in how much the oceanic and atmospheric conditions across the MDR will begin to take on characteristics of the current high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, as they have in most seasons since 1995. Cooler Atlantic SSTs and a stronger El Niño could produce activity levels near the lower end of the predicted ranges, while warmer Atlantic SSTs and a weaker El Niño could result in activity toward the higher end of the predicted ranges.


From NOAA-NWS Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (May 22, 2014)


NOAA: Slow Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close. November 25, 2013:

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Saturday, Nov. 30, had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, thanks in large part to persistent, unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical Atlantic Ocean. This year is expected to rank as the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950, in terms of the collective strength and duration of named storms and hurricanes.

Thirteen named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became major hurricanes. Although the number of named storms was above the average of 12, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below their averages of six and three, respectively. Major hurricanes are categories 3 and above.

From NOAA: Slow Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close (NOAA. November 25, 2013)


Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal. August 8, 2013:

NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season - mid-August through October - yet to come.

"Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized", said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. "Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season."

The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season - June 1 to November 30 - NOAA's updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The updated outlook is similar to the pre-season outlook issued in May, but with a reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity. Motivating this change is a decreased likelihood that La Niña will develop and bring its reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season. Other factors are the lack of hurricanes through July, more variability in the wind patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and slightly lower hurricane season model predictions. In May, the outlook called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

See Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal (NOAA. August 8, 2013)


Busy 2012 hurricane season continues decades-long high activity era in the Atlantic:

"November 30 marks the end of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season, one that produced 19 named storms, of which 10 became hurricanes and one became a major hurricane. The number of named storms is well above the average of 12. The number of hurricanes is also above the average of six, but the number of major hurricanes is below the average of three."
"Based on the combined number, intensity, and duration of all tropical storms and hurricanes, NOAA classifies the season as above-normal. 2012 was an active year, but not exceptionally so as there were 10 busier years in the last three decades."

See Busy 2012 hurricane season continues decades-long high activity era in the Atlantic (NOAA. November 29, 2012)


Updated outlook calls for near- or above-normal Atlantic season, August 9, 2012:

"This year's Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May."

See NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño (NOAA. August 9, 2012)


2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Update, August 9, 2012

"NOAA's updated 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a high likelihood (85% chance) of a near- or above-normal season. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 35% chance of an above normal season, and only a 15% chance of a below-normal season."

"All indications are that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will reflect competing factors, some supporting stronger hurricane activity and some likely suppressing hurricane activity later in the season."

"Favoring more activity are very conducive conditions now in place, which are linked to the ongoing the tropical multi-decadal signal."

"El Niño is a competing factor that acts to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic."

"Based on these competing factors, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity for the entire 2012 Atlantic hurricane season:

See 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Update (NOAA, Climate Prediction Center. August 9, 2012)


NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, May 24, 2012:

"Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season."

"For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says there's a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes."

"Favoring storm development in 2012: the continuation of the overall conditions associated with the Atlantic high-activity era that began in 1995, in addition to near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, known as the Main Development Region. Two factors now in place that can limit storm development, if they persist, are: strong wind shear, which is hostile to hurricane formation in the Main Development Region, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic."

"Another potentially competing climate factor would be El Niño if it develops by late summer to early fall. In that case, conditions could be less conducive for hurricane formation and intensification during the peak months (August-October) of the season, possibly shifting the activity toward the lower end of the predicted range", said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

See NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season (NOAA, May 24, 2012)


End of Hurricane Season 2011, November 28, 2011:

"The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended Wednesday, having produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA's predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995."

"Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first one to do so since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene was also the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991."

"Hurricane Irene made landfall at approximately 7:30 am EDT on Aug. 27, 2011, near Cape Lookout, North Carolina. with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (Category 1)."

"As far as landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with top winds of 111 mph and greater) are concerned, the lull continues. 2011 marks a record six straight years without one hitting the United States. The last one to do so was Wilma in 2005."

See End of Hurricane Season 2011 (NOAA, November 28, 2011)


2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

"NOAA's 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 65% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico."

"This outlook reflects an expected set of conditions that is conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity. These conditions are based on three climate factors:

  1. The tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995,
  2. A continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region),
  3. ENSO-neutral conditions most likely (no El Niño or La Niña), with lingering La Niña impacts into the summer."

"In addition, several dynamical model forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones generally predict an above normal season."

"The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

"The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years."

"The official NHC seasonal averages are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes."

See Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update (NWS, Climate Prediction Center, 4 August 2011)

See Hurricanes: Nature's Greatest Storms (NOAA)
See NOAA-AOML Hurricane FAQ (with Spanish version)


NOAA Still Expected Busy 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

A "very active" hurricane season was expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook updated on August 5 '10 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center - a division of the National Weather Service (NWS).

"We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
14 to 20 Named Storms [there were 19] (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
8 to 12 Hurricanes [there were 12] (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
4 to 6 could be Major Hurricanes [there were 5] (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph).
(these include Alex, Bonnie and Colin)"

"The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:
- Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures - up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average - are now present in this region.
- High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms."

"NOAA's 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook called for an 90% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season."

"NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and issued an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity."

See Extremely Active Atlantic Hurricane Season was a "Gentle Giant" for U.S. (NOAA, November 29, 2010)
See NOAA Still Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops (NOAA, August 5, 2010)


[Note that the prediction by The Tropical Meteorology Project (Colorado State University) falls near the central ranges of this NOAA outlook]


NOAA forecasted for 2009 a season with activity probably near or below the average: From 7 to 11 tropical storms (there were 9), with 3 to 6 turning into hurricanes (there were 3), of which 1 to 2 could be very strong (there were 2). The great majority of these storms and hurricanes was in August, September and October '09.

See Slow Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close (NOAA)
See 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update [Graphic] (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, August 6 '09)
See NCDC: Atlantic Ocean 2009 Tropical Cyclones (National Climatic Data Center)


The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially came to a close on Sunday, November 30, marking the end of a season that produced a record number of consecutive storms to strike the United States and ranks as one of the more active seasons in the 64 years since comprehensive records began.

See Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records (NOAA News, November 26 '08)

NOAA forecasted for 2008 another season with activity probably over the average: From 12 to 16 tropical storms (there were 16), with 6 to 9 turning into hurricanes (there were 8), of which 2 to 5 could be very strong (there were 5). The great majority of these storms and hurricanes would be in August, September and October '08.

See 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Aug 7 '08)
See NCDC: Atlantic Ocean 2008 Tropical Cyclones (National Climatic Data Center)


NOAA forecasted for 2007 another season with activity probably over the average: From 13 to 17 tropical storms (there were 9), with 7 to 10 turning into hurricanes (there were 6), of which 3 to 5 could be very strong (there were 2). The great majority of these storms and hurricanes would be in August, September and October '07 (there were from May to December).

See NOAA: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, May 22 '07. Updated in August 9 '07)
See NCDC: Atlantic Ocean 2007 Tropical Cyclones (National Climatic Data Center)
See The 2007 North Atlantic Hurricane Season - A Climate Perspective (Adobe .pdf, NOAA Climate Prediction Center)


NOAA forecasted for 2006 another season with activity probably over the average: From 12 to 15 tropical storms (there were 9), with 7 to 9 turning into hurricanes (there were 5), of which 3 to 4 could be very strong (there were 2). The great majority of these storms and hurricanes would be in August, September and October '06 (they were in August and September).

See NOAA: 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, May 22 '06. Updated in August 8 '06)
See NCDC: Atlantic Ocean 2006 Tropical Cyclones (National Climatic Data Center)
See The 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season - A Climate Perspective (Adobe .pdf, NOAA Climate Prediction Center)


NOAA forecasted for 2005 another season with activity probably over the average: From 18 to 21 tropical storms (there were 28), with 9 to 11 converting into hurricanes (there were 15), of which 5 to 7 could be very strong (there were 5).

The 2005 season is the most active in the records and continued the cycle initiated in 1995 that will probably extend into coming years.

See NOAA Raises the 2005 Atlantic Season Outlook (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, August 2 '05)
See NOAA Reviews Record-Setting 2005 Hurricane Season (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, April 13 '06)
See NCDC: Atlantic Ocean 2005 Tropical Cyclones (National Climatic Data Center)
See The 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season - A Climate Perspective (Adobe .pdf, NOAA Climate Prediction Center)




Global Tropical Cyclone Activity - Dr. Ryan N. Maue
PhD Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee


Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 1970 - October 31 '14

Last 4-decades of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums.
Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global ACE (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE. [The graphic above is from October 31, 2014]

From Global Tropical Cyclone Activity - Dr. Ryan N. Maue (weatherbell.com)


On June 2011: "Since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE [Accumulated Cyclone Energy] has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s."
"During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at near-historical record lows."

From Global hurricane activity at historical record lows: new paper (Dr. Ryan Maue. Watts Up With That? June 26, 2011)


December 1, 2011: The official end of the North Atlantic hurricane season:

Total number of storms was exceptional (19) with 7 hurricanes and 3 major storms. Not so much outside of the Atlantic...

Statement concerning Irene made on August 27, 2011: The mainstream media has wondered in many recent articles if "global warming" is making hurricanes stronger or perhaps made Irene stronger. As Dr. Kerry Emanuel pointed out -- that question is irrelevant. It is the number of intense hurricanes that actually make landfall that is societally important. However, from a scientific point of view, it is a good idea to recognize that the population of "major" global hurricanes has not increased since 1979. Thinking of the Figure as a stock market ticker, there are always ups and downs, recessions and depressions in activity. But, the overall trend is flat proving conclusively that there is NO "overall" global increase in hurricanes, minor or major. Since natural variability such as El Nino and La Nina is the primary driver of global hurricane variability, any discussion of "climate change" impacts on TCs is woefully incomplete without acknowledging the effects of ENSO on global TC activity. The North Atlantic basin is seemingly special -- in that the current "active-period" since about 1995 has not necessarily manifested itself elsewhere -- and scientists are still unsure of why. Tropical cyclone and climate change science is far from settled, and any conjecture about global warming impacts can be argued from both sides of the aisle in a civil manner without resorting to personal, political attacks.

For a listing of the past 70-years of ACE values for the North Atlantic, see Global Tropical Cyclone Activity - Dr. Ryan N. Maue (weatherbell.com)


2010 is in the books: Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] remains lowest in at least three decades, and expected to decrease even further...
For the calendar year 2010, a total of 46 tropical cyclones of tropical storm force developed in the Northern Hemisphere, the fewest since 1977.
Of those 46, 26 attained hurricane strength (> 64 knots) and 13 became major hurricanes (> 96 knots).
Even with the expected active 2010 North Atlantic hurricane season, which accounts on average for about 1/5 of global annual hurricane output, the rest of the global tropics has been historically quiet.
The Western North Pacific in 2010 had 8-Typhoons, the fewest in at least 65-years of records.
Closer to the US mainland, the Eastern North Pacific off the coast of Mexico out to Hawaii uncorked a grand total of 8 tropical storms of which 3 became hurricanes, the fewest number of hurricanes since at least 1970.
Global, Northern Hemisphere, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Energy (ACE) remain at decades-low levels.
With the fantastic dearth of November and December global hurricane activity, it is also observed that the frequency of global hurricanes has continued an inexorable plunge into into a double-dip recession status.
With 2010 being a globally "hot" year, we will likely see the fewest number of global tropical cyclones observed in at least three-decades...

See Global tropical cyclone activity still in the tank (Watts Up With That? December 15, 2010)




Have Atmospheric CO2 Increases Been Responsible for the Recent Large Upswing (since 1995) in Atlantic Basin Major Hurricanes?

"The U.S. landfall of major hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005 and the four Southeast landfalling hurricanes of 2004 - Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, raised questions about the possible role that global warming played in those two unusually destructive seasons. In addition, three category 2 hurricanes (Dolly, Gustav and Ike) pummeled the Gulf Coast in 2008 causing considerable devastation. Some researchers have tried to link the rising CO2 levels with SST [Sea Surface Temperatures] increases during the late 20th century and say that this has brought on higher levels of hurricane intensity."

"These speculations that hurricane intensity has increased have been given much media attention; however, we believe that they are not valid, given current observational data."

"There has, however, been a large increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity since 1995 in comparison with the prior 15-year period of 1980-1994 (22 major hurricanes) and the prior quarter-century period of 1970-1994 (38 major hurricanes). It has been tempting for many who do not have a strong background in hurricane knowledge to jump on this recent 15-year increase in major hurricane activity as strong evidence of a human influence on hurricanes. It should be noted, however, that the last 15-year active major hurricane period of 1995-2009 (56 major hurricanes) has, however, not been more active than the earlier 15-year period of 1950-1964 (57 major hurricanes) when the Atlantic Ocean circulation conditions were similar to what has been observed in the last 15 years. These conditions occurred even though atmospheric CO2 amounts were lower in the earlier period."

"Although global surface temperatures increased during the late 20th century, there is no reliable data to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe's other tropical cyclone basins since 1979. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) shows significant year-to-year and decadal variability over the past thirty years but no increasing trend. Similarly, Klotzbach (2006) found no significant change in global tropical cyclone activity during the period from 1986-2005."

See Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2010
(Dr. William Gray, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University, part 10, June 2 '10, .pdf)




This is an open letter to the community from Chris Landsea (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, University of Colorado. January 17, 2005):


"Dear colleagues,

After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns."

....

"All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin."

"Moreover, the evidence is quite strong and supported by the most recent credible studies that any impact in the future from global warming upon hurricane will likely be quite small."

....

"It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming. Given Dr. Trenberth's role as the IPCC's Lead Author responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity."

....


Sincerely, Chris Landsea




Tornadoes:

Severe Weather 101: Tornadoes:

"A tornado is a narrow, violently rotating column of air that extends from the base of a thunderstorm to the ground. Because wind is invisible, it is hard to see a tornado unless it forms a condensation funnel made up of water droplets, dust and debris. Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms."

From NSSL: Severe Weather 101: Tornadoes (NOAA - National Severe Storms Laboratory)


Tornado Climatology:

"Because a tornado is part of a severe convective storm, and these storms occur all over the Earth, tornadoes are not limited to any specific geographic location. In fact, tornadoes have been documented in every state of the United States, and on every continent, with the exception of Antarctica (even there, a tornado occurrence is not impossible). In fact, wherever the atmospheric conditions are exactly right, the occurrence of a tornadic storm is possible."

"However, some parts of the world are much more prone to tornadoes than others. Globally, the middle latitudes, between about 30° and 50° North or South, provide the most favorable environment for tornadogenesis. This is the region where cold, polar air meets against warmer, subtropical air, often generating convective precipitation along the collision boundaries. In addition, air in the mid-latitudes often flows at different speeds and directions at different levels of the troposphere, facilitating the development of rotation within a storm cell. Interestingly, the places that receive the most frequent tornadoes are also considered the most fertile agricultural zones of the world. This is due in part to the high number of convective storms delivering needed precipitation to these areas. Simply as a result of the large number of convective storms and the favorable environment, the odds are increased that some of these storms will produce tornadoes."

"In the United States, there are two regions with a disproportionately high frequency of tornadoes. Florida is one and "Tornado Alley" in the south-central U.S. is the other. Florida has numerous tornadoes simply due to the high frequency of almost daily thunderstorms. In addition, several tropical storms or hurricanes often impact the Florida peninsula each year. When these tropical systems move ashore, the embedded convective storms in the rain bands often produce tornadoes. However, despite the violent nature of a tropical storm or hurricane, the tornadoes they spawn (some as water spouts) tend to be weaker than those produced by non-tropical thunderstorms."

"In addition, tornadoes occur throughout the year. Because a tornado may occur at any time of the day or year somewhere in the U.S., there really is no national tornado "season" (as there is with Atlantic hurricanes). Instead, each region may experience increased tornadic potential at different times of the year."

"With increased national Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency."
"There has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years."

"Because most tornadoes are related to the strength of a thunderstorm, and thunderstorms normally gain most of their energy from solar heating and latent heat released by the condensation of water vapor, it is not surprising that most tornadoes occur in the afternoon and evening hours, with a minimum frequency around dawn."

From U.S. Tornado Climatology (National Climatic Data Center (NCDC))

See also Historical Records and Trends (National Climatic Data Center (NCDC))


Annual totals of U.S. tornadoes from NWS Local Storm Reports: 2011: 1,897. 2012: 1,116. 2013: 943.
U.S. Annual Averages (till 2010): Last 30 years: 1,122. Last 20 years: 1,264. Last 10 years 1,308.
Annual Average Number of Tornadoes by State:
Florida: Last 30 years average: 62. Last 20 years average: 66. Last 10 years average: 52.

From Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) (This page has charts of the latest preliminary severe storm reports, annual summaries, and links to comma-separated-value (csv) data files from the NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather database back to 1950).

See the US Tornadoes: Daily Count and Running Annual Trend (updated daily).

See the United States Annual Trend of Local Storm Reports of Tornadoes (updated daily).

Also see The Online Tornado FAQ (by Roger Edwards, SPC)


Also see Tornado Reference Page (Watts Up With That?)

Also see The Tornado Project, Florida Tornadoes

Also see MORE Tornadoes from Global Warming? That's a Joke, Right? (April 29th, 2011. Roy Spencer, Ph. D.)




The Sun-Earth Connection:

Then there is the cycle of activity of the Sun itself, some 11 years, but not very constant in length or intensity. Some of the effects of the Solar activity on the Earth's atmosphere are now just beginning to be studied. The reconstructions of ancient climates reveal a close correlation between Solar activity and temperatures on Earth. The correlation between Solar activity plus oceanic heat transport and temperatures is much more closer than the correlation between the abundance of carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperatures.
At the beginning of 2011, we were near a minimum of the Solar Cycle 23 (on December 2008) that was "late to arrive", the next Solar maximum was expected to occur in May 2013.

"May 8, 2009 - The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction."

ISES - Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression
International Space Environment Service (ISES), Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression

For Solar Cycle 24, the maximum number of Sunspots occurred in November 2011 (Ri=96.7). A second, higher, peak in sunspot number occurred in February 2014 (Ri=102.3).

See Solar Cycle Progression and Prediction Center (NOAA-NWS Space Weather Prediction Center)

The official International Sunspot Number (Ri) is issued by the Sunspot Index Data Center (SIDC) in Brussels, Belgium.


Scientists studying sunspots for the past 2 decades have concluded that the magnetic field that triggers their formation has been steadily declining. If the current trend continues, by 2016 the sun's face may become spotless and remain that way for decades - a phenomenon that in the 17th century coincided with a prolonged period of cooling on Earth.
The last solar minimum should have ended in 2010, but something peculiar has been happening. Although solar minimums normally last about 16 months, the Solar Cycle 23 stretched over 26 months-the longest in a century. One reason, according to a paper submitted to the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 273, an online colloquium, Long-term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields (Matthew Penn, William Livingston, 3 Sep. 2010), is that the magnetic field strength of sunspots appears to be waning.
The phenomenon has happened before. Sunspots disappeared almost entirely between 1645 and 1715 during a period called the Maunder Minimum, which coincided with decades of lower-than-normal temperatures in Europe nicknamed the Little Ice Age. But Livingston cautions that the zero-sunspot prediction could be premature. "It may not happen," he says. "Only the passage of time will tell whether the solar cycle will pick up."
See Say Goodbye to Sunspots? (Phil Berardelli, AAAS ScienceNOW, 14 September 2010).
For a discussion, see The sun is still in a slump - still not conforming to NOAA "consensus" forecasts (Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That?, January 5, 2011).

ISES - Solar Cycle Ap Progression
International Space Environment Service (ISES), Solar Cycle Planetary Index, Ap Progression
[The Ap geomagnetic index is an indirect measure of the Solar magnetic field]

See Solar Cycle Progression and Prediction Center (NOAA-NWS Space Weather Prediction Center)


In the Sun, a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).
As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
See What's Down With The Sun? - Major Drop In Solar Activity Predicted (NSO Press Release, June 14, 2011),
Major Drop In Solar Activity Predicted (Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Planetary Science Directorate, June 14, 2011).
For a discussion, see "All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while." (Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That?, June 14, 2011).


Yearly averaged sunspot number (1610-2013)
The yearly averaged sunspot number for a period of 400 years (1610-2013)
The Maunder Minimum is shown during the second half of the 17th century
Solar Physics Group, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center [November 1, 2013]

"The Maunder Minimum: Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research."

Recent Solar Spot Numbers Cycle 24 Solar Spot Number Prediction

From The Sunspot Cycle and Solar Cycle Prediction (NASA Solar Physics, Marshall Space Flight Center).

See Daily Sunspot Number and Prediction 1985-2020 (.gif, Solar Cycles 22, 23 and 24. Hathaway/NASA/MSFC).

See Average Daily Sunspot Area (.gif, Solar Cycles 12 to 24. NASA Solar Physics, Marshall Space Flight Center).

See Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate (NASA Science. January 8, 2013).




History and Calibration of Sunspot Numbers:

"The sunspot number (SSN) record (1610-present) is the primary time sequence of solar and solar-terrestrial physics, with application to studies of the solar dynamo, space weather, and climate change. Contrary to common perception, and despite its importance, the international sunspot number (as well as the alternative widely-used group SSN) series is inhomogeneous and in need of calibration. We trace the evolution of the sunspot record and show that significant discontinuities arose in ~1885 (resulting in a ~50% step in the group SSN) and again when Waldmeier took over from Brunner in 1945 (~20% step in Zürich SSN). We follow Wolf and show how the daily range of geomagnetic activity can be used to maintain the sunspot calibration and use this technique to obtain a revised, homogeneous, and single sunspot series from 1835-2011."

From History and Calibration of Sunspot Numbers (.pdf, Edward W. Cliver, Leif Svalgaard, Kenneth H. Schatten. July 6, 2011)




Global Warming? (also called "Climate Change")


After the alarm caused by Al Gore's film "An Inconvenient Truth" in 2006, these are my findings about the drivers of Earth's global climate.
Along the way, I learned about the "Greenhouse Theory" and how water vapor, methane and carbon dioxide delay outgoing heat radiation to space. I also learned about how atmospheric convection cools the Earth.
I learned about global climate as a statistical construct.
I learned about the Sun and its cycles, and about how they correlate to climate changes in the past.
I learned about continental drift and the ice core drillings, and how climate has always been changing from the beginnings of our planet, some 4,500 million years ago, and has continued to change since the origins of carbon-based life, some 3,800 million years ago.
I learned about the Milankovitch cycles and the celestial origin of the profound long-range climate oscillations.
I also learned about the "El Niño" and "La Niña" transferring heat across the Pacific Ocean, and their multidecadal effects on the global climate.
I studied the global temperature anomaly records and what they seemed to show, and about their problems with the warm microclimates near cities and inside towns and airports, where most thermometers are located.
I studied the satellite-based global temperature records since 1979.
I have also learned about the United Nations Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, about how this political-scientific organization went about preparing their alarming Assessment Reports.
I have read theory on the effects of the Solar wind on the formation of clouds that shade the Earth reflecting sunlight out to space.
I have learned that carbon dioxide is the gas of life for carbon-based creatures on Earth.

I try to present this science in this long section.
I am thankful to the many scientists that present their work with clarity. I am thankful to the many professional and amateur "climate auditors" that will not let the scientific method be trampled on by politics.


Andres Valencia
Electronics Engineer, Solid State Physics




"Poverty is the greatest threat to the global environment"

From How Environmental Organizations Are Destroying The Environment (Willis Eschenbach, Watts Up With That?, June 26, 2013)




Lindzen: Understanding The IPCC AR5 Climate Assessment

"Carbon restriction policies, to have any effect on climate, would require that the most extreme projections of dangerous climate actually be correct, and would require massive reductions in the use of energy to be universally adopted. There is little question that such reductions would have negative impacts on income, development, the environment, and food availability and cost - especially for the poor. This would clearly be immoral."

"By contrast, the reasonable and moral policy would be to foster economic growth, poverty reduction and well being in order that societies be better able to deal with climate change regardless of its origin. Mitigation policies appear to have the opposite effect without significantly reducing the hypothetical risk of any changes in climate. While reducing vulnerability to climate change is a worthy goal, blind support for mitigation measures - regardless of the invalidity of the claims - constitutes what might be called bankrupt morality."

From Lindzen: Understanding The IPCC AR5 Climate Assessment (Dr. Richard Lindzen, Watts Up With That?, October 8, 2013)




Man-made Global Warming?:

"In 1988 the scientist James Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) announced to Congress (USA) and the world, "Global warming has begun". He went on to report that, at least to his satisfaction, he had seen the "signal" in the climate noise and that the earth was destined for global warming, perhaps in the form of a runaway greenhouse effect. Hansen later revised his remarks, but his statement remained the starting point of widespread concerns over global warming. That same year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed as a joint program of the United Nations Environmental Program, the World Meteorological Organization, and the International Congress of Scientific Unions. It has a mandate to prepare regular assessments of what is known and what should be done about anthropogenic climate change."

See Updating the Climate Science (Makiko Sato & James Hansen, Columbia University)
See Climate Definition, Synonyms (Answers.com)


Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen "embarrassed NASA". He violated NASA's official agency position on climate forecasting ("we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind's effect on it"). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress. [January 15, 2009]

Theon declared: "Climate models are useless".

See James Hansen's Former NASA Supervisor Declares Himself a Skeptic - Says Hansen 'Embarrassed NASA', 'Was Never Muzzled', & Models 'Useless' (Watts Up With That?, January 27, 2009)


Until April 2013 James Hansen was the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) (Study of global climate change).


"More than 1,000 dissenting scientists from around the globe have now challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore."

See Special Report: More Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims (CFACT, December 8, 2010)


"49 former NASA scientists and astronauts sent a letter to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden last week admonishing the agency for it's role in advocating a high degree of certainty that man-made CO2 is a major cause of climate change while neglecting empirical evidence that calls the theory into question."

See Astronauts and scientists send letter to NASA: Stop global warming advocacy (CFACT, April 10, 2012)


Just how good are climate models at predicting regional patterns of climate change?
I had occasion to survey this literature as part of a recently completed research project on the subject. The simple summary is that, with few exceptions, climate models not only fail to do better than random numbers, in some cases they are actually worse.

See Junk Science Week: Climate models fail reality test (Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, June 13, 2012)




Dr. Freeman J. Dyson: The Science and Politics of Climate

"The way the problem is customarily presented to the public is seriously misleading. The public is led to believe that the carbon dioxide problem has a single cause and a single consequence. The single cause is fossil fuel burning, the single consequence is global warming. In reality there are multiple causes and multiple consequences. The atmospheric carbon dioxide that drives global warming is only the tail of the dog. The dog that wags the tail is the global ecology: forests, farms and swamps, as well as power-stations, factories and automobiles. And the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has other consequences that may be at least as important as global warming - increasing crop yields and growth of forests, for example. To handle the problem intelligently, we need to understand all the causes and all the consequences."

See The Science and Politics of Climate (American Physical Society: Freeman J. Dyson, May 1999)


"The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in."

See Heretical Thoughts About Science And Society (Edge: Freeman Dyson, Aug. 8 '07)




Warming Power of CO2 and H2O: Correlations with Temperature Changes

"The dramatic and threatening environmental changes announced for the next decades are the result of models whose main drive factor of climatic changes is the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Although taken as a premise, the hypothesis does not have verifiable consistence."

"CO2 changes are closely related to temperature. Warmer seasons or triennial phases are followed by an atmosphere that is rich in CO2, reflecting the gas solving or exsolving from water, and not photosynthesis activity."

"Monthly changes have no correspondence as would be expected if the warming was an important absorption-radiation effect of the CO2 increase. The anthropogenic wasting of fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere shows no relation with the temperature changes even in an annual basis. The absence of immediate relation between CO2 and temperature is evidence that rising its mix ratio in the atmosphere will not imply more absorption and time residence of energy over the Earth surface. This is explained because band absorption is nearly all done with historic CO2 values. Unlike CO2, water vapor in the atmosphere is rising in tune with temperature changes, even in a monthly scale. The rising energy absorption of vapor is reducing the outcoming long wave radiation window and amplifying warming regionally and in a different way around the globe."

"The main conclusion one arrives at the analysis is that CO2 has not a causal relation with global warming and it is not powerful enough to cause the historical changes in temperature that were observed."

See Warming Power of CO2 and H2O: Correlations with Temperature Changes (Paulo Cesar Soares, International Journal of Geosciences (IJG), Volume 01, Number 03, Nov. 2010)

For a discussion, see New paper - "absence of correlation between temperature changes ... and CO2" (Watts Up With That?, January 1, 2011)




Man-made global warming has not been scientifically proven, while significant reasons for considering this hypothesis as incorrect have been presented:


Committee of Geological Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences:

"The Earth's climate has predominantly been warmer than at present. However, there has been some significant cooling that resulted in the development of extensive glaciations, in some of which ice sheets even reached the tropics. Therefore, any reliable forecasts of climate change, before discussion of prevention or neutralization, should take into account evidence from the geological past when, obviously, neither humans nor industry affected the Earth."

"During the last 400 thousand years - still without anthropogenic greenhouse influence - the content of carbon dioxide in the air, as indicated by ice cores from Antarctica, was repeatedly 4 times at similar or even slightly higher level than at present."

"In the past millennium, after warm medieval ages, by the end of the 13th century a cold period started and lasted up to the middle of the 19th century, then gave pace to another warm period in which we are living now. The phenomena observed today, specifically a temporary rise of global temperature, just reflect a natural rhythm of climate change."

"Instrumental monitoring of climate parameters has been carried out for only slightly more than 200 years and exclusively on some parts of the continents that constitute a small part of the Earth. Several older measurement stations once set up in suburbs now appear, due to progressive urbanization, in the town centers which results among other effects in increased values of the measured temperatures. Profound examination of the oceans was initiated 40 years ago. Reliable climatic models must not be based on such a short measurement data base. Therefore, considerable restraint is desirable if ascribing exclusive or predominant responsibility to man for increased emission of greenhouse gases. The reality of such arbitrary statement on human influence has not been demonstrated."

"Research experience in the Earth sciences suggests that simple explanations of natural phenomena, based on partial observations only and without consideration of numerous factors important for individual processes in a geosystem, lead generally to unreasonable simplification and misleading conclusions."


From Attitude of the Committee of Geological Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences to the question of impending of global warming (February 12 '09, .pdf) (Committee of Geological Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences).




The "Greenhouse Effect":

Svante Arrhenius (Physicist/Chemist, Sweden, 1859-1927) proposed in 1896 a theory to account for the Earth's ice ages, he was the first scientist to speculate that changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could substantially alter the surface temperature of the Earth through a "greenhouse effect".

He suggested that the human emission of CO2 would be strong enough to prevent the world from entering a new ice age, and that a warmer earth would be needed to feed the rapidly increasing population. He was the first person to predict that emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels and other combustion processes would cause global warming.

In 1896 Arrhenius estimated that a halving of CO2 would decrease temperatures by 4-5°C and a doubling of CO2 would cause a temperature rise of 5-6°C. In his 1906 publication Arrhenius adjusted this value down to 1.6°C (including water vapor feedback: 2.1°C).

See Svante Arrhenius - Biographical (The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1903, Nobelprize.org)




Recent estimates from IPCC (2007) say this value (the Climate Sensitivity) is likely to be between 2 and 4.5°C. But Sherwood Idso in 1998 calculated the Climate Sensitivity to be 0.4°C, and more recently Richard Lindzen at 0.5°C. Roy Spencer calculated 1.3°C in 2011.

See Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming (Sherwood Idso. co2science.org, 1998)

See Taking Greenhouse Warming Seriously (Richard S. Lindzen, 2007, in ARVAL, Climatology)

See Global Warming 101 (Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)

See Weak Warming of the Oceans 1955-2010 Implies Low Climate Sensitivity (May 12, 2011. Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)

See More Musings from the Greenhouse (February 19, 2012. Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)




Even More Low Climate Sensitivity Estimates:

"The average value of the best estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity across all the new studies is about 2.0°C. The average climate sensitivity of the climate models used by the IPCC to project future climate changes (and their impacts) is about 3.4°C - some 70 percent higher than the recent studies indicate."

From Current Wisdom: Even More Low Climate Sensitivity Estimates (Patrick J. Michaels, George Mason University, Cato Institute, August 14, 2013)




"Nic Lewis and Judith Curry just published a blockbuster paper that pegs the Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity - how much the Earth's average surface temperature is expected to rise in association with a doubling of the atmosphere's carbon dioxide concentration - at 1.64°C (1.05°C to 4.05°C, 90% range), a value that is nearly half of the number underpinning all of President Obama's executive actions under his Climate Action Plan."

From The Collection of Evidence for a Low Climate Sensitivity Continues to Grow (Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, Cato Institute, September 25, 2014)




IPCC - AR5:

Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence) 16.

16 No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.

From IPCC - AR5 - Summary for Policymakers (D.2 Quantification of Climate System Responses, Working Group I, Approved 27 Sep. 2013)




The IPCC AR5 - First impressions:

According to the AR4 report, the "likely equilibrium range of sensitivity" was 2.0 to 4.5°C per CO2 doubling. According to the newer AR5 report, it is 1.5 to 4.5°C, i.e., the likely equilibrium sensitivity is now known less accurately. But they write: "This assessment reflects improved understanding". How ridiculous can you be?

I think the real reason why there is no improvement in the understanding of climate sensitivity is the following. If you have a theory which is correct, then as progressively more data comes in, the agreement becomes better. Sure, occasionally some tweaks have to be made, but overall there is an improved agreement. However, if the basic premises of a theory are wrong, then there is no improved agreement as more data is collected. In fact, it is usually the opposite that takes place, the disagreement increases. In other words, the above behavior reflects the fact that the IPCC and alike are captives of a wrong conception.

From The IPCC AR5 - First impressions (Nir Shaviv. ScienceBits, 2013-10-02)




New Report: Climate Less Sensitive To CO2 Than Models Suggest  [March 5, 2014]

Oversensitive: How The IPCC Hid The Good News On Global Warming

A new report published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation shows that the best observational evidence indicates our climate is considerably less sensitive to greenhouse gases than climate models are estimating.

The clues for this and the relevant scientific papers are all referred to in the recently published Fifth Assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, this important conclusion was not drawn in the full IPCC report - it is only mentioned as a possibility - and is ignored in the IPCC's Summary for Policymakers (SPM).

For over thirty years climate scientists have presented a range for climate sensitivity (ECS) that has hardly changed. It was 1.5-4.5°C in 1979 and this range is still the same today in AR5. The new report suggests that the inclusion of recent evidence, reflected in AR5, justifies a lower observationally-based temperature range of 1.25-3.0°C, with a best estimate of 1.75°C, for a doubling of CO2. By contrast, the climate models used for projections in AR5 indicate a range of 2-4.5°C, with an average of 3.2°C.

This is one of the key findings of the new report Oversensitive: how the IPCC hid the good news on global warming, written by independent UK climate scientist Nic Lewis and Dutch science writer Marcel Crok. Lewis and Crok were both expert reviewers of the IPCC report, and Lewis was an author of two relevant papers cited in it.

In recent years it has become possible to make good empirical estimates of climate sensitivity from observational data such as temperature and ocean heat records. These estimates, published in leading scientific journals, point to climate sensitivity per doubling of CO2 most likely being under 2°C for long-term warming, with a best estimate of only 1.3-1.4°C for warming over a seventy year period.

"The observational evidence strongly suggest that climate models display too much sensitivity to carbon dioxide concentrations and in almost all cases exaggerate the likely path of global warming", says Nic Lewis.

These lower, observationally-based estimates for both long-term climate sensitivity and the seventy-year response suggest that considerably less global warming and sea level rise is to be expected in the 21st century than most climate model projections currently imply.

"We estimate that on the IPCC's second highest emissions scenario warming would still be around the international target of 2°C in 2081-2100", Lewis says.

From New Report: Climate Less Sensitive To CO2 Than Models Suggest (Global Warming Policy Foundation. 05/03/14)




Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse:
By Professor R. W. Wood

Professor Robert Williams Wood (1868-1955), an American physicist and inventor, in his "Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse" concluded:

"Is it therefore necessary to pay attention to trapped radiation in deducing the temperature of a planet as affected by its atmosphere?
The solar rays penetrate the atmosphere, warm the ground which in turn warms the atmosphere by contact and by convection currents. The heat received is thus stored up in the atmosphere, remaining there on account of the very low radiating power of a gas. It seems to me very doubtful if the atmosphere is warmed to any great extent by absorbing the radiation from the ground, even under the most favourable conditions."

"I do not pretend to have gone very deeply into the matter, and publish this note merely to draw attention to the fact that trapped radiation appears to play but a very small part in the actual cases with which we are familiar."

From Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse (in ARVAL, Climatology)




The "greenhouse effect" would be crucial to the survival of life on Earth, because without it our present global average temperature of some 15°C (59°F) would be instead of some -18°C (-0.4°F).


"When global warming is discussed, the warming effect of greenhouse gases is obviously of prime interest. But it is seldom if ever mentioned that about 50% of the surface warming influence of greenhouse gases has been short-circuited by the cooling effects of weather."

From Why 33 deg. C for the Earth's Greenhouse Effect is Misleading (Sep 13 '10)
(Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)


"While it seems rather obvious intuitively that a warmer world will have more atmospheric water vapor, and thus positive water vapor feedback, I've listed the first 5 reasons why this might not be the case."

From Five Reasons Why Water Vapor Feedback Might Not Be Positive (Sep 14 '10)
(Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)




Does a Greenhouse Operate through the Greenhouse Effect?

"One of the oft-cited objections to the term 'greenhouse effect' is that it is a misnomer, that a real greenhouse (you know, the kind you grow plants in) doesn't work by inhibiting infrared energy loss. It is usually claimed that a real greenhouse works by inhibiting convective heat loss by trapping the sun-heated air inside."

"Of course, changing any of the assumed numbers will change the result. But, assuming I haven't made a fundamental mistake, I think you would find that the 'greenhouse effect' will consistently be larger than the convective inhibition effect."

"So, maybe the greenhouse effect really does work like a real greenhouse."

From Does a Greenhouse Operate through the Greenhouse Effect? (August 11, 2013. Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)




CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic's view of potential climate change

Sherwood B. Idso
U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, Phoenix, Arizona. April 9, 1998.


"Over the course of the past 2 decades, I have analyzed a number of natural phenomena that reveal how Earth's near-surface air temperature responds to surface radiative perturbations.
These studies all suggest that a 300 to 600 ppm doubling of the atmosphere's CO2 concentration could raise the planet's mean surface air temperature by only about 0.4°C.
Even this modicum of warming may never be realized, however, for it could be negated by a number of planetary cooling forces that are intensified by warmer temperatures and by the strengthening of biological processes that are enhanced by the same rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration that drives the warming.
Several of these cooling forces have individually been estimated to be of equivalent magnitude, but of opposite sign, to the typically predicted greenhouse effect of a doubling of the air's CO2 content, which suggests to me that little net temperature change will ultimately result from the ongoing buildup of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere.
Consequently, I am skeptical of the predictions of significant CO2-induced global warming that are being made by state-of-the-art climate models and believe that much more work on a wide variety of research fronts will be required to properly resolve the issue."


From CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic's view of potential climate change (Sherwood B. Idso, April 9, 1998. Climate Research, Vol. 10, No. 1)




Deserts 'greening' from rising CO2:

Increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have helped boost green foliage across the world's arid regions over the past 30 years through a process called CO2 fertilisation, according to CSIRO research.

CSIRO - % Foliage cover change from 1982 to 2010
Satellite data shows the per cent amount that foliage cover has changed around the world from 1982 to 2010.

In findings based on satellite observations, CSIRO, in collaboration with the Australian National University (ANU), found that this CO2 fertilisation correlated with an 11 per cent increase in foliage cover from 1982-2010 across parts of the arid areas studied in Australia, North America, the Middle East and Africa, according to CSIRO research scientist, Dr. Randall Donohue.

The fertilisation effect occurs where elevated CO2 enables a leaf during photosynthesis, the process by which green plants convert sunlight into sugar, to extract more carbon from the air or lose less water to the air, or both.

If elevated CO2 causes the water use of individual leaves to drop, plants in arid environments will respond by increasing their total numbers of leaves. These changes in leaf cover can be detected by satellite, particularly in deserts and savannas where the cover is less complete than in wet locations, according to Dr Donohue.

From Deserts 'greening' from rising CO2 (CSIRO, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Australia's national science agency. 3 July 2013)




The Gas of Life

By Dr. Jim Goodridge - former California State Climatologist [edited by Andrés Valencia]


Photosynthesis simply stated is 6CO2 + 6H2O + photons = C6H12O6 + 6O2.

[C6H12O6 is D-glucose, dextrose, grape sugar, blood sugar. Cells use it as the primary source of energy and as a metabolic intermediate]

It is suggested by the relative abundances of atmospheric CO2 and O2 that CO2 is a quite active material and it is always in short supply.

Plant growth is basically the chemical reaction of storing solar energy. Chemical reactions generally double [in speed] with an increase of 10°C [18°F].
Rising temperatures cause CO2 to boil out of ocean water.

Rising temperature and CO2 concentration both stimulate plant growth.
Our atmosphere originally contained about 30 percent CO2.

The era of chlorophyll dominance is referred to as the Great Oxidation. This happened 2.5 billion years ago. The ocean's dissolved iron rusted out [of the solution], producing our planet's iron ore deposits and releasing oxygen.
Chlorophyll is still the mechanism controlling the CO2 and O2 abundance.

All life forms basically originated by a photosynthesis process. Chemically our hemoglobin and chlorophyll are quite similar, suggesting a common origin; this is supported by a common DNA code.

Whereas animals do not photosynthesize, their plant foods do. Beef, chicken or fish feed off photosynthetic products. It is mainly trace minerals that supplement [the] photo-source.

CO2 is literally the gas of life for all macro life forms we encounter. The existence of extremophiles suggests very early non-solar energy sources.

Demonizing CO2 started with the plan for peaceful use of atomic energy. The big dream in 1946 that was that atomic energy would be so cheap that electricity would never again need to be metered. The attribution of increased CO2 to fossil fuel burning was born then.

Atomic energy advocates wanted to save Earth from runaway Green House heating like [in] Venus.
A conservation ethic developed to conserve the finite petroleum for the future and anti-pollution and anti-growth advocates added voices to the anti-CO2 theme.

All earthly macro life forms are photo-synthetically derived from CO2, either directly or indirectly by chlorophyll that absorbs solar photons. We are here not at the whim of a deity but by evolution of CO2 derivatives.


For the original and a discussion, see The Gas of Life (Watts Up With That?, February 29, 2012)




The case of Venus:

The early climate of Venus is thought to have been controlled by a "runaway" atmospheric greenhouse effect that evaporated its oceans. CO2 is now near 96.5% in its atmosphere (3.5% is nitrogen) and the surface of Venus receives little direct visible sunlight.
The Venusian atmosphere is full of dense, high clouds; 30 to 40 Km thick with bases at 30 or 35 Km of altitude. Venusian climate is determined by its distance to the Sun (0.72 A.U.), its higher albedo and its atmospheric density.

Our atmosphere is not totally cloud-covered, as is Venus (albedo of 0.76); globally, about 40% of the sky is always clear on Earth (albedo of 0.37). Venus has an extremely high atmospheric pressure; 90 times greater than on Earth, and the mean surface temperature on Venus is 465°C, 15°C on Earth.

See Venus compared to Earth (European Space Agency - ESA: Venus Express mission)




The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

"IPCC predicts rapid, exponential CO2 growth that is not occurring."

"The IPCC assume CO2 concentration will rise exponentially from today's 385 parts per million to reach 730 to 1,020 ppm, central estimate 836 ppm, by 2100." "However, for seven years, CO2 concentration has been rising in a straight line towards just 570 ppm by 2100."

"Since 1980 global temperature has risen at only 2.7°F (1.5°C)/century, not 6°F (3.4°C) as IPCC predicts."

"Sea level rose just 8 inches (20 cm) in the 20th century, and has been rising since 1993 at a very modest 1 ft/century (30.5 cm/century)."

From SPPI Monthly CO2 Report: June 2010 (Science and Public Policy Institute)

See Trends in Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa: Recent Global CO2 (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL)




Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

"The observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."

From Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected? (Stephen E. Schwartz et al. AMS Online Journals. Dec. 17, '09)




IPCC - First Assessment Report (FAR), 1990:

"Based on current model results, we predict:
An average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2-0.5°C per decade) assuming the IPCC Scenario A (Business-as-Usual) emissions of greenhouse gases."

From IPCC 1990 FAR Summary (IPCC, FAR, 1990. 1. Science, 1.0.3, .pdf)




The IPCC 1990 FAR predictions were wrong:

"They predicted that if our emissions stayed the same, temperatures would rise by 0.3°C per decade, and would be at the very least 0.2, and the most 0.5. Even by the most generous rehash of the data, the highest rate they can find is 0.18°C per decade which is likely an overestimate, and in any case, is below the very least estimate, despite the world's emissions of CO2 continuing ever higher."

From The IPCC 1990 FAR predictions were wrong (Jo Nova, May 3rd, 2012)




Natural Variability To Dominate Weather Events Over Coming 20-30 Years:

IPCC 2012, Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). Summary for Policymakers. (drafted 18 November 2011, published 29 March 2012)

Part D.  Future Climate Extremes, Impacts, and Disaster Losses

"Projected changes in climate extremes under different emissions scenarios generally do not strongly diverge in the coming two to three decades, but these signals are relatively small compared to natural climate variability over this time frame. Even the sign of projected changes in some climate extremes over this time frame is uncertain."

From IPCC SREX Summary for Policymakers (29 March 2012, pg. 9)

See Climate Change Weather Effects Unknown: IPCC Report (18/11/11, The Global Warming Policy Foundation - GWPF)

Also see IPCC Confirms: We Do Not Know If The Climate Is Becoming More Extreme (29/03/12, The Global Warming Policy Foundation - GWPF)




What is Wrong With the IPCC? Proposals for Radical Reform:

"The IPCC plays a very influential role in the world, and it is imperative that its operations be unimpeachable. Yet the oversight mechanisms of the IPCC simply do not appear to be adequate to assure this."

"This report reviews the IPCC procedures in detail and points out a number of weaknesses. Principally, the IPCC Bureau has a great deal of arbitrary power over the content and conclusions of the assessment reports. It faces little restraint in the review process due to weaknesses in the current rules. And the government delegates who comprise the plenary Panel provide what appears to be largely passive and ineffective oversight."

Ross R. McKitrick is Professor of Economics at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada. He is a Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute and a member of the Academic Advisory Council of The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF).

From What is Wrong With the IPCC? Proposals for Radical Reform (GWPF, Ross McKitrick, 21 November 2011)




The Thermostat Hypothesis: How clouds and thunderstorms control the Earth's temperature

The Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis is that tropical clouds and thunderstorms actively regulate the temperature of the earth. This keeps the earth at an equilibrium temperature regardless of changes in the forcings.

Several kinds of evidence are presented to establish and elucidate the Thermostat Hypothesis - historical temperature stability of the Earth, theoretical considerations, satellite photos, and a description of the equilibrium mechanism.

From The Thermostat Hypothesis (Willis Eschenbach) (in ARVAL)




Does a Global Temperature Exist?

"Physical, mathematical and observational grounds are employed to show that there is no physically meaningful global temperature for the Earth in the context of the issue of global warming. While it is always possible to construct statistics for any given set of local temperature data, an infinite range of such statistics is mathematically permissible if physical principles provide no explicit basis for choosing among them. Distinct and equally valid statistical rules can and do show opposite trends when applied to the results of computations from physical models and real data in the atmosphere. A given temperature field can be interpreted as both "warming" and "cooling" simultaneously, making the concept of warming in the context of the issue of global warming physically ill-posed."

"There is no global temperature. The reasons lie in the properties of the equation of state governing local thermodynamic equilibrium, and the implications cannot be avoided by substituting statistics for physics."

From Does a Global Temperature Exist? (.pdf, Christopher Essex, Ross McKitrick, Bjarne Andresen. June, 2006)




Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) - Global Temperature Record:

The Berkeley Earth Land + Ocean Data anomaly dataset shows no global average temperature increase since 2002.
It shows a warming from 1910 to 1940 of 0.45°C, then a pause to 1975, and a warming to 2002 of 0.55°C.


Berkeley Earth Land + Ocean Data

Berkeley Earth Global Temperature Anomaly Index, 1850 to present.
Annual Average (black) with 95% uncertainty (grey) and Ten-Year Average (red).
[Berkeley Earth land values combined with interpolated HadSST ocean values]
[Above ice air temperatures used when and where sea ice is present]

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study has created a preliminary merged data set by combining 1.6 billion temperature reports from 16 preexisting data archives. Whenever possible, we have used raw data rather than previously homogenized or edited data.

See Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST)




National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) - Global Temperature Record:


NCDC - Annual Global Mean Temperature Anomalies [1880 to 2011]

Annual Global Mean Temperature Anomalies [1880 to 2011] (°C) relative to 1901-2000.
From NCDC - Annual Global Mean Temperature Anomalies (17-Sep-2012, NOAA, National Climatic Data Center).

The NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Annual Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomalies over Land & Ocean database shows a 0.6°C average increase from 1975 to 2005 and a -0.05°C cooling from 2005 to 2011, with a minimum of -0.4°C in 1910. It also shows a cooling of -0.1°C from 1941 to 1975. The warmest years shown are 2010 and 2005, then 1998.
Note the upward steps caused by El Niño: The Pacific Climate Shift of 1976, the 1986/87/88 El Niño and the 1997/98 El Niño. Global warming stopped in 2005 for this graphic.

The above graphic is no longer being updated by the NCDC. A copy of the original graphic is at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-anom/201101-201112.png.

An equivalent graphic can be seen at NCDC - Annual Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies [without the average line or error bars]. It shows a cooling trend of -0.03°C/Decade from 2005 to 2013, and -0.01°C/Decade from 2001 to 2013. Note that global warming stopped in 2001 for the NCDC record.




NCDC have introduced a new method for calculating state (but not national), temperatures in the USA. The new method makes the past cooler, creating a false impression of present warming at the state level. The national figures remain unaffected. This is because they were already being calculated under the new system, creating a similar false impression.

See Divisional Data Comparison Tool (NOAA National Climatic Data Center - NCDC), and Transitioning to a Gridded Climate Divisional Dataset (03/12/2014).


From NCDC Introduce More Temperature Adjustments-And Guess Which Way They Go! (Paul Homewood. Not a Lot of People Know That, March 27, 2014).




The HadCRUT4 time series from the Met Office, the UK's National Weather Service, shows the combined global land and marine surface annual temperature record from 1850 to 2013.
It shows a slight cooling from 2003 to 2013, and also a cooling of -0.1°C from 1940 to 1975, with a minimum anomaly of some -0.5°C in 1910, after some -0.3°C of cooling from 1878.
Note the upward steps caused by El Niño: The Pacific Climate Shift of 1976, the 1986/87/88 El Niño and the 1997/98 El Niño. Note that global warming stopped in 2003 for this graphic.

Met Office - HadCRUT4 - Global Temperature Record 1850-2013

Global surface air temperature anomalies (-0.8 to +0.8°C) from 1850 to 2013 (1961-90 mean)
It shows an increment in average temperature from 1910 to 1941 of some 0.5°C
It also shows an increment in average temperature from 1975 to 2003 of some 0.6°C

Calculating the global mean as the mean of the northern and southern hemisphere averages helps prevent the value becoming dominated by the Northern hemisphere, where there are more observations.

The red bars show the global annual average near surface temperature anomalies from 1850 to 2013. The error bars show the 95% uncertainty range on the annual averages. The thick blue line shows the annual values after smoothing with a 21 point binomial filter. The dashed portion of the smoothed line indicates where it is influenced by the treatment of the end points. The thin blue lines show the 95% uncertainty on the smoothed curve.

From HadCRUT4 Diagnostics: global average (NH+SH)/2 (Met Office - Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK)

See also HadCRUT3 Diagnostics: global average (NH+SH)/2 (Met Office - Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK)




The HadCRUT4 time series from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (UK) shows the combined global land and marine surface annual temperature record from 1850 to 2013.
It shows a slight cooling since 2003 after warming some 0.5°C since 1975.
Note the upward steps caused by El Niño: The Pacific Climate Shift of 1976, the 1986/87/88 El Niño and the 1997/98 El Niño. Global warming stopped in 2003 for this graphic.


HadCRUT4 - Global Temperature Record 1850-2013

Global surface air temperature anomalies (-0.6 to +0.6°C) from 1850 to 2013 (1961-90 mean)
It shows an increment in temperature from 1910 to 1941 of some 0.5°C
and an anomaly of +0.49°C in 2013 (eighth warmest on record).
It also shows a cooling of -0.1°C from 1941 to 1975.

The warmest year of the entire series was 2010, with a temperature of 0.540°C above the 1961-90 mean. The value for this year is not distinguishable from the years 1998 (0.523°C) and 2005 (0.534°C).

From CRU - Global Temperature Record (March 2013, Phil Jones, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK)




The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis anomaly dataset from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies shows no temperature increase in their Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index five-year Running Mean since 2002.




The Annual Anomalies of Global Average Surface Temperature dataset from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows no temperature increase from 2002.
The warmest year in the Japan Meteorological Agency dataset is 1998 (+0.22°C), then 2010 (+0.19°C), 2005 (+0.17°C), and 2009, 2006, 2003, 2002 (+0.16°C) (above the 1981-2010 average).




The annual mean anomalies Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) dataset shows a decline of some 0.7°C from 2003 to 2013 (red line, 10-year running mean).
2006 was the warmest year on record for the HadCET database.
The mean, minimum and maximum datasets are updated monthly.
These daily and monthly temperatures are representative of a roughly triangular area of the United Kingdom enclosed by Lancashire, London and Bristol. The monthly series, which begins in 1659, is the longest available instrumental record of temperature in the world. The daily series begins in 1772.




Don Easterbrook's AGU paper on potential global cooling:
Abstracts of American Geophysical Union annual meeting. San Francisco, Dec., 2008.


Solar Influence on Recurring Global, Decadal, Climate Cycles Recorded by Glacial Fluctuations, Ice Cores, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Historic Measurements Over the Past Millennium

"Global, cyclic, decadal, climate patterns can be traced over the past millennium in glacier fluctuations, oxygen isotope ratios in ice cores, sea surface temperatures, and historic observations. The recurring climate cycles clearly show that natural climatic warming and cooling have occurred many times, long before increases in anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 levels.
The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are well known examples of such climate changes, but in addition, at least 23 periods of climatic warming and cooling have occurred in the past 500 years. Each period of warming or cooling lasted about 25-30 years (average 27 years). Two cycles of global warming and two of global cooling have occurred during the past century, and the global cooling that has occurred since 1998 is exactly in phase with the long term pattern. Global cooling occurred from 1880 to ~1915; global warming occurred from ~1915 to ~1945; global cooling occurred from ~1945-1977; global warming occurred from 1977 to 1998; and global cooling has occurred since 1998.
All of these global climate changes show exceptionally good correlation with solar variation since the Little Ice Age 400 years ago."

"The IPCC predicted global warming of 0.6°C (1°F) by 2011 and 1.2°C (2°F) by 2038, whereas Easterbrook (2001) predicted the beginning of global cooling by 2007 (±3-5 yrs) and cooling of about 0.3-0.5°C until ~2035. The predicted cooling seems to have already begun. Recent measurements of global temperatures suggest a gradual cooling trend since 1998 and 2007-2008 was a year of sharp global cooling. The cooling trend will likely continue as the sun enters a cycle of lower irradiance and the Pacific Ocean changed from its warm mode to its cool mode."

"The real question now is not trying to reduce atmospheric CO2 as a means of stopping global warming, but rather (1) how can we best prepare to cope with the 30 years of global cooling that is coming, (2) how cold will it get, and (3) how can we cope with the cooling during a time of exponential population increase?"


From Don Easterbrook's AGU paper on potential global cooling (Watts Up With That?, December 29 '08)

See Svensmark: "global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning" - "enjoy global warming while it lasts" (Professor Henrik Svensmark, Watts Up With That?, September 10, '09)

See also Don J. Easterbrook, PhD. Geology Professor Emeritus (Western Washington University, Global climate change research)




Global surface air temperatures have been of much interest lately, as some scientists have detected an accelerating 'global warming' trend since 1980 (near 1,5°C per century), while others have detected more recently a significant slowing since 1998, and even a reversal of this trend since 2001. This is shown below for the Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre data (HadCRUT3).

On March 11, 2012, HadCRUT3 was truncated from 2012.08 to 2012.00 and temporarily discontinued. HadCRUT4, its succesor, was released to WoodForTrees on April 18, 2012.


WoodForTrees.org - HadCRUT3gl: Unadjusted global monthly mean temperature anomalies 1980-2014.09 (°C) + linear trends from 1980 & 2001 + 13 months mean

Later it has been possible to see the data in HadCRUT3gl: WoodForTrees.org - HadCRUT3gl: Unadjusted global monthly mean temperature anomalies 1980-2014.09 (°C) + linear trends from 1980 & 2001 + 13 months mean.

The HadCRUT3gl trend from 2001 to 2014.09 is -0.37°C (-0.67°F) per century.

"All the files on this page, Temperature data (HadCRUT3 and CRUTEM3/4) (except Absolute) will be updated on a monthly basis to include the latest month within about four weeks of its completion."


"This [HadCRUT3] is the one of the most commonly cited sources of global temperature data, but the numbers just don't stay put. Each and every month the past monthly temperatures are revised."

See CRU Monthly Temperature is Constantly Changing (January 31st, 2011. The Inconvenient Skeptic, John Kehr)

See also An Open Letter to Dr. Phil Jones of the UEA CRU (Willis Eschenbach, Watts Up With That?, November 27 '11)




The HadCRUT4 time series from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (UK) contains the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1850. It shows a slight cooling since 2002 after warming some 0.4°C since 1980.


WoodForTrees.org - HadCRUT4gl: Global monthly mean temperature anomalies 1980-2014.09 (°C) + linear trends from 1980 & 2002 + 13 months mean

See WoodForTrees.org - Plot of HadCRUT4gl: Global monthly mean temperature anomalies 1980-2014.09 (°C) + linear trends from 1980 and 2002 + 13 months mean

The HadCRUT4gl trend from 2002 to 2014.09 is -0.34°C (-0.61°F) per century.


HadCRUT4 is a warmer temperature time series than HadCRUT3 as it includes much more northern Russian weather stations and excludes most weather stations in the southern U.S.A. It was released to WoodForTrees on April 18, 2012.

See HadCRUT4 and HadCRUT3 Global monthly mean temperature anomalies from 1850 (°C): 13 months mean (WoodForTrees - Observatorio ARVAL).

See Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets - HadCRUT4


"HadCRUT4 has the highest short-term (1976-2010) linear trend, at a whopping 0.177 deg C/decade."

See And The Current Winner Is... (April 17, 2012. Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations)

See HadCRUT4: Statistics, Science and Spin (March 20, 2012. Dr. David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation - GWPF)




Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception
by Dr. Joseph D'Aleo and Anthony Watts
Updated, August 27, 2010


This paper is, as intended, a work in progress as a compilation of what's current and important relative to the data sets used for formulating and implementing unprecedented policy decisions seeking a radical transformation of our society and institutions.


Recent revelations from the Climategate whistleblower emails, originating from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia followed by the candid admission by Phil Jones, the director of the CRU in a BBC interview that his "surface temperature data are in such disarray they probably cannot be verified or replicated" certainly should raise questions about the quality of global data.


Just as the Medieval Warm Period was an obstacle to those trying to suggest that today's temperature is exceptional, and the UN and its supporters tried to abolish it with the "hockey-stick" graph, the warmer temperatures in the 1930s and 1940s were another inconvenient fact that needed to be "fixed".

In each of the databases, the land temperatures from that period were simply adjusted downward, making it look as though the rate of warming in the 20th century was higher than it was, and making it look as though today's temperatures were unprecedented in at least 150 years.


Climategate has sparked a flurry of examinations of the global datasets not only at CRU, NASA, and NOAA, but in various countries throughout the world. Though the Hadley Centre implied their data was in agreement with other datasets and was thus trustworthy, the truth is that other data centers and the individual countries involved were forced to work with degraded data and appear to be each involved in data manipulation.

Should you believe NOAA/NASA/HADLEY rankings for month and year? Definitively NO!
Climate change is real, there are cooling and warming periods that can be shown to correlate nicely with solar and ocean cycles. You can trust in the data that shows there has been warming from 1979 to 1998, just as there was warming around 1920 to 1940. But there has been cooling from 1940 to the late 1970s and since 2001. It is the long term trend on which this cyclical pattern is superimposed that is exaggerated.

These factors all lead to significant uncertainty and a tendency for overestimation of century-scale temperature trends. An obvious conclusion from all findings above and the case studies that follow is that the global data bases are seriously flawed and can no longer be trusted to assess climate trends. And, consequently, such surface data should not be used for decision making.


From Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception
(by Dr. Joseph D'Aleo and Anthony Watts, Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI). Updated, August 27, 2010)




U.S. Temperature trends show a spurious doubling due to NOAA station siting problems and post measurement adjustments:

An area and distance weighted analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends

"A reanalysis of U.S. surface station temperatures has been performed using the recently WMO-approved Siting Classification System devised by METEO-France's Michel Leroy. The new siting classification more accurately characterizes the quality of the location in terms of monitoring long-term spatially representative surface temperature trends. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward."

"The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155°C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248°C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309°C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data."
"This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network."

"The new rating method employed finds that station siting does indeed have a significant effect on temperature trends."


Comparison - All Rated Stations in the Continental U.S.

Comparison - All Rated Stations in the Continental U.S.
What the compliant thermometers (Class 1&2) say: +.155°C/decade
What the non-compliant thermometers (Class 3,4,5) say: +.248°C/decade
What the NOAA final adjusted data says: +.309°C/decade


See Press Release: U.S. Temperature trends show a spurious doubling due to NOAA station siting problems and post measurement adjustments (Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That?, July 29, 2012)
An area and distance weighted analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends (Pre-release, Watts et al, 2012)
(Anthony Watts of California, Evan Jones of New York, Stephen McIntyre of Toronto, Canada, and Dr. John R. Christy from the Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama, Huntsville)




University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) - Satellite-Based Global Temperature Record:


UAH - Global Temperature Report: October 2014

UAH - Lower Troposphere Global Temperature Report: October 2014
Monthly Anomaly in Degrees Celsius (relative to 1981 thru 2010)
Broken lines outline areas that were cooler than seasonal norms; solid lines outline areas that were warmer.
Each contour represents one degree Celsius, starting at -0.5 and +0.5 degrees C.

See Global Temperature Reports: October 2014 (large map)
See also 2013 Lower Troposphere Anomaly Map, 2012 Lower Troposphere Anomaly Map (large maps)
(Dr. John Christy, Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)

See also Media Alarmism (John R. Christy. Video 04:32 ClimateClips.com)




"Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The signals that these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies are directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere."

"As of early 2011, our most stable instrument for this monitoring was the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) flying on NASA's Aqua satellite and providing data since late 2002."

"As of June 2013, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) flying on NASA's Aqua satellite has been removed from the processing due to spurious warming and replaced by the average of the NOAA-15, NOAA-18, NOAA-19, and Metop-A AMSUs."

"The graphic shown below represents the latest update; updates are usually made within the first week of every month."

UAH - Global lower tropospheric temperature anomalies, 1979 thru October 2014, relative to 1981 thru 2010

UAH - Global lower tropospheric temperature anomalies, 1979 thru October 2014, relative to 1981 thru 2010
Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH
[The red curve is the running, centered 13-month average]


Note the upward steps caused by the 1986/87/88 El Niño and the 1997/98 El Niño.
Note that global warming stopped in 2002 for this record, after peaking in 1998:
The temperature trend for UAH NSSTC lower tropospheric global mean from 1979 to 2002 was 1.04°C per century.
The temperature trend for UAH NSSTC lower tropospheric global mean from 2002 to 2014.68 was 0.11°C per century.

See WoodForTrees.org: Temperature trends for UAH NSSTC lower trop. global mean from 1979 to 2002 and 2002 to 2014.68


"The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2014 is +0.37 deg. C, up from the September value of +0.29 deg. C."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2014: +0.37 deg. C (November 3rd, 2014)


"The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2014 is +0.29 deg. C, up from the August value of +0.20 deg. C."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2014: +0.29 deg. C (October 2nd, 2014)

"The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August, 2014 is +0.20 deg. C, down from July's value of +0.31 deg. C."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2014: +0.20 deg. C (September 2th, 2014)

"The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for July, 2014 is +0.31 deg. C, unchanged from June."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for July, 2014: +0.31 deg. C (August 5th, 2014)

"The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2014 is +0.30 deg. C, down slightly from May."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2014: +0.30 deg. C (July 1st, 2014)

"The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May, 2014 is +0.33 deg. C, up from April."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2014: +0.33 deg. C (June 10th, 2014)

"UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for April, 2014: +0.19 deg. C, up slightly from March."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2014: +0.19 deg. C (May 6th, 2014)

"UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for March, 2014: +0.17 deg. C, unchanged from February."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for March 2014: +0.17 deg. C (again) (April 7th, 2014)

"UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for February 2014: +0.17 deg. C, down 0.12 deg C from January."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for February 2014: +0.17 deg. C (March 5th, 2014)

"UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for January 2014: +0.29 deg. C, little changed from December."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for January, 2014: +0.29 deg. C (February 5th, 2014)

"UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for December 2013: +0.27 deg. C, up from +0.19 deg. C in November."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for December, 2013: +0.27 deg. C (January 3th, 2014)

"UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for November 2013: +0.19 deg. C, down from +0.29 deg. C in October."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for December, 2013: +0.27 deg. C (December 3th, 2013)

"UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for October, 2013: +0.29 deg. C."
See UAH Global Temperature Update for October, 2013: +0.29 deg. C (November 12th, 2013)


"UAH V5.5 Global Temp. Update for September 2012: +0.34 deg. C."
"As discussed in my post from yesterday, the spurious warming in Aqua AMSU channel 5 has resulted in the need for revisions to the UAH global lower tropospheric temperature (LT) product."
"Rather than issuing an early release of Version 6, which has been in the works for about a year now, we decided to do something simpler: remove Aqua AMSU after a certain date, and replace it with the average of NOAA-15 and NOAA-18 AMSU data. Even though the two NOAA satellites have experienced diurnal drifts in their orbits, we have found that those drifts are in opposite directions and approximately cancel. (The drifts will be corrected for in Version 6.0)."
"The new interim dataset, Version 5.5, has a September, 2012 global lower tropospheric temperature anomaly of +0.34 deg. C."
See UAH V5.5 Global Temp. Update for September, 2012: +0.34 deg. C (October 5th, 2012)
(Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)


For those tracking our daily updates of global temperatures at the Discover website, remember that only 2 "channels" can be trusted for comparing different years to each other, both being the only ones posted there from NASA's AQUA satellite:
1) only ch05 [14,000 ft/4.4 Km/600 mb] data should be used for tracking tropospheric temperatures,
2) the global-average "sea surface" temperatures are from AMSR-E on AQUA, and should be accurate.
["Channels" 5 and 9 allow comparing against the 1979-1998 average]




"Over the last ten years or so there has been a growing inconsistency between the UAH and Remote Sensing Systems versions of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies."

From On the Divergence Between the UAH and RSS Global Temperature Records
(July 7th, 2011, Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)

Also see More on the Divergence Between the UAH and RSS Global Temperature Records
(July 8th, 2011, Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)


Differences with RSS over the Last 2 Years:

Many people don't realize that the LT product produced by Carl Mears and Frank Wentz at Remote Sensing Systems has anomalies computed from a different base period for the average annual cycle (1978-1998) than we use (1981-2010). They should not be compared unless they are computed about the same annual cycle.

If the anomalies for both datasets are computed using the same base period (1981-2010), the comparison between UAH and RSS over the last couple of years looks like this:


Differences with RSS over the Last 2 Years

Note that the UAH anomalies have been running, on average, a little warmer than the RSS anomalies for the last couple of years.

From UAH v5.5 Global Temp Update for October 2012 +0.33 deg. C (Differences with RSS over the Last 2 Years)
(November 6th, 2012, Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)


The temperature trend for RSS MSU lower tropospheric global mean from 1979 to 2002 was 1.46°C per century.
The temperature trend for RSS MSU lower tropospheric global mean from 2002 to 2014.34 was -0.76°C per century.

See WoodForTrees.org: Temperature trends for RSS MSU lower trop. global mean from 1979 to 2002 and 2002 to 2014.34

See Remote Sensing Systems (REMSS) - MSU lower troposphere global mean temperaure anomaly (K)
[°C = K - 272.15, but the anomaly is the same in °C and K]




New Report: Global Temperature Standstill Is Real
Date: 15/03/13, The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)

London, 15 March: A new report written by Dr. David Whitehouse and published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation concludes that there has been no statistically significant increase in annual global temperatures since 1997.

After reviewing the scientific literature the report concludes that the standstill is an empirical fact and a reality that challenges current climate models. During the time that the Earth's global temperature has remained static the atmospheric composition of carbon dioxide has increased from 370 to 390 ppm.

"The standstill is a reality and is not the result of cherry-picking start and end points. Its commencement can be seen clearly in the data, and it continues to this day", said Dr. David Whitehouse, the author of the new report.

The report shows that the temperature standstill has been a much discussed topic in peer-reviewed scientific literature for years, but that this scientific debate has neither been followed by most of the media, nor acknowledged by climate campaigners, scientific societies and prominent scientists.

The report also surveys how those few journalists who have looked at the issue have been reporting the standstill, with many far too ready to dismiss it or lacking a sense of journalistic inquiry, preferring to report squabbles rather than the science.

"If the standstill continues for a few more years it will mean that no one who has just reached adulthood, or younger, will have witnessed the Earth get warmer during their lifetime", said the report's author, Dr. David Whitehouse.

In his foreword, Lord Turnbull, former Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Home Civil Service, commented:

"Dr. Whitehouse is a man who deserves to be listened to. He has consistently followed an approach of examining observations rather than projections of large scale computer models, which are too often cited as 'evidence'. He looks dispassionately at the data, trying to establish what message it tells us, rather than using it to confirm a pre-held view."


From New Report: Global Temperature Standstill Is Real (Dr. David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 15 March 2013)




Climatologists are no Einsteins, says his successor

"I think any good scientist ought to be a skeptic.", Freeman Dyson said.

"I just think they don't understand the climate," he said of climatologists. "Their computer models are full of fudge factors."

"The models are extremely oversimplified," he said. "They don't represent the clouds in detail at all. They simply use a fudge factor to represent the clouds."

"It's certainly true that carbon dioxide is good for vegetation," Dyson said. "About 15 percent of agricultural yields are due to CO2 we put in the atmosphere. From that point of view, it's a real plus to burn coal and oil."

From Climatologists are no Einsteins, says his successor (Paul Mulshine/The Star Ledger, April 03, 2013)




"Climategate":

E-mails leaked out of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) (University of East Anglia, UK) on November 17, 2009, show scientists colluding to distort data to favor the man-made global warming hypothesis and suppress opinion and scientific works opposing it.
Scientists from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia are leading authors and contributors of the IPCC Assessment Reports on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UNEP).

These distorted data are the "physical" basis for "Global Warming" and "Climate Change".

See East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU) - Emails/Documents - AKA Climategate (Searchable)


"The only reasonable explanation for the archive being in this state is that the FOI Officer at the University was practising due diligence. The UEA was collecting data that couldn't be sheltered and they created FOIA2009.zip." [FOI = Freedom Of Information]

"It is most likely that the FOI Officer at the University put it on an anonymous ftp server or that it resided on a shared folder that many people had access to and some curious individual looked at it."

"Occam's razor concludes that "the simplest explanation or strategy tends to be the best one". The simplest explanation in this case is that someone at UEA found it and released it to the wild and the release of FOIA2009.zip wasn't because of some hacker, but because of a leak from UEA by a person with scruples."

See ClimateGate: The Fix is In (By Robert Tracinski. RealClearPolitics, November 24, 2009)

See Comprehensive network analysis shows Climategate likely to be a leak (Lance Levsen, Network Analyst. Watts Up With That?, Dec. 7 '09)

See Climategate: Caught Green-Handed! (Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI), Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, December 7 '09)


See Climate Emails Stoke Debate (Keith Johnson, The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 23 '09)
See What the Global Warming Emails Reveal (Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 24 '09)
See The Climate Science Isn't Settled (Richard S. Lindzen, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1 '09)
See Climategate: Follow the Money (Bret Stephens, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1 '09)
See How to Manufacture a Climate Consensus (Patrick J. Michaels, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 17 '09)
See The Continuing Climate Meltdown (Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 16 '10)
See The Climategate Whitewash Continues (Patrick J. Michaels, The Wall Street Journal, Jul. 18 '10)


"This is one of the darkest periods in the history of science. Those who love science, and all it stands for, will be pained by what they read below. However, the crisis is here, and cannot be avoided."

From The Climategate Emails (Edited and annotated by John P. Costella, Ph.D. The Lavoisier Group, March 2010, .pdf)


Is the science concerning the current concerns about climate change sound?
Many people, starting with the members of the UK House of Commons Science and Technology Committee, had hoped this question would be answered during the inquiry process, and there is a frequent refrain in the media that the investigations affirmed the science.
But the reality is that none of the inquiries actually investigated the science.

See McKitrick: Understanding the Climategate Inquiries (Watts Up With That? September 15 '10)

See Understanding the Climategate Inquiries (Ross McKitrick, September 2010, .pdf)

See The Climategate Inquiries (A.W. Montford, GWPF Reports, 14 September 2010)




"Climategate 2":


"Early this morning, history repeated itself. FOIA.org has produced an enormous zip file of 5,000 additional emails similar to those released two years ago in November 2009 and coined 'Climategate'. There are almost 1/4 million additional emails locked behind a password, which the organization does not plan on releasing at this time."

See Climategate 2.0 emails (Watts Up With That?, News Staff, November 22, 2011)

See Mr. David Palmer Explains The Problem (Watts Up With That?, Willis Eschenbach, November 23, 2011)

See Climategate 2.0: the not nice and clueless Phil Jones (The Telegraph, James Delingpole, November 24, 2011)

See Climategate 2.0 (The Wall Street Journal, James Delingpole, November 28, 2011)

See The Great Global Warming Fizzle (The Wall Street Journal, Bret Stephens, November 29, 2011)




"Climategate 2" | FOIA 2011 Searchable Database:

"This website is provided as a research resource for mining the recently leaked climate communications. Every effort has been made to redact personal contact information such as email addresses and telephone numbers. The redaction algorithms are currently tuned to be quite stringent, and they will inadvertently obfuscate other details as well. We will continue to tune the software to improve the quality of the results."

"This database was assembled in a very short space of time, and at present only provides the most rudimentary tools for exploring this vast trove of material. We will be improving the quality of the search tools and adding further metadata to the database over the course of the next few weeks."

See Climategate 2 | FOIA 2011 Searchable Database




Welcome to the ClimateGate FOIA Grepper !!!

"This is a searchable service of both ClimateGate I and II emails. All full emails, telephone numbers and passwords have been redacted (replaced with ???). Note: you can still search by them if you know them, they just won't show in the results."

"If you're wondering why this is on an Eco site it's because we are interested in fact led research and development that leads to a better future for all; ClimateGate is very indicative that at the very core of climate research the high standards that we all expected for such core research are not being upheld."


"Behind the scenes, I've been playing with a new neat tool for hunting hypocrisy, corruption, bias and unprofessional behaviour and I'm pleased to announce it's ready to share with the world. The kudos for this all belongs to, as usual, a skilled volunteer. Thanks to EcoGuy for turning his rapid-fire coding ability onto this."

"On the EcoWho site he has helpfully placed all of Climategate I and II together into a combined searchable database. It's fast, easy to scan, it copes with tricky search requests and provides a link to the full email from the results page of the search."

See Hot new search tool for Climategate - I and II combined (Jo Nova, November 25, 2011)




The Skeptic's Case

Who Are You Going To Believe - The Government Climate Scientists or The Data?

We check the main predictions of the climate models against the best and latest data. Fortunately the climate models got all their major predictions wrong. Why? Every serious skeptical scientist has been consistently saying essentially the same thing for over 20 years, yet most people have never heard the message - here it is, put simply enough for any lay reader willing to pay attention.


27 Feb. 2012, Dr. David M.W. Evans
Mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering.

See The Skeptic's Case (at ARVAL's Climate page)




Observed and Modeled Global Temperature Evolution, 1951-2013:

Figure 1. Observed and Modeled Global Temperature Evolution, 1951-2013

Figure 1. Observed global average temperature evolution, 1951-2013, as compiled by the U.K's Hadley Center (black line), and the average temperature change projected by a collection of climate models used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report which have a climate sensitivity greater than 3.0°C (red line) and a collection of models with climate sensitivities less than 3.0°C (blue line) (climate model data source: KNMI Climate Explorer).

From 'Worse Than We Thought' Rears Ugly Head Again (Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger. Cato @ Liberty, January 6, 2014)




Hundreds of millions of dollars that have gone into the expensive climate modelling enterprise has all but destroyed governmental funding of research into natural sources of climate change. For years the modelers have maintained that there is no such thing as natural climate change... yet they now, ironically, have to invoke natural climate forces to explain why surface warming has essentially stopped in the last 15 years!

From STILL Epic Fail: 73 Climate Models vs. Measurements, Running 5-Year Means
(Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH. June 6th, 2013)




Science is not based on models but on autentic measurements. Models must be based on science, not the other way around.

On Earth's atmosphere, CO2 is some 0.06% in volume; surely not enough to cause a catastrophyc greenhouse effect.
According to some global climatologists and the IPCC climate models, there would be a strong positive feedback action on water vapor amplifying the CO2 effect to be much more potent, but this theoretical effect has not been measured in practice. It might be very small or even negative.

Understanding that a trace amount of CO2 can not be a main cause of a catastrophyc atmospheric greenhouse effect means we are more in control of the quality of the air. We are more responsible for our planet regarding the atmospheric pollution we cause, and pollution must be minimized for the water and the ground too, and extensive deforestation must cease. CO2 is not a pollutant; It's the gas of life on Earth!


For more information,
see Climate Change ("Global Warming"?)  The cyclic nature of Earth's climate (Conference in ARVAL)




References:


Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse
(By Professor R. W. Wood, Philosophical Magazine, 1909. Vol. 17, pp. 319-320) [in tech-archive.net]
The theory of heat radiation (Max Planck, 1913. M. Masius translation)
Cargo Cult Science (.pdf, Dr. Richard P. Feynman, 1974. Caltech)
Some Coolness Concerning Global Warming (Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71, 288-299. Richard S. Lindzen, 1990)
Sound and Fury: The Science and Politics of Global Warming (Cato Institute. Patrick J. Michaels, May 12, 1992, .pdf)
What To Do about Greenhouse Warming: Look Before You Leap (S. Fred Singer, Roger Revelle and Chauncey Starr. Cosmos: A Journal of Emerging Issues Vol. 5, No. 2, Summer 1992, .pdf)
Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus (Cato Institute. Richard S. Lindzen, 1992)
Ice Core Data Show No Carbon Dioxide Increase (By Zbigniew Jaworowski, Ph.D., Spring 1997, .pdf)
Climate Change Challenging the Conventional Wisdom (Edited by Julian Morris, Institute of Economic Affairs, December 1997, .pdf)
Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris? (.pdf, Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, and Arthur Y. Hou. March, 2001)
On the ENSO Mechanisms [ENSO oscillator mechanisms] (.pdf, Chunzai Wang, NOAA. March, 2001)
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Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years (.pdf, Willie Soon, Sallie Baliunas. 31 January, 2003)
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Long-Term Variations of the Integral Radiation Flux (.pdf, Kh. I. Abdussamatov. 10 October 2005)
The Time of the End of the Current Solar Cycle (.pdf, Kh. I. Abdussamatov. 18 May 2006)
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The "Wegman Report" (.pdf, Edward J. Wegman, David W. Scott, Yasmin H. Said. 14 July, 2006)
Optimal Prediction of the Peak of the Next 11-Year Activity Cycle (.pdf, Kh. I. Abdussamatov. 28 Aug. 2006)
Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational constraints (I.G. Usoskin, S.K. Solanki, G.A. Kovaltsov, 24 April, 2007)
The Myth of Dangerous Human-Caused Climate Change (Professor Robert M. Carter, May 2007)
Czech Republic: President Says Freedom is Endangered, Not Climate (Dr. Václav Klaus, August 3, 2007)
Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earth's climate (Richard Mackey, Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia, 2007)
El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection (.pdf, K. Ashok, S.K. Behera, S.A. Rao, H. Weng, T. Yamagata. JAMSTEC, Nov. 8, 2007)
Has global warming stopped? (David Whitehouse, New Statesman, December 19, 2007)
Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change (Agreed at New York, 4 March 2008)
Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions? (Richard S. Lindzen, 29 Nov 2008)
Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making (.pdf, K.C. Green, J.S. Armstrong, W. Soon, International Journal of Forecasting, 2009)
Cada 'empleo verde' que promete Zapatero cuesta 571.138 euros a los españoles (Gabriel Calzada, Instituto Juan de Mariana, Marzo 30, 2009)
Green Jobs, Ole: Is the Spanish Clean-Energy Push a Cautionary Tale? (Keith Johnson, The Wall Street Journal, March 30, 2009)
The Thermostat Hypothesis (Willis Eschenbach, Watts Up With That?, June 14 '09)
Thriving with Nature and Humanity (.pdf, Malcom Roberts, 2009. New Zealand Climate Science Coalition)
Global warming: Our best guess is likely wrong (Jade Boyd, Rice University News, July 14 '09)
Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature (J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637, 2009, Jul. 23 '09)
What happened to global warming? (BBC NEWS | Science & Environment, Oct. 9 '09)
Not Evil Just Wrong - Blog (The true cost of global warming hysteria)
 - Not Evil Just Wrong (Documentary film, Phelim McAleer and Ann McElhinney, Oct. 18 '09)
The real climate change catastrophe (Christopher Booker, Telegraph.co.uk, Oct. 25 '09)
A Climatology Conspiracy? (David H. Douglass and John R. Christy, American Thinker, December 20, 2009)
Climategate: CRU Was But the Tip of the Iceberg (Marc Sheppard, American Thinker, January 22, 2010)
Ignoring 'Climategate' (Jillian Melchior, Commentary Magazine, February 2010)
The end of the IPCC (S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Feb. 10 '10)
'Archaic' Network Provides Data Behind Global Warming Theory, Critics Say (Joseph Abrams. Fox News, March 2, 2010)
Wind power Is No Solution To Anything (A Guest Weblog By Henk Tennekes, March 3, 2010)
ClimateGate Whitewash (S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Apr. 14 '10)
CO2 heats the atmosphere...a counter view (Tom Vonk, Watts Up With That?, August 5 '10)
Is the Western Climate Establishment Corrupt? (Dr. David Evans, 11 Nov. 2010, 28 Feb. 2011)
Good bye, Kyoto (S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Mar. 13 '11)
The Threats Coming from the Global Warming Doctrine: Remarks to the Presentation of the Book "Planeta Azul (No Verde)" in Argentina (Dr. Václav Klaus, 31 March 2011)
How Scientific Is Climate Science? (Douglas Keenan, The Wall Street Journal, April 5, 2011)
The Chaos theoretic argument that undermines Climate Change modelling (Andy Edmonds PhD, 13 June 2011)
Changing Tides: Research Center Under Fire for 'Adjusted' Sea-Level Data (Maxim Lott. Fox News, June 17, 2011)
Science and Smear Merchants (S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, June 21, 2011)
Unknown and uncertain sea surface temperatures (Tony Brown, Climate Etc., 27 June 2011)
The Truth About Greenhouse Gases (First Things, June/July 2011, William Happer, Princeton University)
It's Not About Feedback (Willis Eschenbach, Watts Up With That?, August 14 '11)
What is Wrong with Global Warming Anyway? (Dr. David D. Friedman, September 5, 2011)
Climate Change: The Dangerous Faith (Sydney speech) (Dr. Václav Klaus, 21 September 2011)
Why BEST Will Not Settle the Climate Debate (S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Nov. 17, 2011)
The long, slow thaw? (Tony Brown, Climate Etc., 1 December 2011)
Climategate Bombshell: Did U.S. Gov't Help Hide Climate Data? (Maxim Lott. Fox News, December 16, 2011)
Fake! Fake! Fake! Fake! (S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, January 2, 2012)
Sixteen Concerned Scientists: No Need to Panic About Global Warming (Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2012)
The Anthropogenic Climate-Change Debate Continues (Letters, The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2012)
Concerned Scientists Reply on Global Warming (Letters, The Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2012)
Hartmut Michel, Nobel Prize winning biochemist says ALL biofuels are "nonsense" (Climate Sanity, February 25, 2012)
The Skeptic's Case (Dr. David M.W. Evans, 27 February 2012)
Global Warming Models Are Wrong Again (Dr. William Happer, The Wall Street Journal, 27 March 2012)
Proof global warming isn't making weather wackier? (Maxim Lott. Fox News, April 30, 2012)
The Physical Flaws of the Global Warming Theory and Deep Ocean Circulation Changes as the Primary Climate Driver (William M. Gray Professor Emeritus, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University. May 21-23, 2012, .pdf)
Soon and Briggs: Global-warming fanatics take note (Willie Soon and William M. Briggs, The Washington Times, September 6, 2012)
Climate Realism (S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, September 26, 2012)
Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it (David Rose, The MailOnline, October 13, 2012)
Rothbard and Rucker: Environmentalist power trips harm poor countries (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker, The Washington Times, December 4, 2012)
James Lovelock Letter, December 2012 (.pdf, Bishop Hill, December 11, 2012)
Matt Ridley: Cooling Down the Fears of Climate Change (Opinion, The Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2012)
Hottest year ever? Skeptics question revisions to climate data (Maxim Lott. Fox News, January 10, 2013)
Leaked UN climate report slammed for citing WWF, Greenpeace (Maxim Lott, Charles Couger. Fox News, January 23, 2013)
Draft UN climate report shows 20 years of overestimated global warming, skeptics warn (Maxim Lott, Charles Couger. Fox News, January 28, 2013)
Emergent Climate Phenomena (Willis Eschenbach, Watts Up With That?, February 7, 2013)
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records (.pdf, H.-J. Lüdecke, A. Hempelmann, and C.O. Weiss. February 22, 2013)
The Anatomy of Climate Science Hype (S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, March 5, 2013)
Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes (.pdf, N. Scafetta, 10 April 2013)
Report: Consensus And Controversy - The Debate On Man-Made Global Warming (.pdf, Emil A. Røyrvik, SINTEF, 2013-04-12)
Lawrence Solomon: History trumps climate scientists (Financial Post, 13/04/23)
Dr. Roy Spencer on Global Warming, 'No one knows' (Catholic Online, 4/25/2013)
Harrison H. Schmitt and William Happer: In Defense of Carbon Dioxide (The Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2013)
Met Office admits claims of significant temperature rise untenable (Douglas Keenan, Bishop Hill blog, May 28, 2013)
Climate change: A cooling consensus (The Economist, Jun 20th 2013)
Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs (.pdf, Nicola Scafetta. Energy & Environment, July 16, 2013)
Distorted data? Feds close 600 weather stations amid criticism they're situated to report warming (Maxim Lott. Fox News, August 13, 2013)
Science in the Public Square: Global Climate Alarmism and Historical Precedents (.pdf, Richard S. Lindzen. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Volume 18 Number 3, Fall 2013)
Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds (Maxim Lott. Fox News, September 12, 2013)
Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change (Matt Ridley. Opinion, The Wall Street Journal, September 14, 2013)
IPCC models getting mushy (Ross McKitrick. Financial Post, September 16, 2013)
Climate change: this is not science - it's mumbo jumbo (Nigel Lawson. The Telegraph, September 28, 2013)
Why climate change is good for the world (Matt Ridley. The Spectator, October 19, 2013)
Statistical Analyses of Surface Temperatures in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (.pdf, Draft. Douglas J. Keenan. October 29, 2013)
IPCC's Bogus Evidence for Global Warming (S. Fred Singer. American Thinker, November 12, 2013)
Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age (.pdf, Habibullo Abdussamatov. November 25, 2013)
Bret Stephens: Climate Prophets and Profiteers (Bret Stephens. Opinion, The Wall Street Journal, February 17, 2014)
Richard McNider and John Christy: Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change (Richard McNider and John Christy. Opinion, The Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2014)
The Coming Paradigm Shift on Climate (S. Fred Singer. American Thinker, March 27, 2014)
Climate Forecast: Muting the Alarm (Matt Ridley. Opinion, The Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2014)
The "Pause" in Global Warming: Climate Policy Implications (Ross McKitrick. Professor of Economics, University of Guelph. May 2014, .pdf)
Australia Repeals Carbon Tax (By Rob Taylor and Rhiannon Hoyle. Asia News, The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2014)
Climate Fears and Finance (By the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP). July 22, 2014, .pdf)
Climate Science Does Not Support IPCC Conclusions (S. Fred Singer. American Thinker, August 15, 2014)
Climate Science Is Not Settled (By Steven E. Koonin. The Wall Street Journal, September 19, 2014)
Late Twentieth-Century Warming and Variations in Cloud Cover (John McLean. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (ACS) Vol.4 No.4, October 2014)


Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Monitoring
An Honest Climate Debate (Exposing the truth about the Man-Made Climate Change theory)
Anthropogenic Global Warming - Fact or Hoax? (A Middlebury Community Network editorial by James A. Peden)
Australian Climate Madness
Bishop Hill blog (A.W. Montford)
 - The Hockey Stick Illusion (A.W. Montford, January 15, 2010)
 - Las Investigaciones del Climategate (A.W. Montford, GWPF Reports, 14 de Septiembre 2010)
 - Hiding the Decline (A.W. Montford, October 24, 2012)
Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations (Notes on Climate Change and Global Warming)
Bøjrn Lomborg (The Skeptical Environmentalist)
Brian Sussman (Right Thinking from the Left Coast)
Burt Rutan on Climate Change
C3 Headlines (Climate Cycle Changes)
Calder's Updates: Climate Change (Nigel Calder)
Carlin Economics and Science (Dr. Alan Carlin, Ph.D. in Economics, B.S. in Physics)
 - Why a Copernican Revolution Is Needed in Climate Change Research (December 28, 2011)
Cato Institute - Global Warming
 - Global Science Report (Cato@Liberty - Weekly)
 - Energy and Environment (Cato@Liberty - Monthly)
Christopher Booker's comment, columns and opinion (Telegraph.co.uk)
Climate (Rick Werme)
Climate Audit (Steve McIntyre)
Climate Change (by Erl Happ and Carl Wolk)
Climate Change 101
Climate Change Dispatch (Because the debate is NOT over)
Climate Change Reconsidered (Website of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change - NIPCC)
 - Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate (April 2008)
 - Climate Change Reconsidered (Report, 2 June 2009)
 - Interim Report from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (25 August 2011)
 - Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science (17 September 2013)
 - Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts (31 March 2014)
ClimateClips (Video clips with basic knowledge and news)
Climate Data Information (Ron Manley and Pat Reynolds)
Climate Dialogue (Exploring different views on climate change)
Climate Etc. (Dr. Judith Curry)
Climate4you (Ole Humlum)
Climategate (Anthropogenic Global Warming, history's biggest scam)
Climate Physics
Climate Realists (Real explanations as to what has made our climate change)
 - My Position on Climate Change, By Hendrik Tennekes (July 15 '08)
Climate Reason (The Little Ice Age Thermometers - A Study of Climatic Variability from 1660-2009)
Climate Review (Home of the movie "Church of Global Warming", James Follett, 1hr. - Free)
ClimateSanity (Tom Moriarty)
Climate Science (Roger Pielke Sr.) [Blog retired on November 13, 2012]
Climate Skeptic (Warren Meyer)
Clive Best
 - Evidence for Negative Water Feedback (May 23, 2012)
co2 (Antón Uriarte, San Sebastián, Gipuzkoa, España)
CO2 and the 'Greenhouse Effect' Doom (by Tom V. Segalstad)
Co2 Insanity (the insanity surrounding Anthropogenic Global Warming)
CO2 Science (Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Sherwood B. Idso, President)
 - Carbon Dioxide and Earth's Future: Pursuing the Prudent Path
 - Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming
 - Cosmic Rays vs. CO2: The Battle for Climate Change Primacy
Cold Planet (Learning about and Preparing for a Little Ice Age)
Coleman's Corner: DAILY BLOG | john coleman global warming skeptic
Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker)
 - Climate Depot (Marc Morano)
 - Climate Hustle (The global warming shakedown. Documentary Film)
Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), Marlo Lewis, Jr. (Senior Fellow)
 - The Environmental Source, Second Edition (2008, HTML and .pdf)
conscious (Protecting freedom by understanding climate, The UN IPCC Exposed. Malcolm Roberts, V. Gray, J. McLean)
Consulting Geologist (Timothy Casey B.Sc.)
 - Most Misquoted and Most Misunderstood Science Papers in the Public Domain (Fourier, Tyndall, Burguess, Gerlach)
Curious Anomalies in Climate Science
Daniel B. Botkin (Reflections of a renegade naturalist)
DenialDepot (Blog Science for Real People)
Die Klimazwiebel (Eduardo Zorita and Hans von Storch)
Don J. Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus (Department of Geology, Western Washington University)
 - Research: Global climate change, global warming/cooling
Dr. Tim Ball (A Different Perspective)
Ecotretas
Energy Probe (Environmental Sustainability)
 - Articles by Lawrence Solomon
 - Global Cooling
Environmental Policy (Examiner.com)
 - San Francisco Environmental Policy Examiner (Thomas Fuller. Blog retired on November 6, 2010)
 - Seminole County Environmental News Examiner (Kirk Myers)
   - New research into greenhouse effect challenges theory of man-made global warming (Dr. F. Miskolczi, Feb. 9 '10)
   - Former NASA scientist defends theory refuting global warming doctrine (Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, Feb. 12 '10)
Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science (The origins and impacts of Global Warming Alarmism, Bernie Lewin)
Errors in IPCC climate science (Warwick Hughes, Douglas Hoyt)
Friends of Science (Providing Insight into Global Warming)
 - Myths / Facts (Common Misconceptions About Global Warming)
Geokov (A free web application providing mapping functionality and educational resources)
George C. Marshall Institute - Climate Science
 - Are Human Activities Causing Global Warming? by Dr. Sallie Baliunas, January 1, 1995
 - The Truth About Greenhouse Gases by Dr. William Happer, May 23, 2011
Global Temperature Report (UAHuntsville Earth System Science Center)
Global Warming.org (May Cooler Heads Prevail)
Global Warming - Introduction (West Virginia Plant Fossils)
 - Global Warming: A closer look at the numbers
 - Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective
Global Warming Issues (Dr. John McLean)
 - Our ENSO - temperature paper of 2009 and the aftermath (July 2009)
Global Warming Science (Applied Information Systems - AppInSys, Alan Cheetham)
 - AIS Climate Data Visualizer (Global Historical Climate Network temperature data graphing - from NOAA, HadCRU)
Global Warming Solved (New research on man-made global warming theory, Dr. Ronan Connolly)
 - Summary: "Urbanization bias" - Papers 1-3
Heretical Thoughts About Science And Society (Edge: Freeman Dyson, Aug. 8 '07)
Hide the decline (Frank Lansner and Nicolai Skjoldby)
Ice Age Now (Robert W. Felix)
Informath (Douglas J. Keenan)
Institute for Energy Research (IER)
International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP)
 - The Blogosphere (Dr. Joseph D'Aleo, Executive Director)
International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC) (Tom Harris, Executive Director)
Is there global cooling? (Geoff Pohanka)
James Delingpole's comment, columns and opinion (Breitbart London)
Jennifer Marohasy / Blog (Australian Environment Foundation)
John R. Christy Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH)
JoNova - The Skeptics Handbook
 - Climate Money: The Climate Industry: $79 billion so far - trillions to come (SPPI, July 21, 2009)
JunkScience.com (All the Junk That's Fit to Debunk)
 - The Real Inconvenient Truth: Greenhouse, global warming and some facts
Knowledge Drift; The Science of Human Error (How bad knowledge contaminates good data, David M. Hoffer)
Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist's Journey to Climate Skepticism (by Jim Steele)
landshape.org (Niche Modeling) (The Power of Numeracy)
Leif Svalgaard's Research Page (Stanford University)
MasterResource (A free-market energy blog)
Michael Crichton - The Official Site: Videos
 - State of Fear - Why Politicized Science is Dangerous
Minnesotans for Global Warming (M4GW)
 - Hide the Decline - Climategate (Musical Video, YouTube)
New Zealand Climate Change (Climate Change Questions)
New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (Commonsense about Climate Change)
Nicola Scafetta, PhD (Assistant Adjunct Professor, Duke University)
Nicolas Nierenberg (issues related to Dr. Naomi Oreskes and Dr. William Nierenberg)
No Cap and Trade (Facts, not Fiction on Climate Change)
 - Michael Mann Controversy (Musical Videos)
NOconsensus.org (No Scientific Consensus on Global Warming. Donna Laframboise, Toronto, Canada)
 - No Frakking Consensus (Climate skepticism is free speech. Alternative points-of-view deserve to be heard)
   - A Book is Born: The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World's Top Climate Expert (an IPCC Exposé)
Not A Lot Of People Know That (Paul Homewood)
Number Watch (The guide to wrong numbers in science, media and politics. John Brignell)
Omnologos (The Unbearable Nakedness of Climate Change. Maurizio Morabito)
P Gosselin - NoTricksZone (Climate News from Germany in English. Pierre Gosselin)
Professor Robert (Bob) M. Carter Biography (Author of Climate: the Counter Consensus)
 - Ten Facts about Climate Change They Don't Want You to Know
Quadrant Online - Doomed Planet
 - The Futile Quest for Climate Control (by Prof. Robert M. Carter, November 1, 2008)
 - Climate Modelling Nonsense (by Dr. John Reid, October 1, 2009)
 - Global warming: 10 little facts (by Prof. Robert M. Carter, March 14, 2011)
 - Refuting the myths of climate change (by Des Moore & Tom Quirk, July 25, 2013)
Real Science (Steven Goddard)
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog
Ross McKitrick (Annotated Index to Publications and Papers)
 - Independent Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (ISPM) (Ross McKitrick, Editor, 2007)
 - Critical Topics in Global Warming (Fraser Institute, Ross McKitrick, Editor, 2009)
Roy Spencer, Ph. D. (Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)
 - Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures
Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI)
 - 35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore's movie (Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, 19 October 2007)
 - Three Essays on Climate Models (Dr. Henk Tennekes, 30 January 2009)
 - Three Speeches by Michael Crichton (Michael Crichton, 11 December 2009)
 - Two Dead Elephants in Parliament (Malcolm Roberts, 12 March 2010)
 - Response to John Abraham (Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, 12 July 2010)
 - Global Cooling (Dr. Gerrit J. van der Lingen, 27 February 2014)
ScienceBits (A random walk in science. Prof. Nir J. Shaviv, Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Science Speak (Dr. David Evans, Joanne Nova. Perth, Western Australia)
 - The Notch-Delay Solar Theory (New Solar climate model: natural influences can explain the recent global warming)
   - BIG NEWS VIII: New solar theory predicts imminent global cooling
Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Shub Niggurath Climate
Solar Chords (Climate Change Explained, Frederick Bailey)
Solar Cycle 25 (a switch to a much cooler climate)
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report (Jan Alvestad)
Steve Goreham - Climatism (Speaker, author, environmental researcher)
Syun-Ichi Akasofu - Notes on Climate Change
Talking About the Weather (by Harold Ambler)
Tallbloke's Talkshop (Cutting edge science you can dice with)
The Air Vent (by Jeff Id. Closed on January 21, 2011)
The Blackboard (by Lucia)
The Carbon Sense Coalition
The Climate Science Coalition of America (CSCA) (Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D., Chairman)
The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) (Director: Dr Benny Peiser)
 - Andrew Montford: The Climategate Inquiries (A.W. Montford, GWPF Reports, 14 September 2010)
 - Andrew Montford: Las Investigaciones del Climategate (A.W. Montford, GWPF Reports, 14 de Septiembre 2010)
 - Hal Lewis: My Resignation From The American Physical Society (IPPC News, 6 October 2010)
 - Nicola Scafetta: The Theory Is Very Simple (The Observatory, 29 May 2012)
 - New Report: Global Temperature Standstill Is Real (Dr. David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 15 March 2013)
 - Scientists Turn Sceptical As Climate Predictions Are In Trouble (David Rose, Mail on Sunday, 17 March 2013)
 - Consensus? What Consensus? (A.W. Montford, September 2, 2013)
 - Fraud, bias and public relations - The 97% 'consensus' and its critics (Andrew Montford, September 8, 2014)
The Great Global Warming Swindle (A Documentary by Martin Durkin, Produced by WAGTV)
The Heartland Institute
 - Environment & Climate News
 - Global Warming Facts
 - climatewiki.org (Encyclopedia of climate change)
 - Fakegate (Another Global Warming Scandal)
The Hockey Schtick (The Travesty of Global Cooling - 12 Years & Counting)
The Inconvenient Skeptic (John Kehr)
 - The Inconvenient Skeptic: The Comprehensive Guide to the Earth's Climate (John Kehr, 2011)
The IPCC Report (Paul Matthews)
The Lavoisier Group (Australia)
The Next Grand Minimum (Russell Steele)
The Resilient Earth (Science, Global Warming and the Fate of Humanity) (Book. Doug L. Hoffman & Allen Simmons, 2008)
The Right Climate Stuff (NASA scientists review climate change data)
The View From Here (Hilary Ostrov, Vancouver, Canada)
 - AccessIPCC (IPCC's 4th Assessment Report - Annotated)
The Virtual Philosophy Club (Ira Glickstein)
Topher.com.au (Topher - Actor, Writer/Director, Activist)
 - 50 to 1 Video Project (It's 50 times more expensive to STOP climate change than it is to ADAPT to it)
 - Is CO2 mitigation cost-effective? (.pdf. Christopher Monckton of Brenchley)
Watts Up With That? (by Anthony Watts)
 - Atmosphere Reference Pages (Atmosphere current graphs and imagery)
 - ENSO (El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation) Page (Ocean temperature and oscillation patterns)
 - Global Sea Ice Reference Page (Arctic and Antarctic current graphs and imagery)
 - Global Temperature Page (Global Temperature current graphs and imagery)
 - Ocean Reference Page (Ocean graphs and imagery)
 - Solar Images and Data Page
 - surfacestations.org (Climate stations physical site survey data)
Weather Action (by Piers Corbyn, Astrophysicist, Meteorologist)
WeatherBell (Meteorological consulting, Joe Bastardi, Dr. Joseph D'Aleo, Dr. Ryan Maue)
 - Weather Maps
 - Global Temperature Anomalies
 - Global Tropical Cyclone Activity - Dr. Ryan N. Maue
 - WeatherBell Press
William M. Briggs, Statistician (Adjunct Professor of Statistical Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York)
 - Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die (13 June 2013)
Wood for Trees (Software tools for analysis and graphing of time series data. Paul Clark)
World Climate Report (Chief Editor: Patrick J. Michaels)


Armagh Observatory Meteorology Databank (United Kingdom)
California Regional Weather Server (CRWS) - Jet Stream Map Menu
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) (Florida State University)
Centre for Ocean and Ice (COI) (Danish Meteorological Institute)
Centre for Ice and Climate (University of Copenhagen)
Climate Change (NASA)
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (NOAA)
Climate Reanalyzer (Sean Birkel. The University of Maine.)
Climatic Research Unit (CRU) (University of East Anglia, UK)
Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System Information and Data (CERES) (NASA)
Cooperative Institute for Satellite Studies (CIMSS) (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
 - Geostationary Image Browser (Flash/Java Animations)
 - Saharan Air Layer (SAL) - Split Window - Meteosat-9
Daily AMSR2 sea ice maps: Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent (University of Bremen, Germany)
Daily Updated Time series of Arctic sea ice area and extent derived from SSMI data provided by NERSC (Arctic ROOS)
Data of Sea Ice Extent [AMSR-E in the Arctic Ocean] (IARC-JAXA)
Distributed Information Services for Climate and Ocean Products and Visualizations for Earth Research (DISCOVER)
 - Daily Earth Temperatures from Satellites (AMSU-A Temperatures, University of Alabama in Huntstville - UAH)
Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA)
 - Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division
   - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
 - Earth System Research Laboratory: Physical Sciences Division
ECMWF | Global medium-range numerical weather prediction - Long range forecasts (Public charts):
   2m temperature, Rain, Mean sea level pressure, Sea surface temperature (SST Anomaly)
El Niño: online meteorology guide (WW2010, University of Illinois)
El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere (The National Academies)
El Niño Modoki (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology - JAMSTEC)
Environment Canada (Weather and meteorological information)
ESA - CryoSat (measuring the thickness of ice sheets and floating ice, launched 8 April 2010)
Frequently Asked Questions About the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (NOAA Physical Oceanography Division)
GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
Global Warming (NASA Worldbook)
Global Warming Facts, Causes, Effects, Solutions (National Geographic)
Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) Project (JAXA, NIES, MOE. Japan)
International Space Environment Service (ISES)
Introduction to Rossby waves (Dr. Paolo Cipollini. National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK)
Introduction to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) (Dr. Adrian Matthews. University of East Anglia, UK)
IPCC Reports - Climate Change (UNEP)
 - Vital Climate Graphics - Update 2005 (UNEP/GRID-Arendal)
JASMES Climate - Sea Ice Trends (Arctic/Antarctic, JAXA)
JetStream - An Online School for Weather (National Weather Service)
Kelvin Waves (El Niño and La Niña for the U.S. Navy)
KNMI Climate Explorer (Web application for statistical analysis of climate data)
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) (University of Colorado at Boulder)
 - LASP Interactive Solar Irradiance Data Center (LISIRD)
MetEd (Meteorology Education & Trainning - Free - Con algunos módulos también en Castellano)
 - Introduction to Tropical Meteorology (2nd Edition)
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), State of the Climate, Extremes (NOAA)
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
 - Sea Ice Index (Artic/Antartic, Monthly/Daily)
National Weather Service - Weather Prediction Center (WPC) (NOAA-NWS)
National Weather Service - Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA-NWS)
NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (Reynolds OI.v2)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Ian Bell, Martin Visbeck, Columbia University)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (David B. Stephenson, Exeter University)
Observing the Earth - Understanding Our Planet (European Space Agency - ESA)
Ocean Indicators (El Niño Bulletin, Mean Sea Level - AVISO)
Ocean Motion and Surface Currents (NASA)
Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (OOPC) (UNESCO)
Ocean Surface Topography from Space (NASA-JPL, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason)
Ocean World (Texas A&M University)
Ozone Hole Watch: Latest status of Arctic & Antarctic ozone (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)
PALEOMAP Project (Earth & Climate History, Christopher R. Scotese)
Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) (Global data bank for long term sea level change information)
Polar Science Center (Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), University of Washington)
Polar Sea Ice Cap and Snow - Cryosphere Today, Global Sea Ice Area (University of Illinois)
Remote Sensing Systems (REMSS) (Research-quality geophysical data from Satellite Microwave Sensors)
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS) University of Miami
 - Ocean Surface Currents (CIMAS)
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
Securing Our Environment (European Space Agency - ESA)
Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) (Royal Observatory of Belgium)
Solar Physics (Marshall Space Flight Center)
State of the Climate (NOAA National Climatic Data Center - NCDC)
Solar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) (Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder)
State of the ocean climate (NOAA)
The Second Law of Thermodynamics (Frank L. Lambert, Professor Emeritus, Occidental College, Los Angeles)
The Sun and the Earth's Climate (Sami K. Solanki, Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research)
The Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) (Stanford University / NASA)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Project (Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array, NOAA)
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (NASA - JAXA)
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (Independent Statistics and Analysis)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (United Nations)



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