Observatorio ARVAL

Climate Change ("Global Warming")?

The cyclic nature of Earth's climate

"Weather is climate. More specifically, aggregations of weather are climate. Means, averages, and distributions of daily weather comprise climate".
See Actually, Weather Is Climate (William M. Briggs, Statistician & Consultant. Jan. 22, '10)

Climate is long-range weather, it is a description of the average or prevailing weather in each season along the years. Climate varies widely among different regions on Earth. Also, in some regions it varies more or less widely with the seasons.

Predicting the weather for a particular region, even for a few days in advance, is one of the most complex problems in science. One basis for these predictions is that weather changes slowly, so tomorrow's weather will be very similar to today's weather and so on (but with less certainty the further we go on). Also, that weather tends to repeat seasonally, for each region, changing slowly with the years.

The most obvious local cycle in the weather pattern is diurnal, basically controlled by the Sun. The warmest time of the day is usually after noon, after receiving the highest energy influx. The coldest is usually before dawn, after cooling all night.

The second cycle in importance is yearly, also controlled by the amount of energy received from the Sun. The warmest days occur in the summer and the coldest in the winter, when one hemisphere is tilted towards the Sun while the other is tilted away. The axis of the Earth is tilted 23.5° in respect to its orbital plane.

Then there is the cycle of activity of the Sun itself, some 11 years, but not very constant in length or intensity. Some of the effects of the Solar activity on the Earth's atmosphere are now just beginning to be studied. The reconstructions of ancient climates reveal a close correlation between Solar activity and temperatures on Earth. The correlation between Solar activity plus oceanic heat transport and temperatures is much more closer than the correlation between the abundance of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and temperatures.
Presently, at the beginning of 2010, we are near a minimum of the Solar cycle (December 2008) that was "late to arrive", the next Solar maximum is now expected to occur in May 2013.
See Solar Cycle Progression and Prediction Center (NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center)

"The Maunder Minimum: Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (JPEG image, 38 Kb). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research".
See The Sunspot Cycle (Solar Physics, Marshall Space Flight Center)

The Croll-Milankovitch Cycles:

"Variations in the intensity and timing of heat from the Sun are the most likely cause of glacial/interglacial cycles. This variability is partially driven by changes in the Sun's output, but is affected more strongly by variations in Earth's orbit."

"There are three major components of Earth's orbit about the Sun that contribute to changes in our climate. These are, the Precession of the Equinoxes, and changes in Axial Obliquity and Orbital Eccentricity.
The full cycle of equinox precession takes 25,800 years to complete. Presently, Earth is closest to the Sun in January and farther away in July.
Presently Earth's tilt is 23.5°, but the 41,000 year cycle varies from 22.1° to 24.5°.
Earth's orbit goes from measurably elliptical to nearly circular in a cycle that takes around 100,000 years."

"Individually, each of the three cycles affect insolation patterns. When taken together, they can partially cancel or reinforce each other in complicated ways."

See The Resilient Earth, Chapter 9, Variations In Earth's Orbit (.pdf Downloadable Book. Doug L. Hoffman & Allen Simmons, 2008 - Free)

El Niño and La Niña are natural oscillations of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific that have important consequences for weather around the globe. Current science can detect them, but not predict them in the long term.
They are part of a phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a continual but irregular cycle (of about 3 to 7 years) of shifts in ocean and atmospheric conditions that affect the global climate.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to La Niña, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
Among these consequences is increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a natural long-term fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean. The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years.
Even more irregular is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) a large-scale mode of natural climate variability having large impacts on weather and climate in the North Atlantic region and surrounding continents.
Then there are the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), all contributing to natural global climate variability.

Negative values of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) represent the cold ENSO phase (La Niña), while positive values of the MEI represent the warm phase (El Niño). See ESRL-PSD: Multivariate ENSO Index (NOAA).

El Niño strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

"El Niño events release heat from the tropical Pacific, and through ocean currents and changes in atmospheric circulation, they raise surface temperatures outside of the tropical Pacific."

"During La Niña events, the tropical Pacific releases less heat than normal, and global temperatures decline."

"La Niña events are a vital portion of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) coupled ocean-atmosphere process. La Niña events recharge the heat released from the tropical Pacific during the El Niño."

"Note that most La Niña events do not fully recharge the heat released by the El Niño events."

"During a La Niña event, tropical Pacific trade winds rise above normal levels. The increase in trade winds reduces cloud cover. Reduced cloud cover allows more Downward Shortwave Radiation (visible light) to warm the tropical Pacific."

"Contrary to the beliefs of anthropogenic warming proponents the 1997/98 El Niño was NOT fueled by a long-term accumulation of heat from manmade greenhouse gases.
The 1997/98 El Niño was strong enough to temporarily raise Global Lower Troposphere Temperature anomalies ~0.7° C."

"The La Niña event of 1973/74/75/76 provided the tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content necessary for the increase in strength and frequency of El Niño events from 1976 to 1995. The 1995/96 La Niña furnished the Ocean Heat Content that served as fuel for the 1997/98 El Niño. And the 1998/99/00/01 La Niña recharged the tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content after the 1997/98 El Niño, returning it to the new higher level established by the La Niña of 1995/96."

Ver Tisdale on the importance of El Nino's little sister - recharging ocean heat content (Bob Tisdale, Feb. 13 '10, Watts Up With That).

According to Dr. Roy Spencer, "Global warming" refers to the global-average temperature increase that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that mankind is responsible for that warming. This website describes evidence from my group's government-funded research that suggests global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity's greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution.

How atmospheric processes like clouds and precipitation systems respond to warming is critical, as they are either amplifying the warming, or reducing it. This website currently concentrates on the response of clouds to warming, an issue which I am now convinced the scientific community has totally misinterpreted when they have measured natural, year-to-year fluctuations in the climate system. As a result of that confusion, they have the mistaken belief that climate sensitivity is high, when in fact the satellite evidence suggests climate sensitivity is low.

See Global Warming: Natural or Manmade?
(Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)

According to Dr. Roy Spencer, "most climate change might well be the result of .... the climate system itself!"
Because small, chaotic fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems can cause small changes in global average cloudiness, this is all that is necessary to cause climate change.

The less you know about how the climate system works, the more fragile the climate system looks to you.
If you simply assert that there are no natural causes of climate change, you will conclude that our climate system is precariously balanced on a knife edge.

A mostly-natural source of global warming is also consistent with mounting observational evidence that the climate system is much less sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions than the IPCC's climate models simulate.

See Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)

Science has a general model for the prevailing seasonal winds, atmospheric pressure and humidity. Temperatures have been of much interest lately, as some scientists have detected an accelerated 'global warming' trend, while others have detected more recently a significant slowing since 1980, and even a reversal of this trend since 2002 to -2° C (-3.6° F) per century.
See Don Easterbrook’s AGU paper on potential global cooling (Watts Up With That?, December 29 '08)

The term 'global' should mean that every region shows the same trend.
The term 'global temperature' should be well defined and the relevant data made public.
The alleged atmospheric 'greenhouse effect' should be measured, and explained within the framework of physics in a way that does not violate the second law of thermodynamics.

The second law is a statement about heat, not about energy.
The relevant quantity is the "net heat flow", which, of course, is the sum of the upward and the downward heat flow within a fixed system, here the atmospheric system. It is inadmissible to apply the second law for the upward and downward heat separately redefining the thermodynamic system on the fly. [see G. Gerlich, below]
See The Second Law of Thermodynamics (Frank L. Lambert, Professor Emeritus, Occidental College, Los Angeles)

Much attention has been given to the possible effect of the increase of 'heat retention gases' in our atmosphere; the alleged atmospheric 'greenhouse effect', and its possible cause. There are a number of geologists and other Earth-science researchers that have concluded that the atmospheric 'greenhouse effect' is real and its increase has to be man-made; by CO₂ in particular, product of the recent industrial proliferation and its fossil-fuel energy demands.

But carbon dioxide is plant food, they use it to produce their energy and store it in their bodies. All animals produce it when they breathe, it is present in the interior of the Earth and surfaces during volcanic eruptions. The main store of available CO₂ is in the oceans, which give it off into the atmosphere when the temperature rises.

Other Earth-scientists have concluded that because, long before today's industrial age, there have been elevated levels of temperatures and 'heat retention gases' in our atmosphere repeating in a cyclical fashion, the Earth must now be doing what it always has done; warming and then cooling, the polar ice caps advancing and then retreating cyclically under the influence of the Sun, Earth's orbit and the ocean currents. They point out to the most recent global warming period around the middle ages when the climate warmed to include northern Europe having mild winters and very warm summers: the "Medieval Warm Period", from approximately A.D. 1000 to A.D. 1350. Then the Earth's climate was in a cool period from A.D. 1400 to about A.D. 1860, named the "Little Ice Age".
The "Holocene Maximum" was the warmest period in human history, from some 7,500 to some 4,000 years ago. Then the Earth cooled again till around year 1000.

Beginning about 18,000 years ago the Earth started warming up. Some 8,000 years ago the bridge between Asia and North America was submerged. During the past 750,000 years of Earth's history, Ice Ages have occurred at regular intervals, of approximately 100,000 years each.

See Global warming is all in the timescales (Thomas Fuller, SF Environmental Policy Examiner, Jul 22 '09)

See Shellfish could supplant tree-ring climate data (Richard A. Lovett, Nature News, Mar 8 '10)

See When the IPCC 'disappeared' the Medieval Warm Period (Frank Lansner, Watts Up With That?, Mar 10 '10)

"There appears to be a widespread belief that the comparatively high temperature produced within a closed space covered with glass, and exposed to solar radiation, results from a transformation of wave-length, that is, that the heat waves from the sun, which are able to penetrate the glass, fall upon the walls of the enclosure and raise its temperature: the heat energy is re-emitted by the walls in the form of much longer waves, which are unable to penetrate the glass, the greenhouse acting as a radiation trap."

"It appeared much more probable that the part played by the glass was the prevention of the escape of the warm air heated by the ground within the enclosure."

"To test the matter I constructed two enclosures of dead black cardboard, one covered with a glass plate, the other with a plate of rock-salt of equal thickness. The bulb of a thermometer was inserted in each enclosure and the whole packed in cotton, with the exception of the transparent plates which were exposed."

"When exposed to sunlight the temperature rose gradually to 65°C., the enclosure covered with the salt plate keeping a little ahead of the other, owing to the fact that it transmitted the longer waves from the sun, which were stopped by the glass. In order to eliminate this action the sunlight was first passed through a glass plate. There was now scarcely a difference of one degree between the temperatures of the two enclosures. The maximum temperature reached was about 55°C. From what we know about the distribution of energy in the spectrum of the radiation emitted by a body at 55°C, it is clear that the rock-salt plate is capable of transmitting practically all of it, while the glass plate stops it entirely.
This shows us that the loss of temperature of the ground by radiation is very small in comparison to the loss by convection."

"It seems to me very doubtful if the atmosphere is warmed to any great extent by absorbing the radiation from the ground, even under the most favourable conditions."

See Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse
(Professor R. W. Wood, Philosophical Magazine, 1909. Vol. 17, pp. 319-320) [in tech-archive.net]

The Earth seems to be always oscillating between a cooling period and a warming period. This would indicate that the climate could be an oscillator regulated by both negative and positive feedbacks, cycling between two states.

See New geologic evidence of past periods of oscillating, abrupt warming, and cooling (Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Watts Up With That, November 10 '09)

There is some man-made effect taking part in the whole CO₂ abundance (Mauna Loa 387.35 ppm in 2009 + ~1.72 ppm per year globally). But CO₂ would be just a part of the alleged driving force in the present warming phase of the climate oscillation, most would be from H₂O (clouds and water vapor). [see G. Gerlich, below]

The Earth's atmosphere, in terms of mass percent abundance, is: Nitrogen (N₂) 75.52%, Oxigen (O₂) 23.14%, Argon (Ar) 1.28%, Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) 0.06%. (other even smaller components are disregarded) [see G. Gerlich, below]

The alleged "greenhouse effect" would be crucial to the survival of life on Earth, because without it our present global average temperature of some 15° C (59° F) would be instead of some -18° C (-0.4° F). [falsified by G. Gerlich, below]

Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, a former contract researcher for NASA's Langley Research Center, discovered a self-regulating mechanism, or "constant", that keeps Earth's greenhouse gases in equilibrium. According to his equilibrium theory, this constant cannot be altered by increases in emissions of CO2 or other atmospheric gases such as methane.

"The only thing my theory is telling us is that the nature of the greenhouse effect is such, that under the conditions we have here on Earth, the atmosphere will maximize its cooling by keeping its infrared optical depth - or infrared absorption - at a preferred critical value".

"With relatively simple computations using NOAA's annual mean temperature, H20 and CO2 time series, I have shown that in the last 61 years, despite a 30 percent increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the cumulative atmospheric absorption of all greenhouse gases has not been changed and has remained constant. There is no runaway greenhouse effect."

Ver New research into greenhouse effect challenges theory of man-made global warming (Dr. F. Miskolczi, Feb. 9 '10),
Former NASA scientist defends theory refuting global warming doctrine (Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, February 12 '10)
(Kirk Myers, Seminole County Environmental News Examiner)

Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO₂ Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics
Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner, January 6, 2009

"The atmospheric greenhouse effect, an idea that many authors trace back to the traditional works of Fourier (1824), Tyndall (1861), and Arrhenius (1896), and which is still supported in global climatology, essentially describes a fictitious mechanism, in which a planetary atmosphere acts as a heat pump driven by an environment that is radiatively interacting with but radiatively equilibrated to the atmospheric system.
According to the second law of thermodynamics, such a planetary machine can never exist. Nevertheless, in almost all texts of global climatology and in a widespread secondary literature, it is taken for granted that such a mechanism is real and stands on a firm scientific foundation."

"In this paper, the popular conjecture is analyzed and the underlying physical principles are clarified.
By showing that
(a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects,
(b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet,
(c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33° C is a meaningless number calculated wrongly,
(d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately,
(e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical,
(f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero,
the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified."

It is not the "trapped infrared radiation" that explains the warming phenomenon in a real greenhouse, but the suppression of the trapped air renovation.
Gerlich and Tscheuschner explain that the Earth's atmosphere does not function in the same way, nor does it function in the way global-warming alarmists describe as "transparent for visible light but opaque for infrared radiation".

"A comparison of volume percents and mass percents for CO₂ shows that the current mass concentration, which is the physically relevant concentration, is approximately 0.06% and not the often quoted 0.03%."

"Global climatologists claim that the Earth's natural greenhouse effect keeps the Earth 33° C warmer than it would be without the trace gases in the atmosphere. About 80 percent of this warming is attributed to water vapor and 20 percent to the 0.03 volume percent CO₂. If such an extreme effect existed, it would show up even in a laboratory experiment involving concentrated CO₂ as a thermal conductivity anomaly. It would manifest itself as a new kind of 'superinsulation' violating the conventional heat conduction equation. However, for CO₂ such anomalous heat transport properties never have been observed.
Therefore, in this paper, the popular greenhouse ideas entertained by the global climatology community are reconsidered within the limits of theoretical and experimental physics."

From Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO₂ Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics
(.pdf, 1.5 MB, Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner, Version 4.0, January 6, 2009)
[International Journal of Modern Physics B (IJMPB) 23:275-364, 2009]

See Politics and Greenhouse Gases (John McLaughlin, American Thinker, Novenber 27, 2009)

See The Science (Fiction) of the Greenhouse Effect (Rebecca Terrell, Climate Realists, January 27, 2010)

The 1997 Conference on the World Climate Research Programme to the Third Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change concluded that the global capacity to observe the Earth's climate system is inadequate and is deteriorating worldwide: "Without action to reverse this decline and develop the Global Climate Observation System, the ability to characterize climate change and variations over the next 25 years will be even less than during the past quarter century".

See Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems (1999) (Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate)
See surfacestations.org (Climate stations physical site survey data)

There has clearly been some warming in recent decades, most notably 1979 to 1998. However the global surface station based data is seriously compromised by major station dropout. There has been a clear bias towards removing higher elevation, higher latitude and rural stations. The data suffers contamination by urbanization and other local factors such as land-use/land-cover changes, and improper sitting. There is missing data and uncertainties in ocean temperatures. These factors all lead to overestimation of temperatures.

See A U.S. ClimateGate? (Joseph D'Aleo, Jan. 17 '10)
See Climategate: CRU Was But the Tip of the Iceberg (Marc Sheppard, American Thinker, Jan. 22 '10)
See Global Warming: The Other Side (Part 4) (Joseph D'Aleo, E. Michael Smith, Video, John Coleman, KUSI - News, Weather and Sports - San Diego, CA)
See Global Warming: The Other Side (Full, unedited interview) (Joseph D'Aleo, Video, John Coleman, KUSI - News, Weather and Sports - San Diego, CA)

"In 1988 the scientist James Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) announced to Congress (USA) and the world, "Global warming has begun". He went on to report that, at least to his satisfaction, he had seen the "signal" in the climate noise and that the earth was destined for global warming, perhaps in the form of a runaway greenhouse effect. Hansen later revised his remarks, but his statement remained the starting point of widespread concerns over global warming. That same year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed as a joint program of the United Nations Environmental Program, the World Meteorological Organization, and the International Congress of Scientific Unions. It has a mandate to prepare regular assessments of what is known and what should be done about anthropogenic climate change."

See Updating the Climate Science (Makiko Sato & James Hansen, Columbia University)
See Climate Definition, Synonyms (Answers.com)

Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen "embarrassed NASA". He violated NASA's official agency position on climate forecasting ("we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind's effect on it"). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress. [January 15, 2009]

Theon declared: "Climate models are useless".

See Watts Up With That? (January 27, 2009)

James Hansen is the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) (Study of global climate change).

Sea level trends: Southern Ocean versus global ocean

Sea level trends of the world's oceans are shown in figure a.
The two curves represent the overall sea level variations averaged within the Southern Ocean south of 40° S and global ocean, respectively. The most remarkable feature is a large regional difference in sea level trend. The North Pacific and equatorial Pacific exhibit the most spectacular east-west seesaw pattern, with strong positive trends in the western side and strong negative trends in the eastern side. The Atlantic Ocean shows the most homogeneous field and is associated with weak positive trends in general, while in the Indian Ocean negative trends are dominant, except for positive trends in the Indonesian throughflow region and west of Australia.
The Southern Ocean south of 40° S shows noticeable positive trends in most places, with one notable exception in the Pacific Antarctic Basin, where there is a broad region of strong negative trends.

The Southern Ocean experienced a sharp rise in sea level during the 1997-1998 ENSO period (see figure b).
A similar sea level rise is also observed for the global ocean, although the amplitude there is only half that of the Southern Ocean.
Over the 1993-2000 period, the mean sea level trend of the Southern Ocean is estimated at 2.34 ± 0.34 mm/yr, compared to 1.21 ± 0.15 mm/yr for the global ocean. The latter value is close to the lower bound of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) global trend range over the last century (1-2 mm/yr) and is also not significantly different from the estimate of Cazenave et al. [1998] over the period 1993-mid 1997 (1.3 ± 0.15 mm/yr).
Globally, no dramatic sea level rising trend resembling the exponential concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is observed during the past century.

See Interannual sea level variability in the Southern Ocean within the context of global climate change (NASA-JPL, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason)

(a) Map showing sea level trends (mm/yr) calculated at each T/P crossover point over the period 1993-2000. Before the trend calculation, mean seasonal variations were eliminated from the monthly time series at each data point and then low-pass filtered using a Gaussian filter with a cut-off at six months.
(b) Mean sea level variations (mm) averaged for the whole Southern Ocean south of 40° S (green) and for the entire global ocean (red). Area-dependent weights were applied during the averaging process.

See Interannual sea level variability in the Southern Ocean within the context of global climate change (Figure 2) (NASA-JPL, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason)

This negates a positive CO₂ feedback effect on the sea level trends, justifying skepticism.

"IPCC predicts rapid, exponential CO2 growth that is not occurring".
"The 29-year (since 1980) global warming trend is just 2.5 °F (1.5 °C) per century".

"The IPCC assume CO2 concentration will rise exponentially from today's 385 parts per million to reach 730 to 1,020 ppm, central estimate 836 ppm, by 2100". "However, for seven years, CO2 concentration has been rising in a straight line towards just 575 ppm by 2100".

See Trends in Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory)
See SPPI Monthly CO2 Report: March 2009 (Science and Public Policy Institute)

"The observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)".

See Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected? (Stephen E. Schwartz et al. - AMS Online Journals)

"Global tropical cyclone activity remains near 30-year+ lows".

See Ryan N. Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update

All these negate a positive CO₂ feedback effect on the level of H₂O, justifying skepticism.

Taking Earth's temperature (UAH):

"In early November 1978 a microwave sensor aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's TIROS polar-orbiting satellite started scanning the Earth's atmosphere."

"The 1997-1998 "El Niño of the century" made 1998 the hottest calendar year during the 28+ year record, with an annual average temperature that was 0.47° C (0.85° F) warmer than normal."

"There is no scientific evidence to support the belief that Earth's climate is stable and will not change if human activity does not intervene."

"While the approximately 0.14° C per decade of global warming seen in the satellite data is minor compared to the scale of some past climate shifts, it reminds us that the natural processes of climate change have not stopped."

"Looking at the history of paleoclimate data indicates that the climate is capable of significant changes for reasons that are not understood."

"The current level of knowledge about the climate doesn't provide the tools needed to predict when rapid natural climate changes will occur and what forms it might take.
This makes it impossible to say with high confidence how much human factors might influence climate change."

"The first thing is to do no harm. With the threat of catastrophic climate change, many proposals have been put forward to limit energy use."

"A fundamental point that needs to be understood is that if any of these proposals (including the Kyoto protocol) are implemented, they will have an effect on the climate so small that it cannot be detected.
None of these proposals will change what the climate is doing enough to notice."

"Those are good reasons not to artificially force energy prices up. While raising energy costs might damage the economy, it would disproportionately hurt the poor, especially those people living on the world's social and economic fringes."

"While the extent of human impacts on global climate change remains uncertain, research by our colleagues at UAH confirms that deforestation and land conversion are changing regional weather patterns and the local climate over some parts of the world.
We should encourage and support the scientists and engineers who will develop new sources of low-cost energy."

"Ironically, actions that artificially inflate the cost of energy might hamper those efforts, as healthy economies can better afford to find and develop alternative energy sources and cleaner energy technologies."

See Taking Earth's temperature (University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)

Man-made global warming has not been scientifically proven, while significant reasons for considering this hypothesis as incorrect have been presented:

The Polish Academy of Sciences:

"The Earth's climate has predominantly been warmer than at present. However, there has been some significant cooling that resulted in the development of extensive glaciations, in some of which ice sheets even reached the tropics. Therefore, any reliable forecasts of climate change, before discussion of prevention or neutralization, should take into account evidence from the geological past when, obviously, neither humans nor industry affected the Earth."

"During the last 400 thousand years - still without anthropogenic greenhouse influence - the content of carbon dioxide in the air, as indicated by ice cores from Antarctica, was repeatedly 4 times at similar or even slightly higher level than at present."

"In the past millennium, after warm medieval ages, by the end of the 13th century a cold period started and lasted up to the middle of the 19th century, then gave pace to another warm period in which we are living now. The phenomena observed today, specifically a temporary rise of global temperature, just reflect a natural rhythm of climate change."

"Instrumental monitoring of climate parameters has been carried out for only slightly more than 200 years and exclusively on some parts of the continents that constitute a small part of the Earth. Several older measurement stations once set up in suburbs now appear, due to progressive urbanization, in the town centers which results among other effects in increased values of the measured temperatures. Profound examination of the oceans was initiated 40 years ago. Reliable climatic models must not be based on such a short measurement data base. Therefore, considerable restraint is desirable if ascribing exclusive or predominant responsibility to man for increased emission of greenhouse gases. The reality of such arbitrary statement on human influence has not been demonstrated."

"It is certain that increased content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is connected partly with human activity. Therefore, all steps that restrain this emission and agree with principles of sustainable development should be taken, starting from a cease of extensive deforestation, especially in tropical areas."

See Attitude of the Committee of Geological Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences to the question of impending of global warming (February 12 '09, .pdf)

E-mails leaked out of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia show scientists colluding to distort data to favor the man-made global warming hypothesis and suppress opinion and scientific works opposing it.
Scientists from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia are leading authors and contributors of the IPCC Assessment Reports on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UNEP).

These distorted data are the "physical" basis for "Global Warming" and "Climate Change".

See Climate Emails Stoke Debate (Keith Johnson, The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 23 '09)
See What the Global Warming Emails Reveal (Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 24 '09)
See The Climate Science Isn't Settled (Richard S. Lindzen, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1 '09)
See Climategate: Follow the Money (Bret Stephens, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1 '09)
See How to Manufacture a Climate Consensus (Patrick J. Michaels, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 17 '09)
Ver The Continuing Climate Meltdown (Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 16 '10)

See East Anglia Confirmed Emails from the Climate Research Unit (Searchable)

Science is not based on models but on autentic measurements. Models must be based on science, not the other way around.

The climate in Venus is controlled by an atmospheric 'greenhouse effect' because CO₂ is near 97% in its atmosphere, on Earth, CO₂ is some 0.06%; probably not enough to cause a 'greenhouse effect'.
According to many climatologists and the IPCC climate models, there is a positive feedback action amplifying the CO₂ effect to be much more potent, but this theoretical effect has not been actually measured in practice.

Understanding that a trace amount of CO₂ can not be a main cause of an atmospheric 'greenhouse effect' means we are more in control of the quality of the air. We are more responsible for our planet regarding the atmospheric pollution we cause, and pollution must be minimized for the water and the ground too. Extensive deforestation must cease too.

References:

AccuWeather.com: Global Warming News, Science, Myths, Articles
Anthropogenic Global Warming - Fact or Hoax? (A Middlebury Community Network editorial by James A. Peden)
C3 Headlines (Climate Cycle Changes)
Calamitology.com (Steve Schulin, Discussion of exaggerated claims about climate science)
Carlin Economics and Science (Dr. Alan Carlin, Ph.D. in Economics, B.S. in Physics)
Christopher Booker's comment, columns and opinion (Telegraph.co.uk)
Climate Audit (Steve McIntyre)
Climate Change Fraud (Because the debate is not over)
Climate Change Reconsidered (2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change [NIPCC])
Climategate (Anthropogenic Global Warming, history's biggest scam)
Climate Realists (Real explanations as to what has made our climate change)
Climate Research News (Bridging the gap between reality and official science)
Climate Review (Home of the movie "Church of Global Warming", James Follett, 1hr. - Free)
Climate Scam (Review of the Climate Change News)
CO2 Science (Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change)
Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker)
Global Warming (Roy Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)
Global Warming at a glance (JunkScience.com)
Global Warming Facts (The Heartland Institute)
Global Warming - Introduction (West Virginia Plant Fossils)
 - Global Warming: A closer look at the numbers
Global Warming Science (Applied Information Systems - AppInSys, Alan Cheetham)
 - AIS Climate Data Visualizer (Global Historical Climate Network temperature data graphing - from NOAA, HadCRU)
Global Warming: The Other Side (Part 1) (Joseph D'Aleo, E. Michael Smith, Video, John Coleman, KUSI - News, Weather and Sports - San Diego, CA)
 - Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, The Amazing Story Behind the Global Warming Scam.
 - Continued in Global Warming: Meltdown - Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.
International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP)
Minnesotans for Global Warming (M4GW)
 - Hide the Decline - Climategate (Musical Video)
NOconsensus.org (No Scientific Consensus on Global Warming. Donna Laframboise, Toronto, Canada)
San Francisco Environmental Policy Examiner (Thomas Fuller)
Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI)
 - 35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore's movie (Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Oct. 19 '07)
Seminole County Environmental News Examiner (Kirk Myers)
 - New research into greenhouse effect challenges theory of man-made global warming (Dr. F. Miskolczi, Feb. 9 '10)
 - Former NASA scientist defends theory refuting global warming doctrine (Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, February 12 '10)
The Air Vent (by Jeff Id)
The Case for Skepticism on Global Warming (Michael Crichton, January 25, 2005)
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Martin Durkin, 10 min. video in YouTube, Produced by WAGTV)
The Real Inconvenient Truth: Greenhouse, global warming and some facts (JunkScience.com)
The Resilient Earth (Science, Global Warming and the Fate of Humanity)
 - The Resilient Earth (.pdf Downloadable Book. Doug L. Hoffman & Allen Simmons, 2008 - Free)
Watts Up With That? (by Anthony Watts)
World Climate Report (Chief Editor: Patrick J. Michaels)

Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO₂ Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics
(.pdf, 1.5 MB, Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner, Version 4.0, January 6, 2009)
The Thermostat Hypothesis (Willis Eschenbach, Watts Up With That?, June 14 '09)
Global warming: Our best guess is likely wrong (Jade Boyd, Rice University News, Jul. 14 '09)
What happened to global warming? (BBC NEWS | Science & Environment, Oct. 9 '09)
Not Evil Just Wrong (Documentary film, Phelim McAleer and Ann McElhinney, Oct. 18 '09)
The real climate change catastrophe (Christopher Booker, Telegraph.co.uk, Oct. 25 '09)

Arctic Climate Change (University of Illinois)
 - Polar Sea Ice Cap and Snow - Cryosphere Today
Centre for Ocean and Ice (COI) (Danish Meteorological Institute)
Climate Change (NASA)
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (NOAA)
Climatic Research Unit (CRU) (University of East Anglia)
Data of Sea Ice Extent (IARC-JAXA)
Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (NOAA)
 - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño: online meteorology guide (WW2010, University of Illinois)
El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere (The National Academies)
Global Warming (NASA Worldbook)
Global Warming Facts, Causes, Effects, Solutions (National Geographic)
IPCC Reports - Climate Change (UNEP)
 - Vital Climate Graphics - Update 2005 (UNEP/GRID-Arendal)
National Snow Analyses NOAA-NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
National Weather Service (NWS) Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Ian Bell, Martin Visbeck, Columbia University)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (David B. Stephenson, Exeter University)
Observing the Earth - Understanding Our Planet (European Space Agency - ESA)
Ocean Surface Topography from Space (NASA-JPL, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason)
PALEOMAP Project (Earth & Climate History, Christopher R. Scotese)
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
Securing Our Environment (European Space Agency - ESA)
Solar Physics (Marshall Space Flight Center)
State of the Climate (NOAA National Climatic Data Center - NCDC)
Taking Earth's temperature (University of Alabama in Huntsville - UAH)
 - Daily Earth Temperatures from Satellites (AMSU-A Temperatures)
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Project (Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array, NOAA)
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (NASA - JAXA)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (United Nations)

Musical Theme:
Santana - You've got to Change Your Evil Ways - Lissajous Patterns showing complex phase L and R chs
(Tektronix 465B Oscilloscope, YouTube)

Observatorio ARVAL - Meteorology for South Florida and the Caribbean - Global Warming?

This page was updated in: March 21 '10

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Spanish: Cambio Climático

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